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LIVE MARKETS-Late on your BoE homework? Here's a cheat sheet

LIVE MARKETS-Late on your BoE homework? Here's a cheat sheet

直播市场-英国央行的家庭作业迟到了?这是一张小抄
reuters ·  2021/11/04 05:44

* STOXX, DAX hit all-time highs

*STOXX,DAX创历史新高

* Fed tapers without tantrums

*美联储在没有发脾气的情况下缩减资产购买规模

* Eyes on BoE policy decision

*关注英国央行的政策决定

* U.S. stock futures up after record close

*美国股指期货在创纪录的收盘后上涨

Nov 4 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

11月4日-欢迎来到家里,接受路透社记者为您带来的实时市场报道。您可以通过market.Research@thomsonreurs.com与我们分享您的想法

LATE ON YOUR BOE HOMEWORK? HERE'S A CHEAT SHEET (0934 GMT)

京东方的家庭作业迟到了吗?这是一张小抄(格林威治时间0934)

If you haven't managed yet to prepare for possible market reactions to the crucial Bank of England policy announcement at 1200 GMT today, this cheat sheet from Vanda Research macro strategist Viraj Patel may turn out useful.

如果你还没有准备好应对今天格林威治时间1200时英国央行(Bank Of England)关键政策声明可能出现的市场反应,万达研究(Vanda Research)宏观策略师维拉杰·帕特尔(Viraj Patel)的这份小抄可能会被证明是有用的。

Patel says on Twitter: "Positioning for hawkish BoE trades is crowded now especially front-end & $GBP. No BoE hike or dovish hike will see big squeeze in short duration trades".

帕特尔在Twitter上表示:“现在,对英国央行鹰派交易的头寸非常拥挤,尤其是在前端&1英镑。无论英国央行加息还是鸽派加息,短期交易都不会受到很大挤压。”

Beyond the "hike or no hike" issue, Patel says there are many moving parts and that trading will be volatile. In detail, he says investors should watch out for:

帕特尔说,除了“加不加”的问题外,还有许多活动部件,交易将是不稳定的。具体而言,他表示,投资者应该注意以下几点:

1. MPC dissenters (2/3 expected if BoE hikes)?

1.货币政策委员会持不同政见者(如果英国央行加息,预计会有2/3)?

2. Early end to QE? (ends in Dec)

2.提前结束量化宽松?(12月结束)

3. Pace of hikes "gradual & limited"

3.加息步伐“渐进而有限”

4. GDP growth downgrades?

4.GDP增速下调?

5. Inflation persistence beyond 1H22?

5.通胀持续时间超过1h22?

More reading here:

更多信息请点击此处阅读:

BoE faces decision day, caught between inflation and slowdown risks

英国央行面临决定日,夹在通胀和经济放缓风险之间

(Danilo Masoni)

(Danilo Masoni)

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DAX RE-JOINS THE RECORD HIGH CLUB, VOL DROPS (0842 GMT)

DAX重新加入创纪录高位的俱乐部,销量下降(格林威治时间0842)

European shares are off to a positive start and among the highlights are the DAX .GDAXI re-joining the club of indices at record highs and the euro zone's volatility gauge .V2TX falling further to its lowest since mid-June.

欧洲股市开局积极,其中一个亮点是DAX指数.GDAXI重新加入创纪录高位的指数俱乐部,欧元区波动率指数.V2TX进一步跌至6月中旬以来的最低水平.

The message from the Federal Reserve was taken on the dovish side and now investors can focus on riding corporate earnings strength without worrying too much about the next move at the world's most powerful central bank.

美联储(Fed)发出的信息被认为是偏向鸽派的,现在投资者可以专注于利用企业盈利优势,而不必太担心世界上最强大的央行的下一步行动。

In the UK, the FTSE 100 .FTSE edged up 0.3% ahead of a truly crucial policy decision at the Bank of England.

在英国,富时100指数(FTSE 100)小幅上涨0.3%,英格兰银行(Bank Of England)将做出真正关键的政策决定。

Here's your opening snapshot:

以下是你的开场快照:

(Danilo Masoni)

(Danilo Masoni)

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DOVISH FED TAPER, NOW HAWKISH BOE? (0746 GMT)

鸽派美联储缩减量化宽松,现在鹰派英国央行?(格林威治时间0746)

Well done Mr. Powell! The Federal Reserve Chair looks to have managed to sell the dialling back of the bank's massive stimulus programme as a dovish taper and investors can now return to the joys of stock markets at record highs.

干得好,鲍威尔先生!美联储(Fed)主席似乎已成功地将美联储大规模刺激计划的回调推销为鸽派缩减规模,投资者现在可以重返创纪录高位的股市。

The U.S. policy package contained no nasty surprises — the $15 billion reduction in monthly purchases was consensual and the inflation is "transitory" message was reiterated.

