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7 Stocks to Buy for the Coming Risk-On Rally

7 Stocks to Buy for the Coming Risk-On Rally

为即将到来的避险反弹买入7只股票
InvestorPlace ·  2022/03/08 07:20

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought the terms risk-on and risk-off into play as investors try to figure out the best stocks to buy in such a volatile market.

俄罗斯入侵乌克兰带来了条件 冒险避险 投资者正试图在如此动荡的市场中找出最适合买入的股票。

A war of such magnitude is a headwind for stocks. As such, they're currently considered risk-on assets. In times like these, investors look for risk-off assets such as gold, U.S. dollars, dollar-denominated bonds, and even Bitcoin (BTC-USD).

如此大规模的战争对股市来说是一个不利因素。因此,它们目前被视为风险资产。在这样的时代,投资者寻找避险资产,例如黄金、美元、美元计价的债券,甚至 比特币 (比特币兑美元)。

The reality is that, try as we may, there is no such thing as a risk-off or risk-on asset. There are only assets, good and bad, depending on what an investor is trying to accomplish.

现实情况是,尽我们所能,不存在避险或冒险资产之类的东西。只有资产,好坏都取决于投资者想要实现的目标。

For example, if you are risk-averse, in times like these, U.S. Treasury bills are an excellent example of an asset that is risk-off. However, if you're trying to grow your assets, T-bills are very much a risk-on play due to the ravages of inflation.

例如,如果你规避风险,在这样的时代,美国国库券就是避险资产的绝佳例子。但是,如果你想增加资产,由于通货膨胀的肆虐,国库券在很大程度上是一种冒险游戏。

InvestorPlace readers tend to be individuals looking to grow their assets. The challenge at the moment is figuring out when stocks are risk-on and risk-off.

投资者广场 读者往往是希望增加资产的人。目前的挑战是弄清楚股票何时处于冒险和避险状态。

I would argue that if your investment horizon is 10 years or longer, stocks are risk-off assets despite the current state of affairs. That said, the price you pay for a stock matters.

我认为,如果你的投资期限为10年或更长时间,那么尽管目前的状况如何,股票还是避险资产。也就是说,你为股票支付的价格很重要。

The Shiller PE Ratio is currently 35.4x, which except for December 1999, is higher than it's ever been. U.S. stocks are the third-most-expensive out of 43 global markets. Only Ireland and Denmark are more so.

希勒的市盈率目前为35.4倍,除1999年12月外,比以往任何时候都高。在全球43个市场中,美国股票是第三昂贵的股票。只有爱尔兰和丹麦更是如此。

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When the war comes to an end, however it ends, and the world gets back to normal, there will likely be a risk-on rally. Here are seven stocks to buy for when it happens:

当战争结束时,无论它如何结束,世界恢复正常,都可能会出现冒险反弹。以下是发生这种情况时可以买入的七只股票:

  • Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B)
  • Paramount Global (NASDAQ:PARA)
  • Stellantis (NYSE:STLA)
  • LVMH (OTCMKTS:LVMUY)
  • Equinor (NYSE:EQNR)
  • Fresenius SE (OTCMKTS:FSNUY)
  • CK Hutchison Holdings (OTCMKTS:CKHUY)
  • 伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司 (纽约证券交易所代码:BRK.B)
  • 派拉蒙全球 (纳斯达克股票代码:PARA)
  • 斯泰兰蒂斯 (纽约证券交易所代码:STLA)
  • LVMH (OTCMKTS: LVMUY)
  • Equinor (纽约证券交易所代码:EQNR)
  • 费森尤斯 SE (OTCMKTS: FSNUY)
  • CK 和记控股 (OTCMKTS: CKUY)

Risk-On Rally Stocks to Buy: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)

值得买入的风险反弹股票:伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司(BRK.B)

Source: Jonathan Weiss / Shutterstock.com
资料来源:乔纳森·韦斯/Shutterstock.com

I'm sure you're wondering why I would include a defensive stock such as Berkshire Hathaway in a list of stocks to buy for a risk-on rally. It's simple; Warren Buffett's holding company generates a ton of free cash flow (FCF). In addition, if the risk-on rally doesn't last, BRK.B remains a fortress against the unknown.

