share_log

Tesla is near a record high. Wall Street says the stock is worth 100 times earnings

Tesla is near a record high. Wall Street says the stock is worth 100 times earnings

特斯拉接近纪录高位。华尔街称该股市盈率为100倍
Dow Jones Newswires ·  2022/01/04 09:52  · 市场

Al Root

Al根

$Tesla(TSLA.US)$ stock is poised to open above $1,200 a share, putting it close to its all-time high of $1,243.49. As the stock rises -- it soared by double digits on Monday -- expect more debate about how to value shares of the EV leader.

$特斯拉(TSLA.US)$该股开盘有望突破每股1,200美元,接近1,243.49美元的历史高位。随着股价上涨(周一飙升了两位数),预计会有更多关于如何对这家电动汽车领军企业的股票进行估值的辩论。

Wall Street, for its part, appears to believe the stock is worth roughly 100 times Tesla's per-share earnings. That is about 10 times more valuable than stocks of traditional auto makers, but it seems about right, based on one valuation methodology.

华尔街似乎认为,特斯拉股票的价值大约是其每股收益的100倍。这大约是传统汽车制造商股票价值的10倍,但根据一种估值方法,这似乎是正确的。

In premarket trading on Tuesday, Tesla stock was up 0.6% at $1,206.95, while futures on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were both up about 0.3%. The shares gained 13.5% on Monday after the company reported that it delivered more than 308,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, roughly 15% more than the roughly 267,000 Wall Street expected.

在周二的盘前交易中,特斯拉股价上涨0.6%,至1206.95美元,而标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数期货均上涨约0.3%。该公司股价周一上涨13.5%,此前该公司公布,第四季度交付了超过30.8万辆汽车,比华尔街预期的约26.7万辆高出约15%。

At about $1,207 a share, and with about 1 billion shares outstanding, Tesla is valued at about $1.2 trillion -- an eye-popping valuation, especially for a car maker.

特斯拉的股价约为每股1,207美元,流通股约为10亿股,估值约为1.2万亿美元,这一估值令人瞠目结舌,尤其是对于一家汽车制造商来说。

The price is about 130 times the relatively outdated Wall Street consensus forecast of about $9 a share in 2022 earnings. $Ford Motor(F.US)$, by comparison, is valued at about 11 times, while $General Motors(GM.US)$ is at about nine times.

这一价格是相对过时的华尔街普遍预测的约130倍,即2022年收益约为每股9美元。$福特汽车(F.US)$相比之下,它的估值约为11倍,而$通用汽车(GM.US)$大约是九倍。

Behind the gap is the fact that traditional car companies like Ford and GM haven't grown the way Tesla is expanding now in many generations. Tesla's delivery volumes rose about 87% in 2021.

在这种差距的背后,是福特和通用汽车等传统汽车公司在过去几代人中没有像特斯拉那样发展壮大。特斯拉2021年的交付量增长了约87%。

More deliveries at Tesla means more earnings. And as Wall Street has responded to Tesla's latest news on deliveries, disclosed Sunday, the consensus call on 2022 earnings has gone up by about 20 cents a share over the past couple of days. The average forecast for Tesla's stock price, meanwhile, has increased by about $20, to roughly $863 a share.

特斯拉交付的更多意味着更多的收益。随着华尔街对特斯拉最新的交货消息做出回应,华尔街对2022年收益的普遍预期在过去几天里上涨了约每股20美分。与此同时,对特斯拉股价的平均预期增加了约20美元,达到每股863美元左右。

An increase of $20 in the target for the stock price for 20 additional cents in per-share earnings is a multiple of 100 times -- a rule of thumb investors can use in tackling the novel challenge of valuing a rapidly growing car company.

将目标股价提高20美元,每股收益增加20美分,是100倍的倍数--这条经验法则可以用来应对对一家快速增长的汽车公司进行估值的新挑战。

Simply plug in the consensus call for 2022 earnings estimates and multiply by 100. By that logic, to justify the $1,200 price Tesla would need to earn $12 a share in 2022. The current consensus estimate is $9, but the figure is based on part on forecasts that are out of date: Not every analyst raises estimates at the same rate, or in response to every tidbit of news.

只需输入2022年收益预期的共识,然后乘以100即可。按照这种逻辑,要证明1200美元的价格是合理的,特斯拉在2022年需要每股盈利12美元。目前的普遍预期是9美元,但这个数字在一定程度上是基于过时的预测:并不是每个分析师都以同样的速度上调预期,或者是对每条小道消息做出回应。

Early this past year, analysts expected Tesla to earn about $4 a share in 2021, but the actual figure is likely to come in at more than $6. Earnings estimates rise when things are getting better, as they have been for Tesla lately.

去年年初,分析人士预计特斯拉2021年的每股收益约为4美元,但实际数字可能会超过6美元。情况好转时,特斯拉的收益预期会上升,就像特斯拉最近的情况一样。

The 2021 experience makes a per-share profit of $12 look possible. If Tesla hits that number, it would represent growth in earnings of roughly 100%. At a stock price of $1,200, the price/earnings ratio would be 100 times. Divide that by the growth rate, at 100%, and you get a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of about 1.

2021年的经历使每股12美元的利润看起来是可能的。如果特斯拉达到这一数字,将意味着收益增长约100%。以1200美元的股价计算,市盈率为100倍。将这一数字除以增长率(100%),你会得到大约1倍的市盈率。

There is no right PEG ratio: What figure makes sense depends on the company, the industry, and the growth rate. But a PEG of 1 isn't all that excessive. The PEG ratio of the Russell 1000 Growth Index is roughly 2 to 3 times.

没有合适的PEG比率:什么数字有意义取决于公司、行业和增长率。但是PEG为1并不是那么过分。罗素1000增长指数的PEG比率约为2至3倍。

Whatever the multiple Tesla trades for, investors can be sure bulls and bears will debate it. Investors can also be sure that the stock will go higher if the company manages to keep beating delivery estimates by double-digit percentages, as it did in the fourth quarter.

无论多辆特斯拉的价格是多少,投资者都可以肯定,看涨和看跌的人都会就此展开辩论。投资者也可以肯定,如果该公司成功地以两位数的百分比超过交付预期,就像第四季度那样,股价将会走高。

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

写信给Al Root,地址是allen.root@dowjones.com

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
    抢沙发