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7 beaten-down growth stocks to buy for 2022

7 beaten-down growth stocks to buy for 2022

2022年将买入7只遭受重创的成长股
InvestorPlace ·  2021/12/25 03:02  · 观点

2020 was an explosive year for growth stocks, as many saw several years' worth of growth pulled forward into our new pandemic operating environment. It resulted in many stocks doubling, tripling, quadrupling, or even more. 

2020年对成长型股票来说是爆炸性的一年,因为许多人看到了几个几年的时间价值增长推动了我们新的大流行运营环境。它导致许多股票翻了一番、三倍、四倍,甚至更多。

Coming into 2021, many of these names were hitting new highs and investors were feeling empowered. This brazen attitude didn't do too well once things started to break down, though. 

进入2021年,其中许多公司都创下了新高,投资者感到自己有了力量。然而,一旦事情开始崩溃,这种厚颜无耻的态度就不太好了。

Many growth stocks quickly fell into a bear market, which lasted until early May. We were lucky to have caught the bottom, as many of these stocks enjoyed a strong rebound. 

许多成长股很快陷入熊市,熊市一直持续到5月初。我们很幸运地抓住了底部,因为其中许多股票都出现了强劲的反弹。

However, call it a second bear market or simply a big dead-cat bounce within the first one, but growth stocks are back in serious pain. Let's look at the high-quality ones worth buying. I love accumulating high-quality businesses on deep declines. Below are seven growth stocks to buy in 2022: 

然而,你可以称之为第二次熊市,或者仅仅是第一次熊市中的一次大的死猫反弹,但成长型股票正处于严重的痛苦之中。让我们来看看值得购买的高品质产品。我喜欢在股价大幅下滑的情况下积累高质量的业务。以下是2022年值得买入的七只成长股:

Roku (ROKU)

罗库(Roku)

While I would be the first to point out the secular growth opportunity in streaming video, $Roku Inc(ROKU.US)$ bears will point out the potential competition from $Alphabet-A(GOOGL.US)$$Alphabet-C(GOOG.US)$ and $Amazon(AMZN.US)$

虽然我会是第一个指出流媒体视频长期增长机会的人,$Roku Inc.(ROKU.US)$看空者会指出来自$Alphabet-A(谷歌)$$Alphabet-C(谷歌)$$亚马逊(AMZN.US)$.

However, that threat has always loomed for a while now. Amazon Fire TV, Google Chromecast, and the $Apple(AAPL.US)$ TV have been in play for years. And you know what? The biggest mistake by Alphabet or another company was not acquiring Roku, because it dominates the space. 

然而,这种威胁现在总是隐约可见一段时间。亚马逊Fire TV、谷歌Chromecast和$苹果(AAPL.US)$电视已经流行多年了。你知道吗?Alphabet或其他公司最大的错误是没有收购Roku,因为它在这个领域占据主导地位。

That's evident in its top-line growth, where it boasts revenue expectations of 57% growth this year. Beyond that, estimates call for 36% growth next year and 31.5% growth in 2023. 

这一点从其营收增长中可见一斑,预计今年营收将增长57%。除此之外,预计明年的增长率为36%,2023年的增长率为31.5%。

Further, Roku generated 18 billion hours of streaming last quarter, up 21% year over year. Active accounts climbed too, up 23% year over year to 56.4 million customers. 

此外,Roku上季度产生了180亿小时的流媒体,同比增长21%。活跃账户数量也出现了增长,同比增长23%,达到5640万客户。

While many would have expected "peak streaming" to have occurred in Q2 and Q3 of 2020 (when we were at peak Covid lockdowns), that hasn't been the case. 

虽然很多人会预计2020年第二季度和第三季度(当时我们处于Covid封锁的高峰期)会出现“峰值流媒体”,但事实并非如此。

As the world continues to shift to streaming video, Roku should continue to drive its platform hours, active users and platform revenue. Still down more than 50% from the highs and Roku is a reasonable stock to begin accumulating. 

随着世界继续转向流媒体视频,Roku应该会继续推动其平台时长、活跃用户和平台收入。仍较高点下跌超过50%,Roku是一只合理的股票,可以开始积累。

 Upstart (UPST)

Upstart(UPST)

Like Roku, $Upstart(UPST.US)$ is down massively with the stock roughly 60% below its all-time high from October. Even after the company delivered a top-and bottom-line earnings beat and upside guidance in November, the stock was hammered, falling 18% the day after it reported. 