我敢肯定你想知道为什么我会将像伯克希尔·哈撒韦这样的防御性股票纳入风险反弹的股票清单中。很简单;沃伦·巴菲特的控股公司产生了大量的自由现金流(FCF)。此外,如果风险反弹没有持续下去,BRK.B仍然是抵御未知世界的堡垒。

The past year was one of Berkshire's best years in recent memory, up 29.6%, 90 basis points higher than the S&P 500 index. It was the best return since 2013. The stock is a good mix of offense — it received $785 million in dividends in 2021 from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) along with 34% capital appreciation — and defense — the float from its insurance business has grown from $19 milli0n in 1967 to $147 billion in 2021.

过去的一年是伯克希尔近年来表现最好的年份之一,上涨了29.6%,比标准普尔500指数高出90个基点。这是自2013年以来的最佳回报。该股是一个很好的进攻组合——它在2021年获得了7.85亿美元的股息 苹果 纳斯达克股票代码:AAPL)加上34%的资本增值——以及国防——其保险业务的流量已从1967年的1900万美元增长到2021年的1470亿美元。

Here's what Buffett had to say about its insurance business in the 2021 shareholder letter:

以下是巴菲特在2021年股东信中对其保险业务所说的话:

"I believe that it is likely – but far from assured – that Berkshire's float can be maintained without our incurring a long-term underwriting loss. I am certain, however, that there will be some years when we experience such losses, perhaps involving very large sums," Buffett stated.

“我认为,伯克希尔的浮动量很可能——但远未得到保证,而不会造成长期承保损失。但是,我敢肯定,有几年我们会遭受这样的损失,可能涉及巨额损失,” 巴菲特说。

"Berkshire is constructed to handle catastrophic events as no other insurer — and that priority will remain long after Charlie (Munger) and I are gone."

“伯克希尔是为应对灾难性事件而建造的,这是其他保险公司所无法比拟的——在我和查理(芒格)离开很久之后,这一优先事项仍将继续。”

I've always said that the actual value of Berkshire will only be determined once every last asset is auctioned off to the highest bidder over a lengthy — decades, not years — divestiture process.

我一直说,只有在漫长的(几十年,而不是几年)的剥离过程中,将最后一笔资产拍卖给出价最高的人,伯克希尔的实际价值才能确定。

Berkshire is a must-own in my opinion, while he's alive and long after he's gone.

在我看来,伯克希尔是必去之地,他还活着,已经离开很久了。

Paramount Global (PARA)

派拉蒙环球(PARA)

Source: Jer123 / Shutterstock.com
资料来源:Jer123 /Shutterstock.com

The company, formerly known as ViacomCBS, became Paramount Global in mid-February. The company's announcement of the name change was very corporate in its communication.

该公司,前身为 维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司, 2月中旬成为派拉蒙环球。该公司的更名公告在沟通中非常严格。

However, it's easy to see why it went with Paramount Global.

但是,不难理解它为什么选择派拉蒙环球。

First, it's trying to grow its Paramount+ streaming service, a business that's expected to deliver significant growth for shareholders.

首先,它正试图发展其派拉蒙+流媒体服务,该业务预计将为股东带来显著增长。

In Q4 2021, Paramount+ hit 32.8 million subscribers, putting it ahead of several of its competitors, including Discovery's (NASDAQ:DISCA) Discovery+ at 20 million. The company's streaming revenue in 2021 from subscriptions and advertising grew 64% year-over-year to $4.2 billion. It now accounts for 14.7% of its overall revenue, 460 basis points higher than 2020.

