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Dollar's upward march reaches a nearly two-year high
Dollar's upward march reaches a nearly two-year high
By Julia-Ambra Verlaine
The dollar is reaching fresh nearly two-year highs, lifted by looming interest-rate increases from the Federal Reserve, strong U.S. growth and geopolitical jitters overseas.
The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. currency against a group of 16 others, has climbed in 13 of 15 sessions to its highest levels since May 2020. The dollar has gained more than 10% versus the Japanese yen this year and more than 5% against the euro. The index slipped 0.6% Wednesday.
This year's climb brings the dollar back toward levels hit during the pandemic market panic of March 2020, when investors world-wide piled into the currency, causing a global shortage and intervention from the Fed. It boosts profits at companies that import goods from abroad, and the purchasing power of consumers buying from overseas. It also threatens to hurt multinationals by making their products less competitive abroad, while increasing the cost of converting foreign revenues into the U.S. currency.
One major factor lifting the dollar: expectations that U.S. growth will outpace the recovery elsewhere, with the Fed signaling a rapid course of interest-rate increases to tame inflation.
U.S. government bond yields have jumped to multiyear highs as investors brace themselves for the most-aggressive pace of rate increases in more than 15 years. Market-based measures show investors expect the Fed will lift its benchmark federal-funds rate to 3% by year-end, and higher rates tend to attract yield-seeking investors to a currency.
"The dollar typically performs in two extremes: in a scenario of risk aversion, or in a scenario where the U.S. is a clear outperformer," said Kristen Macleod, co-head of global foreign exchange sales at Barclays. "What we have seen over the past couple of months -- since the Russia-Ukraine conflict kicked off -- is the dollar is benefiting from a bit of both."
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has also buoyed the dollar, sparking a run to safe-haven investments while also threatening growth in Europe. The war is driving up prices in a region that relies heavily on energy imports from Russia, complicating the European Central Bank's task of tackling inflation while supporting growth. Last week the ECB indicated it would be slower to raise rates, lagging behind the Fed.
Some expect the dollar to lose ground over the next year. They contend that weakness in the stock market and one-off events in Europe -- including the French presidential election -- have driven the currency's aggressive gains this month. Some investors are buying derivatives tied to the Japanese yen that amount to bets the dollar has peaked and won't move past a certain level. They are buying call options known as "reverse knock-outs" that become worthless if the dollar moves much higher." Many of the trades people are putting on have an air of skepticism that the move will sustain past a certain point," said Jeff Yarmouth, global co-head of foreign exchange flow derivatives trading at UBS Group.
But unless U.S. economic data falters or the Fed walks back the rate increases it has laid out for financial markets, analysts say the dollar has more room to gain.
According to Morgan Stanley data that tracks client flows, asset managers and others have bought more dollars versus other currencies, reflecting steady optimism around the currency and the U.S. economy's prospects.
"We have found investors are increasingly long the dollar and are adding more to the topside," said David Adams, head of FX strategy at Morgan Stanley. "The key question is what is the global growth outlook versus the U.S. growth outlook over the next six to 12 months."
Write to Julia-Ambra Verlaine at julia.verlaine@wsj.com
By Julia-Ambra Verlaine
朱莉娅-安布拉·韦尔兰著
The dollar is reaching fresh nearly two-year highs, lifted by looming interest-rate increases from the Federal Reserve, strong U.S. growth and geopolitical jitters overseas.
受美联储(Federal Reserve)即将加息、美国经济强劲增长以及海外地缘政治不安的提振,美元汇率创下近两年来的新高。
The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. currency against a group of 16 others, has climbed in 13 of 15 sessions to its highest levels since May 2020. The dollar has gained more than 10% versus the Japanese yen this year and more than 5% against the euro. The index slipped 0.6% Wednesday.
衡量美元兑其他16种货币汇率的华尔街日报美元指数在15个交易日中有13个交易日攀升至2020年5月以来的最高水平。今年以来,美元兑日圆升值逾10%,兑欧元升值逾5%。该指数周三下滑0.6%。
This year's climb brings the dollar back toward levels hit during the pandemic market panic of March 2020, when investors world-wide piled into the currency, causing a global shortage and intervention from the Fed. It boosts profits at companies that import goods from abroad, and the purchasing power of consumers buying from overseas. It also threatens to hurt multinationals by making their products less competitive abroad, while increasing the cost of converting foreign revenues into the U.S. currency.
今年的攀升使美元回到了2020年3月大流行市场恐慌期间的水平,当时全球投资者纷纷涌入美元,导致全球货币短缺,美联储进行了干预。它提高了从国外进口商品的公司的利润,以及从海外购买商品的消费者的购买力。它还可能损害跨国公司的利益,因为它降低了跨国公司的产品在海外的竞争力,同时增加了将外国收入转换为美元的成本。
One major factor lifting the dollar: expectations that U.S. growth will outpace the recovery elsewhere, with the Fed signaling a rapid course of interest-rate increases to tame inflation.
