Last week, you might have seen that CMOC Group Limited (HKG:3993) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.0% to HK$7.40 in the past week. It was a negative result overall, with revenues coming in 15% less than what the analysts expected, at CN¥46b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

After the latest results, the 18 analysts covering CMOC Group are now predicting revenues of CN¥217.0b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a decent 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 3.2% to CN¥0.48. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥206.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.49 in 2024. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest results. Although there was a a decent to revenue, the consensus also made a small dip in its earnings per share forecasts.

The analysts also upgraded CMOC Group's price target 6.1% to HK$8.68, implying that the higher revenue expected to generate enough value to offset the forecast decline in earnings. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic CMOC Group analyst has a price target of HK$11.19 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$6.98. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of CMOC Group'shistorical trends, as the 21% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 25% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 7.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that CMOC Group is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for CMOC Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.