2021年第四季度,派拉蒙+的订阅人数达到3,280万,领先于其几个竞争对手,包括探索者(纳斯达克股票代码:DISCA)的Discovery+,达到2000万。该公司2021年来自订阅和广告的流媒体收入同比增长64%,达到42亿美元。它现在占其总收入的14.7%,比2020年增加了460个基点。

"We see a huge global opportunity in streaming, a much larger potential market than can be captured by linear TV and film alone," stated CEO Bob Bakish in its press release.

首席执行官鲍勃·巴基什在其新闻稿中表示:“我们看到了流媒体领域巨大的全球机遇,这个潜在市场比仅靠线性电视和电影所能捕捉到的要大得多。”

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Secondly, and equally important, it puts the company's dreadful past in the rearview mirror. The mere mention of Viacom and CBS brings forth memories of a long-dysfunctional marriage. The name Paramount reaches back to an iconic past while looking forward to the future. It was a no-brainer.

其次,同样重要的是,它将公司的可怕过去放在后视镜中。仅仅提及维亚康姆和哥伦比亚广播公司,就会让人回想起长期失调的婚姻。派拉蒙这个名字可以追溯到标志性的过去,同时展望未来。这不费吹灰之力。

As for PARA stock, it's rather cheap at the moment. It trades at 0.9x sales, and its enterprise value of $35.3 billion is just 5.4x earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), about half its five-year average.

至于PARA股票,目前相当便宜。其销售额为0.9倍,其353亿美元的企业价值仅为扣除利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA)的5.4倍,约为五年平均水平的一半。

Paramount Global is growth at a reasonable price.

派拉蒙环球是以合理的价格增长。

Risk-On Rally Stocks to Buy: Stellantis (STLA)

风险反弹股票值得买入:Stellantis(STLA)

Source: Antonello Marangi / Shutterstock.com
资料来源:安东内罗·马兰吉/Shutterstock.com

I was tempted to recommend Exor (OTCMKTS:EXXRF), the Agnelli family's holding company. It owns 14.4% of Stellantis along with investments in a bunch of businesses, including Christian Louboutin, known for its red sole women's shoes.

我很想推荐 Exor (OTCMKTS: EXXRF),阿涅利家族的控股公司。它拥有Stellantis14.4%的股份,并投资了许多企业,包括以红色鞋底女鞋闻名的克里斯蒂安·卢布汀。

Stellantis outlined its nine-year strategic plan, Dare Forward 2030, on 4. If you're a Jeep fan, as I am, you ought to be excited about what it had to say about the brand's future.

Stellantis概述了其九年战略计划, 勇往直前 2030,在 4.如果你像我一样是吉普车的粉丝,你应该对它对这个品牌的未来所说的话感到兴奋。

First, the company plans to double revenue to $335 billion by 2030 across all 14 of its brands. It also plans to maintain its North American margin of 16.3%, 610 and 790 basis points higher than General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Ford (NYSE:F), respectively, despite the higher cost to make electric vehicles (EVs).

首先,该公司计划到2030年将其所有14个品牌的收入翻一番,达到3350亿美元。它还计划将北美利润率维持在16.3%,分别高出610和790个基点 通用汽车 (纽约证券交易所代码:GM)和 福特 尽管制造电动汽车(EV)的成本较高,但分别是纽约证券交易所代码:F)。

To get the job done electrifying the company's EV fleet, it will spend $36 billion over nine years. CEO Carlos Tavares believes money's not the problem; it's executing at a high level.

为了完成公司电动汽车车队的电气化工作,该公司将在九年内花费360亿美元。首席执行官卡洛斯·塔瓦雷斯认为,金钱不是问题;它是在高水平上执行的。

Stellantis' goal is to sell 5 million EVs annually by 2030, with Europe all-electric and North America 50% of the way to electrification. Jeep plans a small SUV for the first half of 2023 with a Wrangler-like SUV and family SUV to follow in 2024.

Stellantis的目标是到2030年每年销售500万辆电动汽车,其中欧洲是纯电动汽车,北美的电气化占50%。吉普计划在2023年上半年推出一款小型SUV,并在2024年推出类似牧马人的SUV和家用SUV。

It might be the underdog in the eyes of many investors. I'm a contrarian. I see a strong road ahead for the company and its stock.