提振美元的一个主要因素是:预计美国经济增长将超过其他地区的复苏,美联储暗示将迅速加息以抑制通胀。
U.S. government bond yields have jumped to multiyear highs as investors brace themselves for the most-aggressive pace of rate increases in more than 15 years. Market-based measures show investors expect the Fed will lift its benchmark federal-funds rate to 3% by year-end, and higher rates tend to attract yield-seeking investors to a currency.
随着投资者准备迎接15年来最激进的加息步伐,美国政府债券收益率跃升至多年来的最高水平。基于市场的衡量标准显示,投资者预计美联储将在年底前将基准联邦基金利率上调至3%,而更高的利率往往会吸引寻求收益的投资者转向一种货币。
"The dollar typically performs in two extremes: in a scenario of risk aversion, or in a scenario where the U.S. is a clear outperformer," said Kristen Macleod, co-head of global foreign exchange sales at Barclays. "What we have seen over the past couple of months -- since the Russia-Ukraine conflict kicked off -- is the dollar is benefiting from a bit of both."
巴克莱全球外汇销售联席主管克里斯汀·麦克劳德(Kristen Macleod)表示:“美元的表现通常有两个极端:一种是在避险情绪下,另一种是在美国表现明显优于美元的情况下。”“过去几个月--自俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突爆发以来--我们看到的是,美元同时受益于这两个因素。”
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has also buoyed the dollar, sparking a run to safe-haven investments while also threatening growth in Europe. The war is driving up prices in a region that relies heavily on energy imports from Russia, complicating the European Central Bank's task of tackling inflation while supporting growth. Last week the ECB indicated it would be slower to raise rates, lagging behind the Fed.
俄罗斯入侵乌克兰也提振了美元,引发了对避险投资的挤兑,同时也威胁到了欧洲的增长。这场战争正在推高这个严重依赖从俄罗斯进口能源的地区的价格,使欧洲央行在支持增长的同时应对通胀的任务变得更加复杂。上周,欧洲央行表示,加息的速度将会更慢,落后于美联储。
Some expect the dollar to lose ground over the next year. They contend that weakness in the stock market and one-off events in Europe -- including the French presidential election -- have driven the currency's aggressive gains this month. Some investors are buying derivatives tied to the Japanese yen that amount to bets the dollar has peaked and won't move past a certain level. They are buying call options known as "reverse knock-outs" that become worthless if the dollar moves much higher." Many of the trades people are putting on have an air of skepticism that the move will sustain past a certain point," said Jeff Yarmouth, global co-head of foreign exchange flow derivatives trading at UBS Group.
一些人预计美元将在明年走低。他们认为,股市的疲软和欧洲的一次性事件--包括法国总统大选--推动了欧元本月的大幅上涨。一些投资者正在购买与日圆挂钩的衍生品,这些衍生品相当于押注美元已经见顶,不会超过某个水平。他们正在买入被称为“反向敲出”的看涨期权,如果美元大幅走高,这些期权就会变得一文不值。瑞银集团(UBS Group)外汇流动衍生品交易全球联席主管杰夫·雅茅斯(Jeff Yarmouse)表示:“人们正在进行的许多交易都带着一种怀疑的气氛,怀疑此举能否在某个点位之后持续下去。”
But unless U.S. economic data falters or the Fed walks back the rate increases it has laid out for financial markets, analysts say the dollar has more room to gain.
但分析师表示,除非美国经济数据步履蹒跚,或者美联储收回其为金融市场制定的加息计划,否则美元有更大的上涨空间。
According to Morgan Stanley data that tracks client flows, asset managers and others have bought more dollars versus other currencies, reflecting steady optimism around the currency and the U.S. economy's prospects.
根据摩根士丹利追踪客户资金流的数据,资产管理公司和其他机构买入的美元比其他货币更多,反映出对美元汇率和美国经济前景的稳定乐观情绪。
"We have found investors are increasingly long the dollar and are adding more to the topside," said David Adams, head of FX strategy at Morgan Stanley. "The key question is what is the global growth outlook versus the U.S. growth outlook over the next six to 12 months."
摩根士丹利外汇策略主管戴维·亚当斯表示:“我们发现,投资者越来越多地做多美元,并在上方增加更多美元。”“关键问题是,未来6至12个月,全球经济增长前景与美国经济增长前景如何。”
Write to Julia-Ambra Verlaine at julia.verlaine@wsj.com
写信给Julia-Ambra Verlaine,电子邮件:julia.verlaine@wsj.com
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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