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LIVE MARKETS-Indian summer: CPI, mortgage rates put the heat on

LIVE MARKETS-Indian summer: CPI, mortgage rates put the heat on

直播市场-印度夏季:CPI,抵押贷款利率升温
reuters ·  2021/10/13 10:44

* Dow, S&P 500 red; Nasdaq gains

*道琼斯指数,标准普尔500红色;纳斯达克上涨

* Financials weakest S&P sector; tech leads gainers

*金融类股是标准普尔板块中最弱的;科技股领涨

* Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.6%

*Euro STOXX 600指数上涨约0.6%

* Gold up; dollar, crude, bitcoin fall

*金价上涨;美元、原油、比特币下跌

* U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~1.54%

*美国10年期公债收益率~1.54%

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

欢迎您收看路透社记者为您带来的实时市场报道。您可以通过market.Research@thomsonreurs.com与我们分享您的想法

INDIAN SUMMER: CPI, MORTGAGE RATES PUT THE HEAT ON (1042 EDT/1442 GMT)

印度夏季:CPI,抵押贷款利率升温(美国东部时间1042/格林威治时间1442)

Leaves are falling - and even snow in some parts of the country - but consumer prices and mortgage rates are pushing the mercury higher.

树叶正在飘落,该国部分地区甚至下雪,但消费者价格和抵押贷款利率正在推高水银。

The prices U.S. urban consumers pay for a basket of goods

美国城市消费者购买一篮子商品的价格

USCPI=ECI rose by 0.4% in August, an acceleration from the previous month and hotter than the 0.3% consensus.

USCPI=ECI 8月上升0.4%,较前月加快,且高于0.3%的普遍预期。

"We need to bifurcate and see where the inflation is," writes Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors. "It's not a one-size fits all answer."

Wealthspire Advisors高级副总裁奥利弗·普尔舍(Oliver Pursche)写道:“我们需要分叉,看看通胀在哪里。”“这不是放之四海而皆准的答案。”

Fair enough, so let's delve deeper into the Labor Department's consumer price index (CPI) report. A 6.4% drop in air fares - a predictable adjustment following the spikes in early summer - was more than offset by gains in housing, new cars and gasoline, among others.

这很合理,所以让我们更深入地研究劳工部的消费者物价指数(CPI)报告。机票价格下降6.4%-这是初夏飙升后的可预见的调整-被住房、新车和汽油等方面的上涨所抵消。

Core CPI USCPFY=ECI , which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose at 4% year-over-year, inline with expectations.

剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心CPI USCPFY=ECI同比上涨4%,符合预期。

As to whether this report is likely to accelerate or have little effect on the U.S. Federal Reserve's expected timeline for tightening its monetary policy, opinions differ.

至于这份报告是否可能加速或对美国联邦储备委员会(美联储,FED)收紧货币政策的预期时间表影响不大,各方意见不一.

"It reassures the Fed because there were no surprises," Pursche adds.

“这让美联储放心,因为没有什么意外,”珀舍补充道。

But Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital, isn't quite so sure.

但斯巴达资本(Spartan Capital)首席市场经济学家彼得·卡迪罗(Peter Cardillo)就不那么确定了。

"Inflation is going to be more long-lasting than the Fed expects," Cardillo says. "In my opinion this accelerates the tapering move and we’ll probably get an announcement next month."

卡迪罗说:“通胀将比美联储预期的更为持久。”“在我看来,这加快了缩减量化宽松的步伐,我们可能会在下个月收到一份声明。”

Minutes from the central bank's most recent monetary policy meeting could shed light in that direction.

央行最近一次货币政策会议的会议纪要可能会揭示这一方向。

Core CPI, shown along with other major indicators in the graphic below, continue to soar well above the Fed's average annual 2% inflation target:

与下图所示其他主要指标一起显示的核心CPI继续飙升,远高于美联储年均2%的通胀目标:

Separately, demand for home loans eked out a nominal gain last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), despite yet another uptick in rates.

另外,根据抵押贷款银行家协会(MBA)的数据,尽管利率再次上升,但上周对住房贷款的需求勉强维持了名义增长。

The average 30-year fixed contract rate USMG=ECI grew by 4 basis points to 3.18%, marking the third consecutive weekly gain.

平均30年期固定合约利率USMG=ECI上涨4个基点至3.18%,为连续第三周上涨.

Even so, applications for loans to purchase homes

即便如此,购房贷款申请

USMGPI=ECI jumped by 1.5%, a gain that was nearly completely offset by a 0.5% decline in refi demand USMGR=ECI , which constitutes the bulk of the total.

USMGPI=ECI跳升1.5%,这一涨幅几乎完全被再融资需求下降0.5%所抵消,再融资需求USMGR=ECI占总需求的大部分。

"Mortgage rates reached their highest level since June 2021, but application activity changed little this week," notes Joel Kan, associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting at MBA.

MBA负责经济和行业预测的副总裁乔尔·坎(Joel Kan)指出:“抵押贷款利率达到了2021年6月以来的最高水平,但本周申请活动变化不大。”

Nancy Vanden Hauten, lead economist at Oxford Economics, believes this data points to resiliency in the housing market and suggests home sales could bounce back in September from August's drop.

牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)首席经济学家南希·范登·豪滕(Nancy Vanden Hauten)认为,这一数据表明房地产市场具有弹性,并表明9月份房屋销售可能会从8月份的下降中反弹。

"We expect the housing market to continue to be buffeted by the crosscurrents of strong demand, limited supply and high prices," Hauten writes. "While mortgage rates remain relatively low on a historical basis, the recent backup in mortgage rates will take an added toll on homebuying affordability at the margin."

豪腾写道:“我们预计房地产市场将继续受到强劲需求、有限供应和高价格的逆流冲击。”“虽然抵押贷款利率在历史上保持在相对较低的水平,但最近抵押贷款利率的回升将对购房负担能力造成额外的影响。”

Wall Street appeared to be dancing the same tango it's been doing over the last few sessions - starting strong then steadily running out of gas.

华尔街似乎在跳着过去几个交易日一直跳的探戈--开始强劲,然后逐渐耗尽汽油。

Most recently, all three major U.S. stock indexes were well off their opening highs.

最近,美国三大股指都远低于开盘高点。

The S&P 500 and the Dow were dragged into negative territory by weak financial stocks .SPSY , while a meager gain in tech

标准普尔500指数和道琼斯指数受疲软的金融股.SPSY拖累跌至负值区域,而科技股小幅上涨.

.SPLRCT is helping to keep the Nasdaq modestly green.

.SPLRCT正在帮助纳斯达克指数保持适度绿色。

(Stephen Culp)

(斯蒂芬·卡尔普)

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INITIAL U.S. STRENGTH FADES, INDEXES TURN MIXED (1005 EDT/1405 GMT)

美国最初的强势消退,指数涨跌互现(美国东部时间1005/格林威治时间1405)

After an opening push higher, Wall Street's main indexes have turned mixed. This as investors are digesting a solid rise in monthly consumer prices, and a dip in bond yields. .N

在开盘走高之后,华尔街主要股指涨跌互现。与此同时,投资者正在消化月度消费者价格指数(CPI)的稳步上涨和债券收益率的下降。.N

The Dow .DJI and S&P 500 .SPX are now trading down on the day. The Nasdaq .IXIC , although already off its early high, is being boosted by tech stocks .SPLRCT , and is still in positive territory.

道琼斯指数.DJI和标准普尔500指数.SPX目前正在下跌。Nasdaq指数.IXIC虽然已经脱离早盘高位,但正受到科技股.SPLRCT的提振,仍处于正值区间.

Of note, the major indexes, as well as the S&P tech sector, have all fallen three-straight days.

值得注意的是,主要股指以及标准普尔科技股都连续三天下跌。

Meanwhile, with the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield US10YT=RR back down to the 1.54% area, financials .SPSY are taking the biggest hit among S&P sectors.

与此同时,随着美国10年期公债收益率US10YT=RR回落至1.54%区域,金融股.SPSY在标普板块中受到的打击最大.

Here is where markets stand in early trade:

以下是市场在早盘交易中的立场:

(Terence Gabriel)

(特伦斯·加布里尔)

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NASDAQ 100 TRIPLE-Qs: GOING WITH THE FLOW (0907 EDT/1307 GMT)

纳斯达克100三季度:随波逐流(美国东部时间0907/格林威治时间1307)

The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 QQQ.O , which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index .NDX , is down around 6% from its early September high. In so doing, it has also violated a monthly support line from its March 2020 low.

追踪Nasdaq 100指数.NDX的景顺QQQ Trust Series 1 QQQ.O较9月初高点下跌约6%。在这样做的同时,它也突破了从2020年3月低点开始的月度支撑线。

Meanwhile, one indicator that incorporates both price and volume, the Money Flow index (MFI), continues to track within converging trendlines:

与此同时,一个同时包含价格和交易量的指标--货币流动指数(MFI)--继续在趋同的趋势线内追踪:

On a monthly basis, and since early 2018, the MFI has been trapped between a resistance line from its 2014 high and a support line from its 2009 low.

按月计算,自2018年初以来,MFI一直被困在2014年高点的阻力线和2009年低点的支撑线之间。

After once again topping shy of the resistance line this past August, the MFI appears on track for another test of the support line. Another test of that support line could suggest risk for greater QQQ weakness.

在过去的8月份再次跌破阻力线后,MFI似乎走上了再次测试支撑线的轨道。对该支撑线的另一次测试可能暗示QQQ更疲软的风险。

However, if the support line can continue to work its magic, and the MFI can bottom, a significant QQQ low may once again be found.

然而,如果支撑线能够继续发挥它的魔力,MFI可以触底,QQQ可能会再次出现显著的低点。

Conversely, an MFI support line break will end what has been a consistent pattern, and instead suggest potential that QQQ weakness may become a waterfall slide.

相反,MFI支撑线的突破将结束一贯的模式,转而暗示QQQ疲软可能会变成瀑布下滑。

(Terence Gabriel)

(特伦斯·加布里尔)

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FOR WEDNESDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0907 EDT/1307 GMT - CLICK HERE:

有关美国东部时间0907/格林威治时间1307之前周三现场市场的帖子,请单击此处:

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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Terence Gabriel是路透社的市场分析师。本文仅代表其个人观点。)

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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