It's normal to be annoyed when stock you own has a declining share price. But sometimes a share price fall can have more to do with market conditions than the performance of the specific business. The Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd. (HKG:1658) is down 14% over a year, but the total shareholder return is -10% once you include the dividend. And that total return actually beats the market decline of 21%. On the other hand, the stock is actually up 9.5% over three years. In the last ninety days we've seen the share price slide 16%.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
View our latest analysis for Postal Savings Bank of China
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the unfortunate twelve months during which the Postal Savings Bank of China share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 12%. Of course, the situation might betray previous over-optimism about growth.
The divergence between the EPS and the share price is quite notable, during the year. So it's well worth checking out some other metrics, too.
Postal Savings Bank of China's dividend seems healthy to us, so we doubt that the yield is a concern for the market. The revenue trend doesn't seem to explain why the share price is down. Unless, of course, the market was expecting a revenue uptick.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
SEHK:1658 Earnings and Revenue Growth August 12th 2022
Postal Savings Bank of China is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. You can see what analysts are predicting for Postal Savings Bank of China in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Postal Savings Bank of China, it has a TSR of -10% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
While it's never nice to take a loss, Postal Savings Bank of China shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 10% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 21%. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 6%, each year, over five years. It could be that the business is just facing some short term problems, but shareholders should keep a close eye on the fundamentals. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Postal Savings Bank of China , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
当你拥有的股票股价下跌时,感到恼火是正常的。但有时,股价下跌可能更多地与市场状况有关,而不是特定业务的表现。这个邮储银行股份有限公司。(HKG:1658)一年来下跌了14%,但如果计入股息,总股东回报率为-10%。这一总回报率实际上超过了21%的市场跌幅。另一方面,股票实际上是向上三年内增长9.5%。在过去的90天里,我们看到股价下跌了16%。
考虑到这一点,值得关注的是,该公司的潜在基本面是长期业绩的驱动力,还是存在一些差异。
查看我们对邮储银行的最新分析
本杰明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的原话是:短期内,市场是一台投票机,但从长远来看,它是一台称重机。评估围绕一家公司的情绪变化的一个有缺陷但合理的方法是将每股收益(EPS)与股价进行比较。
不幸的是,在邮储银行股价下跌的12个月里,它的每股收益(EPS)提高了12%。当然,这种情况可能会暴露出之前对增长的过度乐观。
在这一年中,每股收益和股价之间的背离相当明显。因此,也有必要检查一下其他一些指标。
邮储银行的股息在我们看来似乎是健康的,所以我们怀疑收益率是市场关注的问题。营收趋势似乎无法解释股价下跌的原因。当然,除非市场预期收入会上升。
您可以在下图中看到收益和收入随时间的变化(单击图表查看确切的值)。
联交所:1658盈利及收入增长2022年8月12日
邮储银行是一只知名的股票,有大量的分析师报道,这表明对未来的增长有一定的可见性。你可以在这里看到分析师们对邮储银行的预测互动未来利润预估图表。
那股息呢?
除了衡量股价回报外,投资者还应考虑总股东回报(TSR)。TSR是一种回报计算,计入了现金股息的价值(假设收到的任何股息都进行了再投资),以及任何贴现融资和剥离的计算价值。公平地说,TSR为支付股息的股票提供了更完整的图景。以邮储银行为例,最近1年的总资产收益率为-10%。这超过了我们之前提到的它的股价回报。这在很大程度上是其股息支付的结果!
不同的视角
虽然亏损从来都不是好事,但邮储银行的股东们可以感到欣慰的是,包括股息在内,他们过去12个月的亏损10%并没有市场上21%左右的亏损那么糟糕。较长期的投资者不会如此沮丧,因为他们在五年内每年会获得6%的收益。可能该业务只是面临一些短期问题,但股东应密切关注基本面。我发现,把股价作为衡量企业业绩的长期指标是非常有趣的。但为了真正获得洞察力,我们还需要考虑其他信息。例如,考虑一下无处不在的投资风险幽灵。我们已经确定了1个警告信号与邮储银行的合作,了解他们应该是你投资过程的一部分。
如果你更愿意看看另一家公司--一家财务状况可能更好的公司--那么不要错过这一点免费已证明自己能够实现盈利增长的公司名单。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。