Vicor Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
Vicor Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
One of the biggest stories of last week was how Vicor Corporation (NASDAQ:VICR) shares plunged 26% in the week since its latest third-quarter results, closing yesterday at US$39.94. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$108m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Vicor surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.37 per share, a notable 17% above expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
上周最大的新闻之一是维柯公司纳斯达克(Sequoia Capital：VICR)股价自最新公布第三季度业绩以来，本周暴跌26%，昨日收于39.94美元。总体而言，这看起来是一个可信的结果-尽管1.08亿美元的收入与分析师的预测一致，但Vicor出人意料地实现了每股0.37美元的法定利润，比预期高出17%。盈利对投资者来说是一个重要的时刻，因为他们可以跟踪一家公司的表现，看看分析师对明年的预测，以及对该公司的情绪是否发生了变化。我们认为，读者会发现看到分析师对明年最新(法定)盈利后的预测会很有趣。
See our latest analysis for Vicor
查看我们对Vicor的最新分析
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Vicor from three analysts is for revenues of US$439.6m in 2024. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 5.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$1.19, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$489.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.45 in 2024. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about Vicor's prospects following the latest results, administering a real cut to revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.
考虑到最新的业绩，三位分析师对Vicor的最新共识是2024年营收为4.396亿美元。如果得到满足，这将意味着该公司在过去12个月的收入将增长5.2%，令人满意。预计每股法定收益为1.19美元，与过去12个月基本一致。然而，在最新财报公布之前，分析师曾预计2024年营收为4.897亿美元，每股收益(EPS)为1.45美元。事实上，我们可以看到，在最新业绩公布后，分析师们对维多的前景更加悲观，实际削减了收入预期，并大幅下调了每股收益预期。
The consensus price target fell 8.4% to US$69.33, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Vicor analyst has a price target of US$75.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$65.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
共识目标价下跌8.4%，至69.33美元，较弱的盈利前景显然领先于估值预期。然而，这并不是我们可以从这些数据中得出的唯一结论，因为一些投资者在评估分析师的价格目标时，也喜欢考虑预期中的价差。最乐观的Vicor分析师将目标价定为每股75.00美元，而最悲观的分析师则认为目标价为65.00美元。在如此狭窄的估值范围内，分析师们显然对他们认为的企业价值有着相似的看法。
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Vicor's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Vicor's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 10.0% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Vicor.
这些估计很有趣，但当看到预测如何与Vicor过去的表现和同行业同行进行比较时，描绘一些更宽泛的笔触可能会很有用。我们要强调的是，Vicor的收入增长预计将放缓，截至2024年底的预测年化增长率为4.1%，远低于历史上10.0%的年增长率。过去五年的增长。相比之下，该行业的其他公司(与分析师预测的)相比，预计收入将以每年6.8%的速度增长。因此，很明显，虽然收入增长预计会放缓，但整个行业的增长速度预计也会快于维高。
The Bottom Line
底线
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
最重要的是，分析师们下调了他们的每股收益预期，表明业绩公布后，市场人气明显下降。不利的一面是，他们还下调了营收预期，预测表明，他们的表现将逊于整个行业。此外，分析师还下调了他们的目标价，这表明最新消息导致人们对该业务的内在价值更加悲观。
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Vicor going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..
根据这一思路，我们认为，业务的长期前景比明年的收益更相关。在Simply Wall St.，我们有全方位的分析师对维柯到2025年的预测，你可以在我们的平台上免费看到。
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Vicor has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
例如，你仍然需要注意风险--维克多1个警告标志我们认为你应该意识到。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写，具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论，我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议，也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意，我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。