美国的一揽子政策没有包含任何令人不快的意外-每月减少150亿美元的购买量是双方一致同意的,通胀是“暂时的”信息被重申。

As a result, European stock futures point to new all-time peaks after Wall Street notched another record close. And with earnings still squeezing out positive surprises and real yields deeply sub-zero, many see no choice but to keep investing in equities.

因此,在华尔街再创新高后,欧洲股指期货创下历史新高。由于盈利仍在挤出积极的惊喜,实际收益率严重低于零,许多人认为别无选择,只能继续投资股票。

With the Fed out of the way, it's D-day for the Bank of England

随着美联储的退出,英国央行(Bank Of England)迎来了诺曼底登陆日

which could become the first of the world's big central banks to raise rates since the coronavirus pandemic hit.

这可能成为自冠状病毒大流行以来世界上第一个提高利率的大型央行。

Poland surprised on Wednesday, with its biggest rate hike since 2000

波兰周三出人意料地宣布了自2000年以来最大幅度的加息。

jolting its banking stocks to all-time peaks.

将其银行类股推高至历史最高点。

Speaking of banks, Societe Generale saw better-than-expected Q3 profit growth, driven by strong corporate and investment banking revenues and lower bad loans.

谈到银行,法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)第三季度利润增长好于预期,得益于强劲的企业和投资银行收入以及较低的不良贷款。

Credit Suisse

瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)

on the other hand, posted a 21% fall in Q3 net profit hit by higher taxes and charges to settle allegations of corruption surrounding loans to Mozambique.

另一方面,该公司公布第三季度净利润下降21%,原因是税收和费用增加,以了结围绕莫桑比克贷款的腐败指控。

Finally, Ether ETH=BTSP , the world's No. 2 cryptocurrency, scaled another all-time high, rising as high as $4,670.81.

最后,全球第二大加密货币Ether ETH=BTSP再创历史新高,最高涨至4,670.81美元。

Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

周四应该会为市场提供更多方向的关键事态发展:

* Swiss drugmaker Roche agreed to buy a nearly one-third voting stake held by cross-town rival Novartis in itself for $20.7 billion

*瑞士制药商罗氏(Roche)同意以207亿美元收购跨城竞争对手诺华(Novartis)本身持有的近三分之一有表决权的股份

* Norway Central Bank meeting

*挪威央行会议

* Bank of England announces rate decision

*英国央行宣布利率决定

* ECB President Christine Lagarde and board member Isabel Schnable speak – 1245 GMT

*欧洲央行总裁拉加德和管委会成员伊莎贝尔·施纳布尔发表讲话-1245GMT

* German industrial output/manufacturing

*德国工业产出/制造业

* Final services PMI everywhere

*各地最终服务业采购经理人指数(PMI)

* Euro zone PPI

*欧元区PPI

* OPEC-plus meeting

*OPEC+会议

* South Africa's medium term budget statement, Czech National Bank meeting

*南非中期预算声明,捷克国家银行会议

* U.S. trade balance/weekly jobless

*美国贸易收支/每周失业人数

* Europe earnings: Amundi, Banco BPM, Commerzbank, BT, Euronext, Hannover Re, ING, Societe Generale, Telefonica, WizzAir

*欧洲收益:Amundi、Banco BPM、德国商业银行、BT、泛欧交易所、汉诺威再保险、荷兰国际集团、法国兴业银行、Telefonica、WizzAir

* U.S. earnings: Uber, AirBnb

*美国收益:优步,爱彼迎

(Danilo Masoni)

(Danilo Masoni)

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EUROPE: NEW RECORD PEAK IN SIGHT (0734 GMT)

欧洲:创纪录的峰值在望(格林威治时间0734)

European shares look set to open at fresh all-time highs this morning following another record-breaking session on Wall Street after the U.S. Federal Reserve engineered an orderly start to unwinding its massive stimulus programme.

欧洲股市今天上午开盘似乎将创下历史新高,此前华尔街股市再次创下纪录,此前美国联邦储备委员会(美联储,FED)设计了一个有序的开始,以解除其大规模刺激计划。

Futures on the DAX rose to an all-time peak and were last up 0.5% and Euro STOXX 50 futures added 0.6%.

DAX期货上涨至历史新高,最后上涨0.5%,Euro STOXX 50期货上涨0.6%。

FTSE futures gained 0.4% ahead of a crucial Bank of England meeting at which it could become the first of the world's big central banks to raise rates since the coronavirus pandemic.

富时指数期货上涨0.4%,随后英国央行(Bank Of England)将召开一次重要会议,届时英国央行可能成为自冠状病毒大流行以来世界上第一家加息的大型央行。

(Danilo Masoni)

(Danilo Masoni)

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