在许多投资者眼中,它可能是弱者。我是一个逆势主义者。我认为该公司及其股票前进的道路是强劲的。

LVMH (LVMUY)

LVMH (LVMUY)

Source: Postmodern Studio / Shutterstock.com
来源:后现代工作室/Shutterstock.com

Rumors surfaced in February that LVMH was in talks to buy Ralph Lauren (NYSE:RL). The iconic brand's $8.7 billion enterprise value would be an appetizer for a company as large as the luxury conglomerate — LVMH's enterprise value is 40x Ralph Lauren's — whose corporate name includes three of its major brands: Louis Vuitton, Moet & Chandon and Hennessy.

二月份有传言称LVMH正在谈判收购 拉尔夫·劳伦 (纽约证券交易所代码:RL)。对于像奢侈品集团这样庞大的公司来说,这个标志性品牌的87亿美元企业价值将是开胃菜——LVMH的企业价值是拉尔夫·劳伦的40倍——后者的公司名称包括其三个主要品牌:路易威登、Moet & Chandon和轩尼诗。

Axios first broke the story, suggesting that LVMH wants the Polo brand because it would give it a much larger U.S. footprint. In 2021, the U.S.accounted for 26% of its overall sales. Asia remains LVMH's largest market at 35%.

Axios 首先揭露了这个故事,暗示LVMH想要Polo品牌,因为这将使其在美国的足迹要大得多。2021年,美国占其总销售额的26%。亚洲仍然是LVMH最大的市场,为35%。

The Axios report makes some excellent points about why the deal has merit.

这个 Axios 报告对该协议为何有优点提出了一些很好的观点。

Ralph Lauren is 82 years old. He won't be around forever. Given the business is turning a corner, it would be an ideal time to sell off the company that he built from the ground up. In addition, LVMH knows how to turn brands into luxury powerhouses. Ralph Lauren could easily be transformed into a luxury brand with higher price points.

拉尔夫·劳伦今年 82 岁。他不会永远待在身边。鉴于业务正在转危为安,现在是出售他从头开始建立的公司的理想时机。此外,LVMH知道如何将品牌转变为奢侈品强国。拉尔夫·劳伦很容易转变为价格更高的奢侈品牌。

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Through the first nine months ended Dec. 25, Ralph Lauren had operating income of $761.6 million from $4.7 billion in sales. In the same period a year ago, it had an operating loss of $17.9 million from $3.11 billion in sales.

在截至12月25日的前九个月中,拉尔夫·劳伦的营业收入为7.616亿美元,销售额为47亿美元。去年同期,其营业亏损为1790万美元,销售额为31.1亿美元。

If the deal happens, Ralph Lauren should take the purchase price in LVMH stock. In the hands of the French firm, his family will be taken care of for generations to come.

如果这笔交易发生,拉尔夫·劳伦应该以LVMH股票的收购价为准。在这家法国公司的手中,他的家人将在子孙后代得到照顾。

Risk-On Rally Stocks to Buy: Equinor (EQNR)

风险反弹股票可供买入:Equinor(EQNR)

Norwegian energy giant Equinor is based in Stavanger, a town I once visited for a wedding of a good friend. Once a sleepy village, it came alive in the mid-to-late 1960s when the North Sea oil field got further developed.

挪威能源巨头Equinor总部设在斯塔万格,我曾经去那里参加过一个好朋友的婚礼。它曾经是一个昏昏欲睡的村庄,在1960年代中后期,当北海油田得到进一步开发时,它恢复了活力。

In May 2018, Statoil became Equinor to reflect the fact it was no longer just oil and gas. It's also wind and solar. It expects to grow its renewable energy capacity ten-fold by 2026. By 2030, it will have 12-16 megawatts of net production capacity from renewables.

