CICC: PBOC Cuts LPRs as Expected; CN Banks Likely to See Ray of Hope
CICC: PBOC Cuts LPRs as Expected; CN Banks Likely to See Ray of Hope
People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced to cut the 1-year and 5-year or above LRPs by 10 bps and 5 bps, to 3.7% and 4.6%, respectively, reported CICC. The LPR cuts, primarily aimed at reflecting the reduction of MLF interest rate on 17 January, were basically in line with the broker's expectations.
CICC expressed that $CM BANK(03968.HK)$, $CKH HOLDINGS(00001.HK)$ and BANK OF NINGBO (002142.SZ) appeared to be less affected compared to their peers due to their asset and liability structure. Given the banks' proactive efforts on adjusting their asset and liability structures to handle the NIM pressure, CICC kept the forecast 2-5-bp NIM contraction for 2022 unchanged.
Compared to the NIM pressure, the major factor that influences the profits of the banks at the current stage is considered to be the credit costs, CICC added. With the newly rolled out policies aimed at stabilizing growth, the assumptions on the banks' asset quality will likely see certain improvement, the broker added.
CICC continued to forecast a bottoming-out for the Chinese banks throughout this year and restated its top picks as CM BANK, PAB and $Postal Savings Bank of China(01658.HK)$.
據中金公司報道，中國人民銀行中國銀行宣佈將一年期和五年期以上的限額利率分別下調10個基點和5個基點，至3.7%和4.6%。下調LPR主要是為了反映1月17日MLF利率的下調，基本符合經紀的預期。
中金公司表示，$CM銀行(03968.HK)$, $長和(00001.HK)$而寧波銀行(002142.SZ)由於其資產和負債結構，與同行相比受到的影響似乎較小。鑑於銀行積極調整資產和負債結構以應對NIM壓力，中金公司維持2022年NIM收縮2-5個BP的預測不變。
中金公司補充説，與NIM壓力相比，現階段影響銀行利潤的主要因素被認為是信貸成本。這位經紀商補充説，隨着新推出的旨在穩定增長的政策，對銀行資產質量的假設可能會出現一定程度的改善。
中金公司繼續預測中資銀行今年將觸底反彈，並重申其首選的CM銀行、PAB和$郵儲銀行(01658.HK)$.