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JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says big risks loom for the U.S. economy
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says big risks loom for the U.S. economy
By David Benoit
$JPMorgan(JPM.US)$ Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said the U.S. economy is facing unprecedented risks that have him preparing for dramatic upheavals.
The head of the nation's biggest bank offered a largely upbeat view of the economy's health in his annual letter to shareholders Monday. Consumers and businesses are flush with cash, wages are rising and the economy is growing rapidly after its pandemic slowdown. While consumer confidence has declined, Mr. Dimon says the more important gauge is booming spending.
Yet Mr. Dimon warned that the war in Ukraine could collide with rising inflation to slow the pandemic recovery and alter global alliances for decades to come.
"They present completely different circumstances than what we've experienced in the past -- and their confluence may dramatically increase the risks ahead," Mr. Dimon wrote. "While it is possible, and hopeful, that all of these events will have peaceful resolutions, we should prepare for the potential negative outcomes."
Plenty has changed since Mr. Dimon's last shareholder letter. Last April, as the world emerged from the pandemic, he saw a chance for an economic "Goldilocks moment" -- fast, sustained growth alongside inflation and interest rates that drift slowly upward. Instead, growth was accompanied by inflation that well outpaced expectations.
"In hindsight, the medicine...was probably too much and lasted too long, " Mr. Dimon wrote in Monday's letter, referring to pandemic-era stimulus measures that kept consumers afloat and borrowing costs low.
Mr. Dimon warned that the Federal Reserve could move interest rates "significantly higher than the markets expect." The Fed began raising rates last month and signaled several more increases this year, including a potential half percentage point instead of the traditional quarter point at the next meeting.
"This process will cause lots of consternation and very volatile markets, " Mr. Dimon added.
Russia's war against Ukraine and Western sanctions meant to stop it will "at a minimum" slow the global economy, Mr. Dimon said. Oil, commodity and agriculture markets are already reeling, he said. The prospect of additional sanctions, which he supports, could "dramatically, and unpredictably, increase their effect."
"Along with the unpredictability of war itself and the uncertainty surrounding global commodity supply chains, this makes for a potentially explosive situation," Mr. Dimon said.
JPMorgan, he disclosed, could lose about $1 billion over time on its business in Russia.
Mr. Dimon renewed his call for a new Marshall Plan, referring to the U.S. initiative to help Western Europe rebuild after World War II. Energy investments, he said, are especially needed to wean the world off Russian oil and gas. He specifically called for the U.S. to issue permits for oil and gas projects and increased shipping of liquefied natural gas to Europe.
But Mr. Dimon said that ensuring current energy needs are met doesn't have to come at the expense of investments in green energy and broader efforts to reduce carbon emissions.
"We need to secure proper energy supplies immediately for the next few years, which can be done while reducing CO2 emissions," Mr. Dimon wrote.
Write to David Benoit at David.Benoit@wsj.com
By David Benoit
大卫·伯努瓦著
$JPMorgan(JPM.US)$ Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said the U.S. economy is facing unprecedented risks that have him preparing for dramatic upheavals.
$摩根大通(JPM.US)$首席执行长戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)说,美国经济正面临前所未有的风险,这让他为戏剧性的剧变做好了准备。
The head of the nation's biggest bank offered a largely upbeat view of the economy's health in his annual letter to shareholders Monday. Consumers and businesses are flush with cash, wages are rising and the economy is growing rapidly after its pandemic slowdown. While consumer confidence has declined, Mr. Dimon says the more important gauge is booming spending.
这位美国最大银行的掌门人周一在致股东的年度信函中对美国经济的健康状况大体上持乐观态度。消费者和企业现金充裕,工资上涨,经济在大流行放缓后迅速增长。戴蒙说,虽然消费者信心有所下降,但更重要的衡量标准是消费热潮。
Yet Mr. Dimon warned that the war in Ukraine could collide with rising inflation to slow the pandemic recovery and alter global alliances for decades to come.
然而,戴蒙警告说,乌克兰的战争可能会与不断上升的通胀发生冲突,从而减缓疫情的恢复,并改变未来几十年的全球联盟。
"They present completely different circumstances than what we've experienced in the past -- and their confluence may dramatically increase the risks ahead," Mr. Dimon wrote. "While it is possible, and hopeful, that all of these events will have peaceful resolutions, we should prepare for the potential negative outcomes."
