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Shortages Are Roiling Tech Stocks. Here's 1 That Looks Particularly Cheap. -- Barrons.com

Shortages Are Roiling Tech Stocks. Here's 1 That Looks Particularly Cheap. -- Barrons.com

短缺正在搅动科技股。这里有一个看起来特别便宜的。--Barrons.com
Dow Jones Newswires ·  2021/11/19 16:00

By Eric J. Savitz
作者:埃里克·J·萨维茨

As supply-chain issues roil the tech sector, no company underscores the issue more than Cisco Systems. The stock fell more than 6% on Thursday after the company reported financial results that were dented by a panoply of component delays. And yet, it's hard to find an enterprise tech company with a more appealing long-term outlook.

在供应链问题搅乱科技行业之际,没有一家公司比思科更强调这个问题。该股周四下跌逾6%,此前该公司公布的财务业绩受到一连串组件延迟的影响。然而,很难找到一家长期前景更具吸引力的企业科技公司。

While there will be continued near-term noise for Cisco (ticker: CSCO), investors should hop aboard now -- the selloff this past week has made a cheap stock even cheaper.

虽然思科(股票代码:CSCO)近期将继续面临噪音,但投资者现在应该加入进来--过去一周的抛售使得廉价股票变得更加便宜。

Cisco is seeing increased demand across its customer base: Cloud computing vendors are ramping up capital spending to meet soaring demand, telecom companies are rolling out their 5G networks around the world, and enterprise information-technology firms are accelerating spending as the pandemic fades.

思科看到其整个客户群的需求都在增加:云计算供应商正在加大资本支出,以满足飙升的需求,电信公司正在世界各地铺设5G网络,随着疫情的消退,企业信息技术公司正在加快支出。

In its fiscal first quarter ended on Oct. 30, Cisco saw 33% order growth, accelerating from 31% in the July quarter, with a whopping 200% growth in demand from "webscale" cloud providers and a 60% increase from telcos. Cisco said it exited the October quarter with the highest backlog in its history.

在截至10月30日的第一财季,思科的订单量增长了33%,高于7月当季的31%,“网络规模”云提供商的需求增长了200%,电信公司的需求增长了60%。思科表示,它以其历史上最高的积压状态退出了10月这个季度。

Investors were too focused on the supply-chain issues to notice. While revenue of $12.9 billion was up 8% from the total a year earlier, it was toward the low end of the company's guidance range of 7.5% to 9.5% and about $100 million shy of Wall Street estimates. The company's revenue outlook for the January quarter calls for growth of 4.5% to 6.5%. At the midpoint, that implies revenue of $12.6 billion, about $300 million short of the old Wall Street consensus. Cisco is selling everything it can, but demand has dramatically outstripped its ability to meet customer needs.

投资者过于关注供应链问题,而没有注意到。虽然129亿美元的营收比上年同期增长了8%,但接近该公司7.5%至9.5%的指导区间的低端,比华尔街的预期低了约1亿美元。该公司对1月当季的营收预期为增长4.5%至6.5%。按中间价计算,这意味着营收为126亿美元,比华尔街的旧共识低约3亿美元。思科正在尽其所能地销售产品,但需求已大大超出了其满足客户需求的能力。

Two months ago, I wrote a bullish column about Cisco, ahead of its first meeting with analysts in four years. I noted that July-quarter results had been better than expected, due to some of the factors noted above, including strong demand from cloud vendors.

两个月前,在思科四年来首次与分析师会面之前,我写了一篇看涨思科的专栏文章。我注意到,由于上面提到的一些因素,包括云供应商的强劲需求,7月份的季度业绩好于预期。

At the much-anticipated analyst meeting, Cisco said it expected annual profit and revenue growth of 5% to 7% through 2025, driven by an expanding portfolio of subscription-based businesses. And this past week, Cisco repeated its projection for growth in that same range for the July 2022 fiscal year, suggesting acceleration in the second half of the fiscal year.

在备受期待的分析师会议上,思科表示,在订阅业务组合不断扩大的推动下,预计到2025年,思科的年利润和收入将增长5%至7%。在过去的一周,思科重申了其对2022财年7月的增长预测,表明本财年下半年将加速增长。

But right now, supply-chain issues are creating multiple problems for the company. For one thing, Cisco can't get enough semiconductors, power supplies, and other key components to fulfill its needs. Manufacturing capacity is also an issue for Cisco, which doesn't do any in-house manufacturing.

但目前,供应链问题正在给该公司带来多个问题。首先,思科无法获得足够的半导体、电源和其他关键部件来满足其需求。对于思科来说,制造能力也是一个问题,因为它不做任何内部制造。

Cisco is providing financial support to contract manufacturing partners to expand capacity, and it's adding more suppliers to address a severe shortage of finished goods, but the larger problem remains.

