Today is shaping up negative for K. Wah International Holdings Limited (HKG:173) shareholders, with the covering analyst delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as the analyst signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well.
After the downgrade, the consensus from K. Wah International Holdings' lone analyst is for revenues of HK$11b in 2022, which would reflect a concerning 44% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to dive 61% to HK$0.45 in the same period. Before this latest update, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of HK$16b and earnings per share (EPS) of HK$0.50 in 2022. Indeed, we can see that analyst sentiment has declined measurably after the new consensus came out, with a sizeable cut to revenue estimates and a minor downgrade to EPS estimates to boot.
Check out our latest analysis for K. Wah International Holdings
SEHK:173 Earnings and Revenue Growth August 26th 2022
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the HK$3.84 price target, showing that the analyst don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the K. Wah International Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 44% by the end of 2022. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.4% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 8.7% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that K. Wah International Holdings' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest issue in the new estimates is that the analyst has reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for K. Wah International Holdings. Unfortunately the analyst also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that K. Wah International Holdings' revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on K. Wah International Holdings after today.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2023, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
今天对我们来说是负面的嘉华国际控股有限公司(HKG:173)股东,跟踪分析师对今年的预测进行了大幅负面修订。由于分析师暗示前景较弱,营收预期大幅下调--或许这是一个迹象,表明投资者也应该降低预期。
在评级下调后,嘉华国际控股的唯一分析师一致认为,2022年的收入将达到110亿港元,这将反映出与去年业绩相比,销售额下降了约44%。同期法定每股收益预计将暴跌61%,至0.45港元。在此次最新数据更新之前,该分析师一直预测2022年营收为160亿港元,每股收益(EPS)为0.50港元。事实上,我们可以看到,在新的共识公布后,分析师的信心已经明显下降,营收预期大幅下调,每股收益预期也略有下调。
查看我们对嘉华国际控股的最新分析
联交所:173盈利及收入增长2022年8月26日
尽管下调了预期收益,但3.84港元的目标价并未发生实际变化,这表明分析师认为这些变化不会对其内在价值产生重大影响。
这些估计很有趣,但在观察预测与嘉华国际控股过去的业绩和同行业同行的预测进行比较时,勾勒出一些更宽泛的线条可能会很有用。这些估计意味着销售预计将放缓,预计到2022年底年化收入将下降44%。这表明,与过去五年9.4%的年增长率相比,这一数字大幅下降。相比之下,我们的数据表明,在可预见的未来,同一行业的其他公司(有分析师覆盖)的收入预计将以每年8.7%的速度增长。很明显,嘉华国际控股的营收预计将远远逊于整个行业。
底线
新的预估中最大的问题是,分析师下调了他们的每股收益预估,这表明嘉华国际控股的业务逆风还在后头。不幸的是,分析师也下调了他们的营收预期,行业数据显示,嘉华国际控股的营收增速预计将低于大盘。考虑到投资者情绪的急剧变化,如果投资者在今天之后对嘉华国际控股变得更加谨慎,我们会理解的。
尽管如此,该业务的长期前景比明年的收益更具相关性。至少有一位分析师提供了对2023年的预测,这可以在我们的平台上免费看到。
当然,看到公司管理层投资大笔资金投资一只股票,就像知道分析师是否在下调他们的预期一样有用。所以你可能也想搜索一下这个免费内部人士正在买入的股票清单。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。