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Emerging Markets: Why Gazprom's Moment May Last for a While -- Barron's
Emerging Markets: Why Gazprom's Moment May Last for a While -- Barron's
DJ Emerging Markets: Why Gazprom's Moment May Last for a While -- Barron's
By Craig Mellow
Talk about a rotation play. Russian state-owned natural gas giant Gazprom Neft has a miserable financial history. Its London-listed shares shrank by half in the decade preceding Jan. 1, 2021.
This year is different. Gazprom stock ( ticker: OGZD.U.K.) has nearly doubled since April as prices in its core European Union market soared into the stratosphere and beyond.
The EU energy crunch may complicate politics for Gazprom's ultimate boss, Russian President Vladimir Putin. For investors it has been a no-brainer. "As long as we're seeing this huge spot price, people are buying Gazprom," says Mitch Jennings, senior oil and gas analyst at Sova Capital in Moscow.
It's tempting to think of Russia and Gazprom as the "Saudi Arabia of gas, " and assume they could ease the market if they wanted to. That would be tempting but not quite right. "Once oil is out of the ground, it can be shipped anywhere in the world for about a dollar a barrel," says Ronald Smith, senior oil and gas analyst at Russia-based BCS Global Markets.
Gazprom's output depends on mega-priced natural-gas pipelines to reach a particular customer. European buyers have been favoring liquefied natural gas and renewables in recent years; Gazprom has delayed new production for lack of orders.
"Gazprom has been clear that first they sell gas, then they produce it," says Vitaly Yermakov, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. "Now they simply can't balance the European market singlehandedly."
There is some suspense, however, around what happens once Gazprom fills up Russia's own winter gas storage, which should happen over the next month.
Putin himself said on Oct. 6 that Russia should "think through the potential increase of supply on the market." His energy minister hinted that would happen faster if Germany quickly approves the long-germinating Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which allows Russia to circumvent Ukraine for gas transit.
Nord Stream 2 is no quick fix, though. It might yield around 1% of EU consumption this season, Sova's Jennings estimates.
All of which looks great for Gazprom's bottom line. Prices should stay at $20 per billion British thermal units (MMBTU) in Europe this winter, up from $4 a year ago, BCS' Smith projects, then subside to $7 by 2023.
The full force of today's prices will hit Gazprom's revenues only next year as half its contracts are linked to oil or gas markets with several months' lag, Yermakov adds. "The prices Gazprom actually receives should increase in a very dramatic way in early 2022," he says.
Another reason to like Gazprom is dividends, lots of dividends. After a protracted struggle, Russia's finance ministry forced the company to pay 50% of net profit out to shareholders.
The Russian state itself is the largest of these shareholders, but private investors can still hitch a lucrative ride. With earnings rising even faster than the share price, Gazprom's dividend yield could be north of 15% next year, figures Jacob Grapengiesser, a partner at East Capital. "The consensus is significantly underestimating gas prices," he says.
The bad news for Russian markets is that the Kremlin will keep almost the whole gas windfall, through dividends and taxation, and save it, with little spillover to the struggling consumer economy.
"Russian consumer stocks have been absolute dogs this year," Grapengiesser says.
That may be, but Gazprom's moment may last a while.
Email: editors@barrons.com
To subscribe to Barron's, visit http://www.barrons.com/subscribe
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 08, 2021 21:30 ET (01:30 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
DJ Emerging Markets: Why Gazprom's Moment May Last for a While -- Barron's
DJ新兴市场:俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的时刻为何会持续一段时间--巴伦的
By Craig Mellow
克雷格·梅洛(Craig Mello)著
Talk about a rotation play. Russian state-owned natural gas giant Gazprom Neft has a miserable financial history. Its London-listed shares shrank by half in the decade preceding Jan. 1, 2021.
谈一谈轮换打法。俄罗斯国有天然气巨头俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom Neft)的财务历史很糟糕。在2021年1月1日之前的十年里,该公司在伦敦上市的股票缩水了一半。
This year is different. Gazprom stock ( ticker: OGZD.U.K.) has nearly doubled since April as prices in its core European Union market soared into the stratosphere and beyond.
今年不同。俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(股票代码:OGZD.U.K.)自4月份以来,随着其核心欧盟市场的价格飙升至平流层和更高水平,该公司的股价几乎翻了一番。
The EU energy crunch may complicate politics for Gazprom's ultimate boss, Russian President Vladimir Putin. For investors it has been a no-brainer. "As long as we're seeing this huge spot price, people are buying Gazprom," says Mitch Jennings, senior oil and gas analyst at Sova Capital in Moscow.
欧盟能源危机可能使俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)的终极老板、俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)的政治复杂化。对于投资者来说,这是不需要动脑筋的。Sova Capital驻莫斯科的资深油气分析师米奇·詹宁斯(Mitch Jennings)表示:“只要我们看到这一巨大的现货价格,人们就在买入俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)。”
It's tempting to think of Russia and Gazprom as the "Saudi Arabia of gas, " and assume they could ease the market if they wanted to. That would be tempting but not quite right. "Once oil is out of the ground, it can be shipped anywhere in the world for about a dollar a barrel," says Ronald Smith, senior oil and gas analyst at Russia-based BCS Global Markets.
