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TLRY Stock: Why Meme Traders Should Buy the Dip In Tilray

TLRY Stock: Why Meme Traders Should Buy the Dip In Tilray

TLRY股票:为什么Meme交易员应该买入Tilray中的DIP
InvestorPlace ·  2021/10/28 06:00

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So-called meme stocks have a very bad reputation among experienced investors, and for good reason. However, Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) stock is one meme stock that is much more than a pump-and-dump scheme.

所谓的表情包股票在经验丰富的投资者中名声很差,这是有充分理由的。然而,Tilray(纳斯达克股票代码:TLRY)股票是一种表情包股票,它不仅仅是一种哄抬和抛售的计划。

Source: Jarretera / Shutterstock.com

来源:Jarretera/Shutterstock.com

I recently wrote a story comparing meme stocks GameStop (NYSE:GME) and AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC). I got a lot of grief for my belief that both AMC and GameStop are terrible long-term investments. But just because most meme stocks are garbage investments doesn't mean all of them are.

我最近写了一篇文章比较了迷因股票游戏停止(纽约证券交易所代码:GME)和AMC娱乐公司(纽约证券交易所代码:AMC)。我认为AMC和GameStop都是糟糕的长期投资,这让我感到非常悲痛。但是,仅仅因为大多数表情包都是垃圾投资,并不意味着所有的表情包都是垃圾投资。

TLRY stock skyrocketed from under $10 to as high as $67 in a matter of weeks in early 2021. Since that social media-fueled trading frenzy, Tilray shares have pulled back to under $11. They are now down 36% in the past six months alone.

2021年初,TLRY的股价在几周内从不到10美元飙升至67美元。自从社交媒体引发的交易狂潮以来,Tilray的股价已经回落到11美元以下。仅在过去六个月里,Tilray的股价就下跌了36%。

I wouldn't recommend buying the dip in most meme stocks. But there are several reasons why investors shouldn't lump TLRY stock in with the rest of the meme stock pump-and-dumps.

我不建议买入大多数表情包股票的下跌。但投资者不应将TLRY股票与其他迷因股票混为一谈的原因有几个。

TLRY Stock Merger Synergies

TLRY股票合并协同效应

Tilray's high-profile merger with Aphria closed in May. The Aphria merger creates unparalleled scale for Tilray among Canadian cannabis stocks. It also creates cost synergies that play an important role in Tilray's important march to earnings before interest, taxes depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) profitability.

Tilray与Aphria的高调合并于5月完成。Aphria的合并为Tilray创造了加拿大大麻库存中无与伦比的规模。它还创造了成本协同效应,在Tilray实现利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA)盈利的重要进程中发挥了重要作用。

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"We anticipate multiple expansion as the potential Tilray/Aphria merger would enable the combined company to build scale, gain efficiencies, combine their cash position, and deliver consistent positive EBITDA," Bank of America analyst Heather Balsky wrote in a research note.

美国银行(Bank Of America)分析师希瑟·巴尔斯基(Heather Balsky)在一份研究报告中写道:“我们预计会出现多次扩张,因为潜在的Tilray/Aphria合并将使合并后的公司能够扩大规模,提高效率,合并现金状况,并实现一致的正EBITDA。”

Tilray has estimated the merger will create $80 million in synergies. In the first half of 2021, the company had realized only $55 million of those synergies, Balsky estimated.

Tilray估计,合并将创造8000万美元的协同效应。巴尔斯基估计,2021年上半年,该公司只实现了5500万美元的协同效应。

"We assume a benefit starting in [the second half of the fiscal year] now that the company has turned through legacy-Tilray inventory," she wrote.

“我们承担了一项福利,从[本财年下半年]现在公司已经完成了遗留的Tilray库存,“她写道。

Bank of America has a "buy" rating and $15 price target for TLRY stock.

美国银行对TLRY股票的评级为“买入”,目标价为15美元。

International Growth Opportunities

国际增长机遇

Today, Canadian cannabis companies are primarily focused on growing revenue and market share in Canada. Canada legalized cannabis back in 2018. Up to this point, pricing and growth in the Canadian market has been a big disappointment for investors.

今天,加拿大大麻公司主要关注的是在加拿大不断增长的收入和市场份额。加拿大早在2018年就将大麻合法化。到目前为止,加拿大市场的定价和增长一直令投资者大失所望。

In the years following Canadian legalization, Aphria focused on flower and vape sales. Lately, the company has expanded into edibles. By contrast, Tilray has focused on an asset-light model centered on developing consumer brands with meaningful pricing power.