思科正在向代工伙伴提供资金支持,以扩大产能,并正在增加更多供应商,以解决成品严重短缺的问题,但更大的问题仍然存在。

Cisco Chief Financial Officer Scott Herren says the company is "working night and day" to resolve the component shortages.

思科首席财务官斯科特·赫伦(Scott Herren)表示,公司正在“夜以继日地工作”,以解决零部件短缺的问题。

That's adding new expenses in the short term. To get parts faster, Cisco is paying surcharges for expedited delivery of some components. Herren says that air, ocean, and trucking shipping routes all remain "snarled."

这在短期内增加了新的支出。为了更快地获得部件,思科正在为某些组件的加速交付支付附加费。赫伦说,空运、海运和卡车运输路线都仍然“混乱”。

Cisco has raised prices on many products to offset the higher costs, but it will take time for the increases to flow through to the income statement, and pressure on margins will remain for at least the next few quarters.

思科已经提高了许多产品的价格,以抵消更高的成本,但涨价体现到损益表还需要时间,至少在未来几个季度,利润率的压力仍将存在。

J.P. Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee wrote this past week that Cisco's latest results offer "proof to the strong demand environment." He concedes that supply constraints have worsened since the company reported July-quarter results, but he views the headwinds as transient, with the company's accelerating orders "more reflective of the underlying pent-up demand for network and IT infrastructure upgrades."

摩根大通分析师Samik Chatterjee在过去一周撰文称,思科的最新业绩提供了“强劲需求环境的证据”.他承认,自该公司公布7月季度业绩以来,供应限制已经恶化,但他认为逆风是暂时的,该公司订单的加速“更多地反映了潜在的被压抑的网络和IT基础设施升级需求。”

Chatterjee has an Overweight rating on Cisco stock and a price target of $70, some 30% above a recent close of $53.63.

Chatterjee对思科股票的评级为增持,目标价为70美元,比最近53.63美元的收盘价高出约30%。

Cisco is hardly the only tech company dealing with shortages. As I wrote last month, supply-chain woes have hurt recent quarterly results at a variety of hardware companies, including Apple (AAPL), which said the issue is going to be even worse in the December quarter.

思科并不是唯一一家解决短缺问题的科技公司。正如我上个月所写的那样,供应链的困境损害了包括苹果(Apple)在内的多家硬件公司最近的季度业绩,苹果表示,这个问题在12月这个季度会变得更加糟糕。

Supply-chain problems will be a major topic of conversation in coming earnings calls from PC makers Dell Technologies (DELL) and HP Inc. (HPQ). They are both scheduled to report results after the close of trading on Tuesday.

在即将到来的个人电脑制造商戴尔技术公司(Dell Technologies)和惠普公司(HP Inc.)的财报电话会议上,供应链问题将成为主要话题。按计划,这两家公司都将在周二收盘后公布业绩。

The key question for investors in hardware stocks is whether orders are being delayed -- or destroyed. For some consumer goods, shortages during the holiday shopping season could result in gift-givers simply buying something else -- your loved ones might have to settle for a sweater over a laptop. But when it comes to IT infrastructure, Cisco's rivals face the same challenges; everyone is supply-constrained. No one is better-positioned.

对于硬件类股的投资者来说,关键问题是订单是否被推迟--或者被毁掉。对于一些消费品来说,假日购物季的短缺可能会导致送礼者简单地购买其他东西--你的亲人可能不得不满足于买一件毛衣,而不是笔记本电脑。但在IT基础设施方面,思科的竞争对手面临着同样的挑战;每个人都受到供应限制。没有人处于更有利的地位。

Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins told me that he sees no signs of lost orders so far. "At some point, you lose something to someone who can deliver faster," he said, while quickly adding that "we are getting our share the other way, as well."

思科首席执行官查克·罗宾斯(Chuck Robbins)告诉我,到目前为止,他还没有看到订单流失的迹象。“在某种程度上,你会输给能更快交付的人,”他说,同时迅速补充说,“我们也在以另一种方式获得我们的份额。”

Robbins noted that some competitors have deferred shipments to existing customers in order to supply new ones. But he also said that Cisco's cancellation rates are running below historic norms. In short, most of Cisco's customers will simply wait it out. Investors should do the same.

罗宾斯指出,一些竞争对手已经推迟了对现有客户的发货,以供应新的客户。但他也表示,思科的取消率低于历史正常水平。简而言之,思科的大多数客户都会简单地等待。投资者也应该这么做。

Write to Eric J. Savitz at eric.savitz@barrons.com

写信给埃里克·J·萨维茨(Eric J.Savitz),电子邮件:eric.savitz@Barrons.com

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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