Using the Dividend Discount Model, HK Electric Investments and HK Electric Investments fair value estimate is HK$5.44
HK Electric Investments and HK Electric Investments' HK$4.78 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
Our fair value estimate is 6.1% lower than HK Electric Investments and HK Electric Investments' analyst price target of HK$5.79
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of HK Electric Investments and HK Electric Investments Limited (HKG:2638) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
The Method
We have to calculate the value of HK Electric Investments and HK Electric Investments slightly differently to other stocks because it is a electric utilities company. In this approach dividends per share (DPS) are used, as free cash flow is difficult to estimate and often not reported by analysts. Unless a company pays out the majority of its FCF as a dividend, this method will typically underestimate the value of the stock. We use the Gordon Growth Model, which assumes dividend will grow into perpetuity at a rate that can be sustained. The dividend is expected to grow at an annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We then discount this figure to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.4%. Relative to the current share price of HK$4.8, the company appears about fair value at a 12% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate)
= HK$0.3 / (6.4% – 2.0%)
= HK$5.4
SEHK:2638 Discounted Cash Flow March 5th 2024
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at HK Electric Investments and HK Electric Investments as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for HK Electric Investments and HK Electric Investments
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded its 5-year average.
Debt is well covered by earnings.
Balance sheet summary for 2638.
Weakness
Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Electric Utilities industry.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Electric Utilities market.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 4 years.
Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Dividends are not covered by earnings and cashflows.
Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market.
Is 2638 well equipped to handle threats?
Moving On:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For HK Electric Investments and HK Electric Investments, there are three relevant aspects you should consider:
Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for HK Electric Investments and HK Electric Investments you should know about.
Future Earnings: How does 2638's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
