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We Think Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd (SZSE:002453) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

We Think Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd (SZSE:002453) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

我们认为 Great Chinasoft Technology Ltd(SZE: 002453)正在冒一些债务风险
Simply Wall St ·  2023/01/09 19:20

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Great Chinasoft Technology Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:002453) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

巴菲特(Warren Buffett)曾说过一句名言:波动性远非风险的代名词。因此,当你评估一家公司的风险有多大时,聪明的投资者似乎知道债务--通常涉及破产--是一个非常重要的因素。我们注意到大华软科技有限公司。(SZSE:002453)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但更重要的问题是:这笔债务造成了多大的风险?

When Is Debt A Problem?

什么时候债务是个问题?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

一般来说,只有当一家公司无法轻松偿还债务时,债务才会成为一个真正的问题,无论是通过筹集资金还是用自己的现金流。在最糟糕的情况下,如果一家公司无法偿还债权人的债务,它可能会破产。然而,一种更常见(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,一家公司必须以低廉的股价稀释股东的股份,才能控制债务。当然,债务的好处是,它往往代表着廉价资本,特别是当它用能够以高回报率进行再投资的能力取代公司的稀释时。当考虑一家企业使用了多少债务时,首先要做的是把现金和债务放在一起看。

Check out our latest analysis for Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd

查看我们对Great ChinaSoft科技有限公司的最新分析

What Is Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's Net Debt?

中软科技有限公司的净债务是多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2022 Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd had debt of CN¥836.4m, up from CN¥710.4m in one year. On the flip side, it has CN¥555.9m in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥280.6m.

下面的图片,你可以点击查看更多细节,显示了截至2022年9月,中软科技有限公司的债务为8.364亿加元,高于一年内的7.104亿加元。另一方面,它拥有5.559亿加元的现金,导致净债务约为2.806亿加元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:002453 Debt to Equity History January 10th 2023
深交所:002453债转股历史2023年1月10日

How Strong Is Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's Balance Sheet?

大华软科技有限公司的资产负债表有多强?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd had liabilities of CN¥1.31b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥24.2m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥555.9m and CN¥716.3m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥59.0m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

根据最新报告的资产负债表,大中软科技有限公司有13.1亿加元的负债在12个月内到期,2420万加元的负债在12个月后到期。另一方面,它有5.559亿加元的现金和7.163亿加元的应收账款在一年内到期。因此,它的负债总额比现金和近期应收账款加起来还要多5900万元。

This state of affairs indicates that Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's balance sheet looks quite solid, as its total liabilities are just about equal to its liquid assets. So while it's hard to imagine that the CN¥10.3b company is struggling for cash, we still think it's worth monitoring its balance sheet.

这种情况表明,大中软科技有限公司的资产负债表看起来相当稳健,其总负债与流动资产大致相同。因此,尽管很难想象这家103亿元人民币的公司正在为现金而苦苦挣扎,但我们仍然认为值得监控其资产负债表。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

为了评估一家公司的债务相对于它的收益,我们计算它的净债务除以它的利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA)和它的利息和税前收益(EBIT)除以它的利息支出(它的利息覆盖)。这样,我们既考虑了债务的绝对量,也考虑了为其支付的利率。

Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's net debt is 3.2 times its EBITDA, which is a significant but still reasonable amount of leverage. However, its interest coverage of 1k is very high, suggesting that the interest expense on the debt is currently quite low. Shareholders should be aware that Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's EBIT was down 90% last year. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

伟大的中软科技有限公司的净债务是其EBITDA的3.2倍,这是一个相当可观但仍然合理的杠杆率。然而,其1k的利息覆盖率非常高,这表明债务的利息支出目前相当低。股东们应该知道,大中软科技有限公司的息税前利润去年下降了90%。如果这种盈利趋势持续下去,那么偿还债务就像把猫赶上过山车一样容易。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个起点。但你不能完全孤立地看待债务,因为伟大的中软科技有限公司需要盈利来偿还债务。因此,如果你热衷于了解更多关于它的收益,可能值得查看一下它的长期收益趋势图。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last two years, Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

但我们的最后考虑也很重要,因为一家公司不能用账面利润来偿还债务;它需要冷硬现金。因此,合乎逻辑的一步是看看息税前利润与实际自由现金流相匹配的比例。在过去的两年里,大中软科技有限公司烧掉了大量现金。尽管投资者无疑预计这种情况会在适当的时候逆转,但这显然意味着它使用债务的风险更大。

Our View

我们的观点

Neither Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's ability to grow its EBIT nor its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to cover its interest expense with its EBIT with ease. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd's debt poses some risks to the business. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Great Chinasoft TechnologyLtd .

无论是中软科技有限公司提高息税前利润的能力,还是将息税前利润转换为自由现金流的能力,都没有让我们对其承担更多债务的能力产生信心。但好消息是,它似乎能够轻松地用息税前利润来弥补利息支出。综合上述因素,我们确实认为大中软科技有限公司的债务对业务构成了一些风险。因此,尽管杠杆率确实提高了股本回报率,但我们并不真的希望看到它从现在开始增加。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的债务最多。但归根结底,每家公司都可能包含存在于资产负债表之外的风险。为此,您应该意识到1个警告标志我们发现了伟大的中软科技有限公司。

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

如果你对一家增长迅速、资产负债表坚如磐石的公司更感兴趣,那么请立即查看我们的净现金成长型股票清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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