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Inflation 2022 | Do you pay more for your auto-insurance?

Inflation 2022 | Do you pay more for your auto-insurance?

通胀2022年|你会为你的汽车保险支付更高的费用吗?
Dow Jones Newswires ·  2022/02/13 22:39
By Thomas Gryta 
托马斯·格里塔(Thomas Gryta)著

Inflation is seeping through American business, hitting companies in unexpected ways beyond higher prices for materials, shipping or wages.

通货膨胀正在渗透到美国企业,以超出材料、运输或工资价格上涨的意想不到的方式打击公司。

It is adding to legal costs for the maker of Marlboro cigarettes, driving up the bill for auto repairs at $Allstate(ALL.US)$, prompting people to pay less of their credit-card balances and stoking concerns of shrinking ad spending at social-media companies.

这增加了万宝路香烟制造商的法律成本,推高了汽车维修费用$好事达(ALL.US)$这促使人们减少支付信用卡余额,并引发了人们对社交媒体公司广告支出缩减的担忧。

While companies have been sounding the alarm on inflation for the past year, economists were mostly playing down the rising prices as a temporary disruption caused by the reopening of the economy. Instead, inflation has persisted and recently hit its highest rate in four decades, pushing the Federal Reserve to accelerate its plan to raise interest rates.

尽管企业在过去一年里一直在敲响通胀警钟,但经济学家们大多将不断上涨的价格淡化为经济重新开放造成的暂时干扰。相反,通胀持续存在,最近达到了40年来的最高水平,推动美联储(Federal Reserve)加快了加息计划。

To preserve profits, companies are passing along more price increases to customers as inflation shows no signs of slowing down.

为了保住利润,随着通胀没有显示出放缓的迹象,企业正在将更多的涨价转嫁给客户。

"It kind of cascades from initially a small set of goods to a much larger set of goods," said Chester Spatt, who was chief economist at the Securities and Exchange Commission from 2004 to 2007 and is now a professor of finance at Carnegie Mellon University.

切斯特·斯帕特(Chester Spatt)在2004年至2007年担任美国证券交易委员会(Securities And Exchange Commission)首席经济学家,现在是卡内基梅隆大学(Carnegie Mellon University)金融学教授。

Rising prices aren't the main problem with inflation, he said; it is that prices are rising by different amounts at different times. As some prices rise more than others, companies and consumers might change their spending plans, something that can affect the economy as a whole.

他说,物价上涨不是通胀的主要问题,而是物价在不同时期上涨的幅度不同。由于一些价格的涨幅超过其他价格,企业和消费者可能会改变他们的支出计划,这可能会影响整体经济。

"If all prices moved by the same amount that would be cause for some concern, but it would be neutral," Mr. Spatt said. "Inflation is also an indication that there is a lot of relative variability in pricing."

斯帕特说,“如果所有价格的变动幅度都一样,那将会引起一些担忧,但这将是中性的。”“通胀也表明,定价存在很大的相对变异性。”

Car and home insurer Allstate cited inflation, specifically the surge in used-car prices, for the increased costs of auto-accident claims. Used-car values started climbing in late 2020 and accelerated in 2021 to rise 68% since the beginning of 2019, Allstate said when it reported earnings this month. The higher prices are reflected in insurer payments for totaled vehicles.

汽车和家庭保险公司好事达(Allstate)将汽车事故索赔成本增加的原因归因于通胀,特别是二手车价格飙升。好事达本月公布财报时表示,二手车价值从2020年末开始攀升,2021年加速攀升,自2019年初以来上涨了68%。较高的价格反映在保险公司对总计车辆的支付上。

In the first half of 2021, Allstate's profit from auto-insurance underwriting was more than $1.7 billion because a drop in accident frequency offset the rising severity of claims. The number of accidents rose toward pre-pandemic levels in the second half of the year, and the cost of claims continued to rise, resulting in a more than $450 million underwriting loss over the period.

2021年上半年,好事达来自汽车保险承保的利润超过17亿美元,因为事故频率的下降抵消了日益严重的索赔。今年下半年,事故数量上升到大流行前的水平,索赔成本持续上升,导致这一时期的承保损失超过4.5亿美元。

Glenn Shapiro, president of Allstate's property-liability business, said the supply-chain problems and chip shortages that are driving up prices aren't expected to clear up this year. Meanwhile, the growth in used-car prices should calm down in future quarters, he said. Used-car prices rose 40.5% in January from a year earlier, according to data released Thursday by the Labor Department.

好事达房地产责任业务总裁夏皮罗(Glenn Shapiro)说,正在推高价格的供应链问题和芯片短缺预计今年不会好转。与此同时,他表示,二手车价格的增长在未来几个季度应该会平息下来。美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示,1月份二手车价格同比上涨40.5%。

"There's likely some sort of structural maximum that used-car prices go to," Mr. Shapiro said on the company's earnings call. "They probably won't end up exceeding new cars' prices."

夏皮罗在公司财报电话会议上说,“二手车价格可能会达到某种结构性上限。”“它们最终可能不会超过新车的价格。”

Allstate started raising auto rates in the second half of 2021. It is a reversal from earlier in the pandemic when it was sending refunds to customers as Americans in 2020 were hunkered down in homes.