2018年5月,挪威国家石油公司更名为Equinor,以反映它不再只是石油和天然气的事实。它也是风能和太阳能。它预计到2026年,其可再生能源产能将增长十倍。到2030年,它将拥有12-16兆瓦的可再生能源净生产能力。

In the meantime, its oil and gas business is expected to generate $45 billion in free cash flow between 2021 and 2026. However, that's based on a $60 barrel of oil. For every day oil trades above $100, that adds to the total. (Brent crude was hovering just below $127 as this article went to press.)

同时,其石油和天然气业务预计将在2021年至2026年之间产生450亿美元的自由现金流。但是,这是以每桶60美元的石油为基础的。每当石油交易价格超过100美元时,总交易量就会增加。(本文发稿时,布伦特原油价格徘徊在略低于127美元。)

In 2021, Equinor had adjusted after-tax net income of $10 billion from the production of 2.08 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) and 1,562-gigawatt-hours (GWh). At the moment, its oil breakeven is $35 a barrel.

2021年,Equinor调整后的税后净收入为100亿美元,每天生产208万桶石油当量(mboe/d)和1,562千兆瓦时(GWh)。目前,其石油盈亏平衡为每桶35美元。

In 2022, it plans to buy back $5 billion of its stock. Its quarterly dividend of 20 cents currently yields 2.4%. EQNR stock is up almost 26% YTD and 69% over the past year. Despite the big gains, a risk-on rally would likely push its stock into the $40s and an all-time high.

它计划在2022年回购50亿美元的股票。其20美分的季度股息目前收益率为2.4%。EQNR的股票年初至今上涨了近26%,在过去的一年中上涨了69%。尽管涨幅巨大,但冒险反弹可能会将其股票推高至40美元并创下历史新高。

The government of Norway owns 67% of Equinor stock. The country remains in charge of its own energy needs. That's a good thing.

挪威政府拥有Equinor67%的股份。该国仍然负责自己的能源需求。这是一件好事。

Fresenius SE (FSNUY)

费森尤斯 SE (FSNUY)

Source: Shutterstock
资料来源:Shutterstock

Fresenius is a German-based healthcare holding company.

费森尤斯是一家总部位于德国的医疗控股公司。

It owns or has an interest in four different businesses: 32% of Fresenius Medical Care (NYSE:FMS), 100% of Fresenius Kabi manufactures hospital supplies and medical devices, 100% of Fresenius Helios, Europe's largest private operator of hospitals, and 77% of Fresenius Vamed, which manages healthcare projects and provides services for hospitals and other healthcare facilities in 95 countries.

它拥有四种不同的业务或拥有权益:32% 费森尤斯医疗 (纽约证券交易所代码:FMS),100% 费森尤斯·卡比 制造医院用品和医疗器械,100% 费森尤斯赫利俄斯,欧洲最大的私人医院运营商,77% Fresenius Vamed,它管理医疗保健项目,为95个国家的医院和其他医疗机构提供服务。

For all of 2021, Fresenius had 37.5 billion Euros ($41.0 billion) in revenue, 5% higher YOY excluding currency, and 1.87 billion Euros ($2.0 billion) in net income, also 5% higher than 2020.

2021年全年,费森尤斯的收入为375亿欧元(合410亿美元),不计货币的同比增长5%,净收入为18.7亿欧元(合20亿美元),也比2020年增长5%。

Free cash flow, while down in 2021, was still 3.06 billion Euros ($3.35 billion), or 8.2% of its total revenue. Based on a 15.7 billion ($17.2 billion) market cap, it has an FCF yield of 19.5%. I consider anything over 8% to be value territory.

自由现金流虽然在2021年有所下降,但仍为30.6亿欧元(合33.5亿美元),占其总收入的8.2%。根据157亿美元(合172亿美元)的市值,其FCF收益率为19.5%。我认为任何超过8%的东西都是价值区域。

The company plans to get its net debt to EBITDA ratio down to as low as 3.0x in 2022. It expects 5% revenue growth and low-single-digit growth of net income. Down 24% in 2022, Fresenius is definitely the value play of the seven.