像Roku一样,$upstart(UPST.US)$股价大幅下跌,较去年10月以来的历史高点低了约60%。尽管该公司在11月份发布了营收和盈利超出预期的上行指引,但该股仍遭受重创,在公布财报后第二天下跌了18%。

What else could the company have done?

这家公司还能做些什么呢?

When we really look at Upstart stock, we see a high-quality company that's simply been swallowed up in the high-growth selloff. 

当我们真正观察upstart的股票时,我们看到的是一家被高增长抛售吞没的高质量公司。

Over the past year, the company has seen consensus expectations for revenue and earnings explode higher for 2021 and 2022. What happens to the stock price is out of management's control, but eventually this type of growth is rewarded. 

在过去的一年里,该公司对2021年和2022年的收入和收益的普遍预期大幅上升。股价的变化是管理层无法控制的,但这种增长最终会得到回报。

It helps that Upstart is profitable and cash flow positive too, while revenue estimates call for growth of 250% this year, 45% next year and 26% in 2023. For all we know though, the out-years are still too conservative. 

Upstart的盈利和现金流也是正的,这一点是有帮助的,而收入预测预计今年将增长250%,明年将增长45%,2023年将增长26%。但就我们所知,外星人是仍然太保守了。

In any regard, this stock could very well see a bounce in 2022, as investors start to pick over the scraps of the growth-stock graveyard. 

无论如何,随着投资者开始挑选成长型股票的残渣,该股很可能在2022年出现反弹。

Twilio (TWLO)

Twilio(TWLO)

I can't believe the action we've seen in Twilio. Well, I take that back — I can believe the action we've seen because the market is selling almost anything related to growth. For the most part, it doesn't matter if the quarter was good, great, bad or downright ugly. 

我不敢相信我们在Twilio看到的行动。好吧,我收回那句话-我相信我们所看到的行动,因为市场正在抛售几乎所有与增长相关的产品。在很大程度上,这个季度是好的、好的、坏的还是彻头彻尾的丑陋并不重要。

However, my temporary disbelief to $Twilio(TWLO.US)$'s current action is simple: Investors are being controlled by a simple pattern!

然而,我暂时不相信$Twilio(TWLO.US)$中国目前的行动很简单:投资者正被一种简单的模式控制!

The company has a tendency to report blowout results, crushing analysts' expectations. Its business is robust, with strong top-line growth and impressive dollar-based net retention (DBNR) — essentially how much growth it generates from current customers. 

该公司有公布井喷式业绩的倾向,超出了分析师的预期。它的业务很强劲,营收增长强劲,以美元计算的净留存(DBNR)令人印象深刻-本质上是它从现有客户那里产生的增长。

In other words, Twilio has a very "sticky" business and not one that customers can easily drop or switch for a competitor. That's important. As communications between businesses and customers increase, so too does Twilio's business. As it adds other mediums — like email — it continues to build a larger moat. 

换句话说,Twilio的业务非常“粘性”,客户不能轻易放弃或换成竞争对手。这很重要。随着企业和客户之间交流的增加,Twilio的业务也在增加。在加入电子邮件等其他媒体的同时,它还在继续建造一条更大的护城河。

So what is this simple pattern? 

那么,这个简单的模式是什么呢?

Well, the company tends to guide conservatively on earnings (not revenue), and each time, the stock sells off as a result. This is simply a façade though, as Twilio stock eventually comes back to life and everyone who sold feels like a fool. 

嗯,该公司倾向于保守地指引收益(而不是收入),每次都会导致股票抛售。不过,这只是一个表象,因为Twilio的股票最终会恢复生机,每个出售股票的人都感觉自己像个傻瓜。

Down 48% from the high at its recent low and Twilio is a high-quality but beaten-down growth stock ripe for accumulation. 

从近期低点的高点下跌了48%,Twilio是一只高质量但遭受重创的成长型股票,积累的时机已经成熟。

PagerDuty (PD)

寻呼机值班费(PD)

$PagerDuty(PD.US)$ recently reported a strong quarterly result, which at least for a moment, sent the stock higher. Following the result, shares rallied almost 18% in a two-day span from Dec. 6 to the 8th, but gave up most of the gains in the following sessions. 

