China Ocean Group Development Limited (HKG:8047) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 36% after a shaky period beforehand. Longer-term shareholders would be thankful for the recovery in the share price since it's now virtually flat for the year after the recent bounce.

After such a large jump in price, you could be forgiven for thinking China Ocean Group Development is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 2.6x, considering almost half the companies in Hong Kong's Logistics industry have P/S ratios below 0.3x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

Check out our latest analysis for China Ocean Group Development

What Does China Ocean Group Development's Recent Performance Look Like?

For example, consider that China Ocean Group Development's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

China Ocean Group Development's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 28%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 75% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 7.7% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that China Ocean Group Development's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Bottom Line On China Ocean Group Development's P/S

China Ocean Group Development's P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Our examination of China Ocean Group Development revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.

Having said that, be aware China Ocean Group Development is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 2 of those are potentially serious.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on China Ocean Group Development, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.