该公司计划在2022年将其净负债与息税折旧摊销前利润的比率降至3.0倍。它预计收入将增长5%,净收入将实现较低的个位数增长。费森尤斯在2022年下降了24%,绝对是这七家公司的价值游戏。

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Fresenius has increased its dividend for 29 consecutive years. It pays out a conservative 20-25% of earnings.

费森尤斯已连续29年增加股息。它支付的收益占保守的20-25%。

Approximately 27% of the company is owned by the Else Kröner Fresenius Stiftung, a foundation established by Else Kröner, the German entrepreneur who built a massive healthcare business from a small Frankfurt pharmaceutical company.

该公司约有27%的股份归Else Kröner Fresenius Stiftung所有,该基金会由德国企业家埃尔斯·克罗纳创立,他从一家小型法兰克福制药公司创办了一家大型医疗保健企业。

Risk-On Rally Stocks to Buy: CK Hutchison Holdings (CKHUY)

风险反弹股票可供买入:CK Hutchison Holdings(CKHUY)

Source: Sorbis / Shutterstock.com
资料来源:Sorbis /Shutterstock.com

A close second to Fresenius as a value play is the Hong-Kong investment company founded and controlled by billionaire Li Ka-Shing. Mr. Li is the 42nd-wealthiest person on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index with a net worth of $29.2 billion. He is said to be Hong Kong's wealthiest person.

这家由亿万富翁李嘉诚创立和控制的香港投资公司在价值游戏中紧随其后,仅次于费森尤斯。李先生是世界上第 42 位最富有的人 彭博亿万富翁指数 净资产为292亿美元。据说他是香港最富有的人。

Li founded the company in 1950. He led the conglomerate until stepping down in 2018. Li's son Victor took over as chairman from his dad. He remains the chief executive of the holding company.

李在1950年创立了这家公司。在2018年辞职之前,他一直领导该集团。李的儿子维克托从父亲手中接任董事长。他仍然是控股公司的首席执行官。

The company has five major businesses: Ports and Related Services (12% of EBITDA), Retail (17%), Infrastructure (22%), Telecom (47%), and Finance & Investments (2%). In the six months ended June 30, 2021, the company had revenues of 212.39 billion Hong Kong Dollars ($27.18 billion) and EBITDA of 68.17 billion Hong Kong Dollars ($8.72 billion), good for a 32% EBITDA margin.

该公司拥有五大业务:港口及相关服务(占息税折旧摊销前利润的12%)、零售(17%)、基础设施(22%)、电信(47%)以及金融与投资(2%)。在截至2021年6月30日的六个月中,该公司的收入为2123.9亿港元(合271.8亿美元),息税折旧摊销前利润为681.7亿港元(合87.2亿美元),息税折旧摊销前利润率为32%。

At first look, CK Hutchison looks like a terrible investment. It has an annualized total return of -6.77%.

乍一看,CK Hutchison看起来像是一项糟糕的投资。它的年化总回报率为-6.77%。

It might not be in Berkshire Hathaway's league, but it's close. However, in recent years, compared to the Hang Seng Index — it is down 24.7% over the past year compared to -6.34% for CK Hutchison — it's doing fine.

它可能不在伯克希尔·哈撒韦的联赛中,但已经接近了。但是,近年来,与 恒生指数 —在过去的一年中下降了24.7%,而CK Hutchison的跌幅为-6.34%—表现良好。

It might not be in Berkshire's league, but its assets are worth far more than investors are currently valuing them.

它可能不属于伯克希尔的行列,但其资产价值远远超过投资者目前对它们的估值。

On the date of publication, Will Ashworth did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

在出版之日,威尔·阿什沃思 没有(直接或间接)持有本文所述证券的任何头寸。 本文中表达的观点是作者的观点,但须遵守 Investorplace.com

The post 7 Stocks to Buy for the Coming Risk-On Rally appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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