$PagerDuty(PD.US)$最近公布了强劲的季度业绩,这至少在一段时间内推动该股走高。结果公布后,股价在12月6日至8日的两天内上涨了近18%,但在随后的几个交易日中回吐了大部分涨幅。

That's despite the company delivering a top-and bottom-line beat and providing above-consensus guidance. 

尽管该公司提供了顶层和底线的节拍,并提供了超出共识的指引,但仍是如此。

I don't know when the bear market in growth stocks will end, but I do know that PagerDuty should come roaring back to life when it does. The company simply continues to deliver top-notch results, while providing a fantastic business. 

我不知道成长型股票的熊市何时结束,但我知道,PagerDuty应该会在结束时重新焕发生机。该公司只是继续提供一流的业绩,同时提供一项出色的业务。

Essentially, spend $X with PagerDuty and it will save you multiples of that figure inefficiencies. There's more to it than that obviously, but that's the bottom-line pitch its sales team has been using for a while now. 

基本上,在PagerDuty上花费X美元,它将为您节省数倍于该数字的低效率。显然还有更多的原因,但这是它的销售团队已经使用了一段时间的底线。

When one sees the results firsthand for their business, why wouldn't they use them? And its current customers speak volumes, as the company's DBNR is through the roof. In other words, current customers continue to generate robust growth. That says a lot about the quality of PagerDuty's business.

当人们直接看到他们业务的结果时,他们为什么不使用它们呢?随着该公司的DBNR达到顶峰,它目前的客户数量很大。换句话说,目前的客户继续产生强劲的增长。这在很大程度上说明了PagerDuty的业务质量。

Cloudflare (NET)

云Flare(Net)

It looked like Cloudflare was one of the few growth stocks that was going to escape the bear market. A favorite among growth investors, $Cloudflare(NET.US)$ hit new all-time highs in mid-November. 

看起来Cloudflare是少数几只逃脱熊市的成长型股票之一。成长型投资者的最爱,$CloudFlare(NET.US)$在11月中旬创下历史新高。

Now just a month later and we're looking at a stock that's down 40%. The selling has been unbelievable. 

现在,仅仅一个月后,我们看到的是一只下跌了40%的股票。销售情况令人难以置信。

However, it's important to either have a go-to list of stocks you want when the market finally turns higher or a list of stocks that you will begin accumulating during the major corrections. 

然而,重要的是,要么有一个当市场最终走高时你想要的股票的首选列表,要么有一个你将开始积累的股票列表在.期间主要的修正。

The risk to both groups is obvious and we can take Cloudflare as an example. 

这两个群体面临的风险都是显而易见的,我们可以以Cloudflare为例。

Conservative investors who wait for the turn risk leaving a huge amount of money on the table as the reversal can be incredibly fast. Plus, those who wait long, turn higher risk, have a high-cost basis, and then watch the stock roll back over. On the flip side, investors who opt to start accumulating could see Cloudflare fall by another 20% or 30% before it ultimately bottoms. 

等待转折的保守投资者可能会在桌面上留下大量资金,因为逆转可能会令人难以置信地快。此外,那些等待时间较长、风险较高、成本基础较高、然后眼睁睁看着股票回滚的人。另一方面,选择开始积累的投资者可能会看到Cloudflare在最终触底之前再下跌20%或30%。

At some point though, Cloudflare and its peers will be back. You can only keep a stock like this down for so long. Analysts expect 50% revenue growth this year, 36% growth in 2022 and 32% growth in 2023. That growth eventually leads to higher stock prices, even when times seem dark. 

不过,在某一时刻,Cloudflare和它的同行将卷土重来。像这样的股票,你只能压低这么长时间。分析师预计今年营收增长50%,2022年增长36%,2023年增长32%。这种增长最终会带来更高的股价,即使在经济似乎很黑暗的时候也是如此。

Snap (SNAP)

捕捉(SNAP)

$Snap Inc(SNAP.US)$ is a stock that I have been tough on in the past. The founder and CEO Evan Spiegel wasn't doing enough to leverage the brand and Snap shareholders were suffering as a result. 

$Snap(SNAP.US)$是一只我过去一直对其态度强硬的股票。创始人兼首席执行官埃文·斯皮格尔在利用这个品牌方面做得不够,Snap的股东因此蒙受了损失。

The company's financials were not that strong and free cash flow was bleeding. Its margins were disappointing too. 

