CICC: PBOC Cuts LPRs as Expected; CN Banks Likely to See Ray of Hope
CICC: PBOC Cuts LPRs as Expected; CN Banks Likely to See Ray of Hope
People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced to cut the 1-year and 5-year or above LRPs by 10 bps and 5 bps, to 3.7% and 4.6%, respectively, reported CICC. The LPR cuts, primarily aimed at reflecting the reduction of MLF interest rate on 17 January, were basically in line with the broker's expectations.
CICC expressed that $CM BANK(03968.HK)$, $CKH HOLDINGS(00001.HK)$ and BANK OF NINGBO (002142.SZ) appeared to be less affected compared to their peers due to their asset and liability structure. Given the banks' proactive efforts on adjusting their asset and liability structures to handle the NIM pressure, CICC kept the forecast 2-5-bp NIM contraction for 2022 unchanged.
Compared to the NIM pressure, the major factor that influences the profits of the banks at the current stage is considered to be the credit costs, CICC added. With the newly rolled out policies aimed at stabilizing growth, the assumptions on the banks' asset quality will likely see certain improvement, the broker added.
CICC continued to forecast a bottoming-out for the Chinese banks throughout this year and restated its top picks as CM BANK, PAB and $Postal Savings Bank of China(01658.HK)$.
据中金公司报道，中国人民银行中国银行宣布将一年期和五年期以上的限额利率分别下调10个基点和5个基点，至3.7%和4.6%。下调LPR主要是为了反映1月17日MLF利率的下调，基本符合经纪的预期。
中金公司表示，$CM银行(03968.HK)$, $长和(00001.HK)$而宁波银行(002142.SZ)由于其资产和负债结构，与同行相比受到的影响似乎较小。鉴于银行积极调整资产和负债结构以应对NIM压力，中金公司维持2022年NIM收缩2-5个BP的预测不变。
中金公司补充说，与NIM压力相比，现阶段影响银行利润的主要因素被认为是信贷成本。这位经纪商补充说，随着新推出的旨在稳定增长的政策，对银行资产质量的假设可能会出现一定程度的改善。
中金公司继续预测中资银行今年将触底反弹，并重申其首选的CM银行、PAB和$邮储银行(01658.HK)$.