人们很容易把俄罗斯和俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)想象成“天然气中的沙特阿拉伯”,并认为如果他们愿意,他们可以放松市场。这将是诱人的,但并不完全正确。总部位于俄罗斯的BCS Global Markets的资深油气分析师罗纳德·史密斯(Ronald Smith)表示:“一旦石油从地下挖出,它就可以以每桶约一美元的价格运往世界任何地方。”
Gazprom's output depends on mega-priced natural-gas pipelines to reach a particular customer. European buyers have been favoring liquefied natural gas and renewables in recent years; Gazprom has delayed new production for lack of orders.
俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的产量依赖于价格不菲的天然气管道才能到达特定的客户手中。近年来,欧洲买家一直青睐液化天然气和可再生能源;俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)因缺乏订单而推迟了新的生产。
"Gazprom has been clear that first they sell gas, then they produce it," says Vitaly Yermakov, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. "Now they simply can't balance the European market singlehandedly."
牛津能源研究所(Oxford Institute For Energy Studies)高级研究员维塔利·叶尔马科夫(Vitaly Yermakov)表示:“俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司已经明确表示,他们先销售天然气,然后生产天然气。”“现在他们根本无法单枪匹马地平衡欧洲市场。”
There is some suspense, however, around what happens once Gazprom fills up Russia's own winter gas storage, which should happen over the next month.
然而,一旦俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)填满俄罗斯自己的冬季储气库,会发生什么,还存在一些悬念。俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司应该在下个月装满天然气储气库。
Putin himself said on Oct. 6 that Russia should "think through the potential increase of supply on the market." His energy minister hinted that would happen faster if Germany quickly approves the long-germinating Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which allows Russia to circumvent Ukraine for gas transit.
普京本人在10月6日表示,俄罗斯应该“考虑一下潜在的市场供应增加问题”。他的能源部长暗示,如果德国迅速批准酝酿已久的北溪2号(Nord Stream 2)管道,这种情况将会更快发生。该管道允许俄罗斯绕过乌克兰进行天然气运输。
Nord Stream 2 is no quick fix, though. It might yield around 1% of EU consumption this season, Sova's Jennings estimates.
不过,Nord Stream 2并不是一个快速解决方案。Sova的詹宁斯估计,这一季它可能产生约1%的欧盟消费。
All of which looks great for Gazprom's bottom line. Prices should stay at $20 per billion British thermal units (MMBTU) in Europe this winter, up from $4 a year ago, BCS' Smith projects, then subside to $7 by 2023.
所有这些对俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的底线来说看起来都很不错。BCS的史密斯预计,今年冬天,欧洲的价格应该会保持在每10亿英热单位(MMBTU)20美元,高于一年前的4美元,然后到2023年回落到7美元。
The full force of today's prices will hit Gazprom's revenues only next year as half its contracts are linked to oil or gas markets with several months' lag, Yermakov adds. "The prices Gazprom actually receives should increase in a very dramatic way in early 2022," he says.
叶尔马科夫补充说,当前价格的全部力量要到明年才会打击俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的收入,因为该公司一半的合同都与石油或天然气市场挂钩,滞后了几个月。他表示:“2022年初,俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司实际收到的价格应该会以非常戏剧性的方式上涨。”
Another reason to like Gazprom is dividends, lots of dividends. After a protracted struggle, Russia's finance ministry forced the company to pay 50% of net profit out to shareholders.
喜欢俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的另一个原因是红利,很多红利。在一场旷日持久的斗争之后,俄罗斯财政部迫使该公司向股东支付净利润的50%。
The Russian state itself is the largest of these shareholders, but private investors can still hitch a lucrative ride. With earnings rising even faster than the share price, Gazprom's dividend yield could be north of 15% next year, figures Jacob Grapengiesser, a partner at East Capital. "The consensus is significantly underestimating gas prices," he says.
俄罗斯政府本身就是这些股东中最大的,但私人投资者仍然可以搭上有利可图的便车。东方资本(East Capital)合伙人雅各布·格拉彭吉瑟(Jacob Grapengiesser)认为,由于收益增长速度甚至快于股价,俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司明年的股息收益率可能会超过15%。他表示:“人们的共识严重低估了天然气价格。”
The bad news for Russian markets is that the Kremlin will keep almost the whole gas windfall, through dividends and taxation, and save it, with little spillover to the struggling consumer economy.
对俄罗斯市场来说,坏消息是,克里姆林宫将通过股息和税收保留几乎全部的天然气意外之财,并将其储蓄起来,几乎不会对苦苦挣扎的消费经济产生溢出效应。
"Russian consumer stocks have been absolute dogs this year," Grapengiesser says.
Grapengiesser说:“俄罗斯的消费类股今年绝对是只狗。”
That may be, but Gazprom's moment may last a while.
也许是这样,但俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的时刻可能会持续一段时间。
Email: editors@barrons.com
电子邮件:eders@Barrons.com
To subscribe to Barron's, visit http://www.barrons.com/subscribe
欲订阅巴伦百货,请访问http://www.barrons.com/subscribe
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
(完)道琼通讯社
October 08, 2021 21:30 ET (01:30 GMT)
美国东部时间2021年10月8日21:30(格林尼治标准时间01:30)
Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
版权所有(C)2021年道琼斯公司
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在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
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