It's been a good week for Essent Group Ltd. (NYSE:ESNT) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 3.9% to US$55.76. Essent Group reported US$298m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.70 beat expectations, being 6.6% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Following the latest results, Essent Group's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.23b in 2024. This would be a meaningful 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$6.71, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.21b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.59 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$61.90, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Essent Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$65.00 and the most bearish at US$57.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Essent Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.8% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.4% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Essent Group to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$61.90, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Essent Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Essent Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Essent Group is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.