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Is Chongqing Machinery & Electric (HKG:2722) A Risky Investment?

Is Chongqing Machinery & Electric (HKG:2722) A Risky Investment?

重庆机电(HKG: 2722)是一项风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  2023/11/20 17:24

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Chongqing Machinery & Electric Co., Ltd. (HKG:2722) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

由伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李璐对此毫不掩饰,他说:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性的资本损失。”因此,当你评估公司的风险时,聪明的货币似乎知道债务——通常与破产有关——是一个非常重要的因素。我们注意到,重庆机电股份有限公司(HKG: 2722)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但是,股东是否应该担心其使用债务?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

为什么债务会带来风险?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

债务为企业提供帮助,直到企业难以用新的资本或自由现金流还清债务。最终,如果公司无法履行偿还债务的法律义务,股东可能一无所有地离开。但是,更频繁(但仍然代价高昂)的情况是,公司必须以低廉的价格发行股票,永久稀释股东,以支撑其资产负债表。当然,债务的好处是它通常代表廉价资本,尤其是当它用高回报率进行再投资的能力取代了公司的稀释时。考虑公司债务水平的第一步是将其现金和债务放在一起考虑。

See our latest analysis for Chongqing Machinery & Electric

查看我们对重庆机电的最新分析

How Much Debt Does Chongqing Machinery & Electric Carry?

重庆机电背负了多少债务?

As you can see below, Chongqing Machinery & Electric had CN¥2.97b of debt, at June 2023, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it does have CN¥2.68b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥287.3m.

如下所示,截至2023年6月,重庆机电的债务为29.7亿元人民币,与前一年大致相同。您可以单击图表以获取更多详细信息。但是,它确实有26.8亿元人民币的现金抵消了这一点,导致净负债约为2.873亿元人民币。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SEHK:2722 Debt to Equity History November 20th 2023
香港交易所:2722 债权与股权历史记录 2023 年 11 月 20 日

A Look At Chongqing Machinery & Electric's Liabilities

看看重庆机电的负债

According to the last reported balance sheet, Chongqing Machinery & Electric had liabilities of CN¥7.58b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥2.19b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥2.68b as well as receivables valued at CN¥6.20b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥888.9m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

根据上次公布的资产负债表,重庆机电在12个月内到期的负债为75.8亿元人民币,12个月后到期的负债为21.9亿元人民币。为了抵消这些债务,它有26.8亿元人民币的现金以及价值62.0亿元人民币的应收账款,将在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款的总和高出8.889亿元人民币。

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Chongqing Machinery & Electric has a market capitalization of CN¥2.48b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

尽管这可能看起来很多,但情况还不错,因为重庆机电的市值为24.8亿元人民币,因此,如果需要,它可能会通过筹集资金来加强资产负债表。但很明显,我们绝对应该仔细研究它能否在不稀释的情况下管理债务。

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

我们通过以下方法来衡量公司的债务负担与其盈利能力:将其净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前的收益(EBITDA),并计算其利息和税前收益(EBIT)支付利息支出(利息保障)的难易程度。因此,我们将债务与收益的关系考虑在内,包括和不包括折旧和摊销费用。

Chongqing Machinery & Electric has a low debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.0. And remarkably, despite having net debt, it actually received more in interest over the last twelve months than it had to pay. So there's no doubt this company can take on debt while staying cool as a cucumber. Fortunately, Chongqing Machinery & Electric grew its EBIT by 9.3% in the last year, making that debt load look even more manageable. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Chongqing Machinery & Electric's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

重庆机电的债务与息税折旧摊销前利润的比率很低,仅为1.0。值得注意的是,尽管有净负债,但在过去的十二个月中,它获得的利息实际上超过了它必须支付的利息。因此,毫无疑问,这家公司可以在像黄瓜一样保持冷静的同时承担债务。幸运的是,重庆机电去年其息税前利润增长了9.3%,这使得债务负担看起来更加可控。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是起点。但是,重庆机电的收益将影响未来资产负债表的表现。因此,如果你想进一步了解其收益,可能值得看看这张长期收益趋势图。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Chongqing Machinery & Electric actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. There's nothing better than incoming cash when it comes to staying in your lenders' good graces.

但是我们的最终考虑因素也很重要,因为公司无法用纸面利润偿还债务;它需要冷硬现金。因此,我们显然需要研究息税前利润是否带来了相应的自由现金流。在过去的三年中,重庆机电产生的自由现金流实际上超过了息税前利润。在保持贷款人的信任方面,没有什么比现金流入更好的了。

Our View

我们的观点

The good news is that Chongqing Machinery & Electric's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is also very heartening. When we consider the range of factors above, it looks like Chongqing Machinery & Electric is pretty sensible with its use of debt. While that brings some risk, it can also enhance returns for shareholders. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Chongqing Machinery & Electric (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.

好消息是,重庆机电表现出有能力通过息税前利润支付利息支出,这让我们感到高兴,就像毛茸茸的小狗对待幼童一样。这仅仅是好消息的开始,因为它将息税前利润转换为自由现金流也非常令人振奋。当我们考虑上述一系列因素时,看来重庆机电使用债务是相当明智的。尽管这会带来一些风险,但也可以提高股东的回报。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但是,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中——远非如此。例如,我们已经确定了重庆机电的3个警告标志(其中一个令人担忧),你应该注意。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

当然,如果你是那种喜欢在没有债务负担的情况下购买股票的投资者,那么请立即查看我们的独家净现金增长股票清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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