在加拿大合法化后的几年里,Aphria专注于鲜花和蒸气的销售。最近,该公司已经扩展到食品领域。相比之下,Tilray专注于轻资产模式,专注于开发具有有意义的定价权的消费品牌。

Aphria also had a large international distribution business, something that differentiated it from many Canadian cannabis peers. For now, Canadian growth is lagging. Federal cannabis reform in the U.S. has disappointed. International demand outside of the U.S. may be the best growth source for Canadian cannabis stocks like Tilray. In that sense, Aphria could be a critical growth source in the near-term.

Aphria还拥有庞大的国际分销业务,这使其有别于许多加拿大大麻同行。就目前而言,加拿大的增长是滞后的。美国联邦大麻改革令人失望。美国以外的国际需求可能是Tilray等加拿大大麻库存的最佳增长来源。从这个意义上说,Aphria可能会在短期内成为一个关键的增长来源。

U.S. Expansion Opportunities

美国的扩张机会

If no for the legalization issue, the U.S. cannabis market would be the biggest and best opportunity in the North American cannabis market. Unfortunately, cannabis remains federally banned in the U.S. All Canadian cannabis companies can do is prepare to enter the U.S. market when and if legalization occurs.

如果合法化问题上没有,美国大麻市场将是北美大麻市场最大、最好的机会。不幸的是,美国联邦政府仍然禁止大麻。加拿大大麻公司所能做的就是准备在大麻合法化后进入美国市场。

Tilray took a major step in that direction in August when it acquired convertible notes representing a potential minority stake in U.S. multi-state cannabis operator Medmen Enterprises (OTC:MMNFF).

Tilray在8月份收购了代表美国多州大麻运营商潜在少数股权的可转换票据,朝着这个方向迈出了重要的一步梅德曼企业(场外交易:MMNFF)。

Morningstar analyst Kristoffer Inton says Tilray's decision to issue undervalued shares to fund the Medmen investment wasn't ideal.

晨星(Morningstar)分析师克里斯托弗·英顿(Kristoffe Inton)说,蒂尔雷决定发行估值过低的股票为MedMen的投资提供资金,这一决定并不理想。

"Nevertheless, we still see the deal as a net positive, accounting for about $1 to our fair value estimate while giving Tilray a toehold into the attractive U.S. market upon a change to federal law, which we view as likely by the end of calendar year 2023," Inton wrote in a research note.

Inton在一份研究报告中写道:“尽管如此,我们仍然认为这笔交易是一个净利好,比我们的公允价值估计高出约1美元,同时让Tilray在联邦法律修改后进入有吸引力的美国市场站稳脚跟,我们认为这有可能在2023年底之前完成,”Inton在一份研究报告中写道。

Inton says the U.S. market has the best growth potential of any global cannabis market.

因顿说,美国市场是全球大麻市场中增长潜力最大的。

"We expect federal law will eventually be changed to allow states to choose the legality of cannabis within their borders," he says.

他说:“我们预计联邦法律最终将被修改,允许各州在其境内选择大麻的合法性。”

Morningstar has a "buy" rating and $17 fair value estimate for TLRY stock.

晨星对TLRY股票的评级为“买入”,公允价值估计为17美元。

How To Play TLRY Stock

如何打好TLRY股票

If you were trading TLRY stock as a meme stock in February, it's a completely different investment these days. It may not be trending on social media. It may not have bullish momentum. And it probably won't make you rich overnight.

如果你在2月份将TLRY股票作为表情包股票进行交易,那么如今这是一种完全不同的投资。这可能不会在社交媒体上流行起来。它可能没有看涨势头。而且这可能不会让你一夜暴富。

But if you are looking for a high-quality play on a high-risk market like cannabis that has massive long-term growth potential, TLRY stock is a top-tier cannabis stock to buy on the dip.

但如果你在大麻这样具有巨大长期增长潜力的高风险市场上寻找高质量的投资机会,TLRY股票是在低迷时买入的顶级大麻股票。

On the date of publication, Wayne Duggan did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

在出版之日,韦恩·达根(Wayne Duggan)没有(直接或间接)持有本文所述证券的任何头寸。本文中表达的观点是作者的观点,受InvestorPlace.com发布指南的约束。

Wayne Duggan has been a U.S. News & World Report Investing contributor since 2016 and is a staff writer at Benzinga, where he has written more than 7,000 articles. Mr. Duggan is the author of the book "Beating Wall Street With Common Sense," which focuses on investing psychology and practical strategies to outperform the stock market.

韦恩·达根(Wayne Duggan)自2016年以来一直是《美国新闻与世界报道》(U.S.News&World Report)的投资撰稿人,也是Benzinga的专职作家,他在Benzinga撰写了7000多篇文章。达根先生是“用常识击败华尔街”(Bricing Wall Street With Common Sense)一书的作者,该书关注的是投资心理和超越股市的实用策略。

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