好事达在2021年下半年开始提高汽车费率。这与疫情早些时候的情况发生了逆转,当时该公司向客户退款,因为2020年的美国人都呆在家里。

A Wall Street Journal analysis of 280 companies that had reported quarterly earnings as of Feb. 4 showed that 79% had some discussion of inflation in their conference calls.

“华尔街日报”(Wall Street Journal)对280家截至2月4日公布季度收益的公司进行的分析显示,79%的公司在电话会议中对通胀进行了一些讨论。

For some companies, the increased costs are contractual. Marlboro cigarette maker Altria Group Inc. expects that inflation will increase the amount it pays from a 1998 landmark tobacco settlement, it said last month. The settlement hit cigarette makers with legal liabilities that led to $200 billion in costs over the years.

对于一些公司来说,增加的成本是合同规定的。万宝路卷烟制造商奥驰亚集团(Altria Group Inc.)上个月表示,预计通货膨胀将增加其从1998年里程碑式的烟草和解协议中支付的金额。和解协议给卷烟制造商带来了法律责任,多年来导致了2000亿美元的成本。

Annual payments under the settlement are determined using several components, including an inflation adjustment, which is the higher of either 3% a year or the government's inflation data published in January, according to Altria's regulatory filings. The Labor Department reported Thursday that the consumer-price index rose to a 7.5% annual rate in January.

根据奥驰亚提交给监管机构的文件,和解协议下的年度付款是使用几个组成部分来确定的,包括通胀调整,通胀调整是每年3%或政府1月份公布的通胀数据中的较高者。美国劳工部(Labor Department)周四公布,1月份消费者价格指数(CPI)按年率计算升至7.5%。

Among social-media companies, Twitter Inc. and Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. played down impact from inflation on their operations but also warned that rising costs affecting other businesses -- such as freight, materials and wages -- could curb advertiser spending.

在社交媒体公司中,推特(Twitter Inc.)和Facebook母公司Meta Platforms Inc.淡化了通胀对其运营的影响,但也警告说,影响运费、材料和工资等其他业务的成本上升可能会抑制广告商的支出。

"We're hearing from advertisers that macroeconomic challenges like cost inflation and supply-chain disruptions are impacting advertiser budgets, " said Meta Chief Financial Officer David Wehner on a conference call this month.

Meta首席财务官David Wehner在本月的一次电话会议上表示:“我们从广告商那里听到,成本上涨和供应链中断等宏观经济挑战正在影响广告商的预算。”

Twitter's CFO Ned Segal said inflation could affect the company in a few different ways, including higher wages and brands shifting what goods and services they choose to advertise. "We're not yet seeing real impact from inflation in how our advertising and content partners show up on Twitter," Mr. Segal said.

推特首席财务官内德·西格尔表示,通货膨胀可能会以几种不同的方式影响公司,包括更高的工资和品牌改变他们选择做广告的商品和服务。西格尔说,“我们还没有看到通胀对我们的广告和内容合作伙伴在Twitter上出现的方式产生真正的影响。”

The steep rises in prices paid by consumers for items such as food, gas and furniture might develop into cautious spending, some financial-services firms said.

一些金融服务公司说,消费者为食品、汽油和家具等商品支付的价格大幅上涨,可能会演变为谨慎支出。

Credit-card issuer Synchrony Financial said the percentage of customers making payments covering their entire balances or more has dropped slightly, with a growing share making minimum payments or lower.

信用卡发行商Synchrony Financial说,支付全部或更多余额的客户比例略有下降,支付最低还款额或更低的比例不断上升。

The company said spending rose in the second half of 2021 and payment rates, or the amount people pay against their balance, began to fall from historically elevated levels. The company also pointed to the expiration of government aid to consumers.

该公司表示,2021年下半年支出上升,支付率,即人们支付的余额开始从历史高位回落。该公司还指出,政府对消费者的援助即将到期。

"Elevated consumer spending, lower consumer savings, inflationary pressures and return to full financial obligations has begun to impact the accumulated savings levels by consumers, which we believe will lead to a moderation in payment rate," said Synchrony CFO Brian Wenzel on a January conference call.

Synchrony首席财务官布莱恩·温泽尔(Brian Wenzel)在1月份的一次电话会议上表示:“消费者支出增加、消费者储蓄减少、通胀压力以及全额财政义务的回归,已经开始影响消费者累积的储蓄水平,我们认为这将导致支付率的放缓,”Synchrony CFO布莱恩·温泽尔(Brian Wenzel)在1月份的电话会议上表示。

Payments company PayPal Holdings Inc. said the persistence of inflation's effects on personal consumption, along with labor shortages, supply-chain issues and weaker consumer sentiment, have led it to adopt a more-cautious outlook.

支付公司贝宝控股公司(PayPal Holdings Inc.)说,通胀对个人消费的持续影响,加上劳动力短缺、供应链问题和消费者信心减弱,导致该公司采取了更为谨慎的前景。

"Our medium-term targets simply did not contemplate inflation at a 40-year high and supply-chain issues not seen in my lifetime," CFO John Rainey said on a conference call this month.

首席财务官约翰·雷尼(John Rainey)在本月的一次电话会议上表示:“我们的中期目标完全没有考虑到40年来的最高通胀率,以及我有生以来从未见过的供应链问题。”

--Salvador Rodriguez contributed to this article.

萨尔瓦多·罗德里格斯对本文也有贡献。

Write to Thomas Gryta at thomas.gryta@wsj.com

写信给Thomas Gryta,电子邮件:thomas.gryta@wsj.com

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