该公司的财务状况并不那么强劲,自由现金流也在不断减少。它的利润率也令人失望。

But now it seems to be one of the few social media platforms that actually have solid user growth. While I would love to see stronger margins with Snap and increased profitability, that could come down the road. 

但现在,它似乎是少数几个真正拥有稳健用户增长的社交媒体平台之一。虽然我希望看到更高的利润率和更高的盈利能力,但这可能会在未来发生。

The company did hit a snag with Apple's new privacy settings and while that is an issue that could prove to persist for more than one quarter, it's likely to be a short-term problem in the grand scheme of things. 

苹果的新隐私设置确实遇到了问题,虽然这个问题可能会持续超过一个季度,但从整体来看,这很可能是一个短期问题。

Still, analysts expect Snap to go from about $4 billion in sales this year to more than $8 billion in 2023. If that happens, the stock will likely be higher than current levels in 24 months. Sometimes it's just as simple as that. 

尽管如此,分析师预计Snap的销售额将从今年的约40亿美元增加到2023年的逾80亿美元。如果发生这种情况,该股可能会在24个月后高于当前水平。有时候事情就是这么简单。

Pinterest (PINS)

Pinterest(大头针)

For a bit more complicated of a social media pick, we have $Pinterest(PINS.US)$. Pinterest seems like the odd one out in the group, though. 

对于更复杂的社交媒体选择,我们有$Pinterest(PINS.US)$。不过,Pinterest似乎是这群人中的一个。

It has terrific growth, strong profitability and a good balance sheet. The company is well-situated in the e-commerce space with its platform too. However, Pinterest also has a user growth problem. 

它拥有惊人的增长、强劲的盈利能力和良好的资产负债表。该公司凭借其平台在电子商务领域也处于有利地位。然而,Pinterest也存在用户增长问题。

Simply put, Pinterest went from strong user growth during the pandemic to poor growth over the last two quarters. Those staying home and working on projects turned to Pinterest for inspiration. It's not weird that after a disruptive year full of lockdowns (and during the summer no less) that engagement and user growth fell. With the winter months ahead of us and a surging omicron variant in the mix, perhaps user growth will climb once again.

简而言之,Pinterest在疫情期间用户增长强劲,但在过去两个季度增长乏力。那些呆在家里从事项目的人转向Pinterest寻求灵感。这并不奇怪,在经历了颠覆性的一年,充斥着封锁(在夏天也是如此),参与度和用户增长都下降了。随着冬季的到来,以及新浪奥密克戎的迅猛发展,用户增长或许会再次攀升。

However Wall Street very well could discount that observation for the simple fact that user growth may retreat once those restrictions lift again.

然而,华尔街完全可以无视这样一个简单的事实,即一旦这些限制再次取消,用户增长可能会回落。

That said, the stock is likely worth a look after a 60% beating from the high. 

话虽如此,在从高点下跌60%之后,该股可能值得一看。

The company has the best margins in the social media space, behind only $Meta Platforms(FB.US)$. Revenue continues to chug in the right direction, it's actually profitable and after the selloff, the valuation isn't all that bad. 

该公司在社交媒体领域的利润率最高,仅次于$Meta平台(FB.US)$。收入继续朝着正确的方向增长,它实际上是有利可图的,在抛售之后,估值并没有那么糟糕。

My biggest issue with Pinterest? It's judged as a social media company, but it's arguably not social at all. It's effectively a visual search engine, more related to Google rather than Snapchat, in my opinion. 

我对Pinterest最大的问题?它被认为是一家社交媒体公司,但可以说它根本不是社交公司。它实际上是一个视觉搜索引擎,在我看来,它更多地与谷歌有关,而不是Snapchat。

On the date of publication, Bret Kenwell held a long position in ROKU, PD, SNAP and PINS. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

在发表之日,布雷特·肯威尔在Roku,PD,SNAP和Pins持有多头头寸。本文表达的观点是作者的观点,以InvestorPlace.com为准出版指南.

Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell

布雷特·肯威尔是该公司的经理,著有未来蓝筹股并在推特上@BretKenwell.

The post 7 Beaten-Down Growth Stocks to Buy for 2022 appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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