戴蒙写道:“它们所呈现的情况与我们过去所经历的完全不同,它们的汇合可能会极大地增加未来的风险。”“尽管所有这些事件都有可能和平解决,而且充满希望,但我们应该为潜在的负面后果做好准备。”
Plenty has changed since Mr. Dimon's last shareholder letter. Last April, as the world emerged from the pandemic, he saw a chance for an economic "Goldilocks moment" -- fast, sustained growth alongside inflation and interest rates that drift slowly upward. Instead, growth was accompanied by inflation that well outpaced expectations.
自从戴蒙上一次致股东的信以来,很多事情都发生了变化。去年4月,随着世界从疫情中走出来,他看到了一个经济“金发时刻”的机会--快速、持续的增长,以及缓慢上升的通胀和利率。相反,伴随着增长的是远远超出预期的通胀。
"In hindsight, the medicine...was probably too much and lasted too long, " Mr. Dimon wrote in Monday's letter, referring to pandemic-era stimulus measures that kept consumers afloat and borrowing costs low.
戴蒙在周一的信中写道,事后看来,这种药可能太多了,持续的时间太长了。他指的是大流行时期的刺激措施,这些措施维持了消费者的生存,并降低了借贷成本。
Mr. Dimon warned that the Federal Reserve could move interest rates "significantly higher than the markets expect." The Fed began raising rates last month and signaled several more increases this year, including a potential half percentage point instead of the traditional quarter point at the next meeting.
戴蒙警告说,美联储可能会把利率“大大高于市场的预期”。美联储上个月开始加息,并暗示今年还会有几次加息,包括在下一次会议上可能加息0.5个百分点,而不是传统的25个百分点。
"This process will cause lots of consternation and very volatile markets, " Mr. Dimon added.
戴蒙补充说,“这一过程将导致大量恐慌和非常不稳定的市场。”
Russia's war against Ukraine and Western sanctions meant to stop it will "at a minimum" slow the global economy, Mr. Dimon said. Oil, commodity and agriculture markets are already reeling, he said. The prospect of additional sanctions, which he supports, could "dramatically, and unpredictably, increase their effect."
戴蒙说,俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争,以及西方旨在阻止这场战争的制裁,将“至少”拖慢全球经济。他说,石油、大宗商品和农业市场已经在摇摇欲坠。他支持的额外制裁的前景可能会“戏剧性地、不可预测地增加制裁的效果”。
"Along with the unpredictability of war itself and the uncertainty surrounding global commodity supply chains, this makes for a potentially explosive situation," Mr. Dimon said.
“再加上战争本身的不可预测性,以及围绕全球大宗商品供应链的不确定性,这构成了一种潜在的爆炸性局面,”戴蒙说。
JPMorgan, he disclosed, could lose about $1 billion over time on its business in Russia.
他透露,随着时间的推移,摩根大通在俄罗斯的业务可能会亏损约10亿美元。
Mr. Dimon renewed his call for a new Marshall Plan, referring to the U.S. initiative to help Western Europe rebuild after World War II. Energy investments, he said, are especially needed to wean the world off Russian oil and gas. He specifically called for the U.S. to issue permits for oil and gas projects and increased shipping of liquefied natural gas to Europe.
戴蒙再次呼吁制定新的马歇尔计划,他指的是美国帮助西欧在二战后重建的计划。他说,要让世界摆脱对俄罗斯石油和天然气的依赖,尤其需要能源投资。他特别呼吁美国为石油和天然气项目发放许可证,并增加对欧洲的液化天然气运输。
But Mr. Dimon said that ensuring current energy needs are met doesn't have to come at the expense of investments in green energy and broader efforts to reduce carbon emissions.
但戴蒙说,确保满足当前的能源需求不一定是以牺牲对绿色能源的投资和减少碳排放的更广泛努力为代价的。
"We need to secure proper energy supplies immediately for the next few years, which can be done while reducing CO2 emissions," Mr. Dimon wrote.
戴蒙写道,“我们需要在未来几年立即确保适当的能源供应,这可以在减少二氧化碳排放的同时实现。”
Write to David Benoit at David.Benoit@wsj.com
写信给David Benoit,电子邮件:David.Benoit@wsj.com
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在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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