More than a quarter of Nasdaq-100 stocks are in bear markets -- Wall Street sees a buying opportunity
More than a quarter of Nasdaq-100 stocks are in bear markets -- Wall Street sees a buying opportunity
By Philip van Doorn
菲利普·范·多恩(Philip Van Doorn)
Stocks down more than 50% from their 52-week highs include Pinduoduo, Baidu, Zoom Video Communications and Peloton
从52周高点下跌超过50%的股票包括拼多多、百度集团-SW、Zoom Video Communications和Peloton
The Nasdaq-100 Index has performed very well against the broader S&P 500 index in recent years and it is down only 6% from its record intraday high set on Sept. 7. Even so, more than a quarter of stocks in the Nasdaq-100 are in bear markets -- down at least 20% from their 52-week highs.
纳斯达克-100指数(Nasdaq-100 Index)近年来相对于更广泛的标准普尔500指数(S&P500 index)表现非常好，仅比9月9日创下的盘中纪录高点下跌了6%。7.即便如此，纳斯达克100指数(Nasdaq-100)中仍有超过四分之一的股票处于熊市，较52周高点至少下跌了20%。
Before looking at those stocks, let's take a quick look at the Nasdaq-100 Index . It is made up of the largest 100 non-financial stocks in the full Nasdaq Composite Index and is weighted by market capitalization. The Nasdaq-100 has greatly outperformed the S&P 500 index (which is also weighted by market cap) in recent years.
在看这些股票之前，我们先来快速浏览一下纳斯达克-100指数(Nasdaq-100 Index)。它由纳斯达克综合指数(Nasdaq Composite Index)中规模最大的100只非金融类股组成，按市值加权。纳斯达克-100指数(Nasdaq-100)近年来的表现远远好于标准普尔500指数(S&P500 Index)(该指数也是按市值加权的)。
Using exchange-traded funds that track both -- the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) for the Nasdaq-100 and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), here is a 10-year chart showing total returns, with dividends reinvested:
使用追踪纳斯达克100指数的景顺QQQ信托(Invesco QQQ Trust)和标普500ETF(SPDR S&P500ETF Trust)这两只ETF的交易所交易基金(ETF)，以下是一张显示总回报(包括股息再投资)的10年图表：
One reason for QQQ's outperformance over the past 10 years has been its heavy concentration in giant tech companies. As of the close on Sept. 27, the top five companies held by QQQ (Apple Inc. (AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Tesla Inc. (TSLA) and two common-share classes of Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)(GOOGL)) made up 41.3% of the portfolio. Meanwhile the top five positions of SPY (the same, except replace Tesla with Facebook Inc. (FB)) made up 22.6% of its portfolio.
QQQ在过去10年中表现优异的原因之一是它高度集中在大型科技公司。截至9月1日收盘，27，QQQ持有的前五大公司(苹果、微软(Microsoft Corp.)、亚马逊、特斯拉(Tesla Inc.)和谷歌(Alphabet Inc.)的两个普通股类别)占投资组合的41.3%。与此同时，标普500ETF的前五个职位(相同，除了用Facebook取代特斯拉)占其投资组合的22.6%。
Another important difference between the indexes is the Nasdaq-100 includes American depositary receipts of some non-U.S. companies, while the S&P 500 excludes ADRs. Some of the ADRs held by QQQ are included in the list below.
这两个指数之间的另一个重要区别是，Nasdaq-100指数包括一些非美国公司的美国存托凭证(ADR)，而标准普尔500指数(S&P500)不包括美国存托凭证(ADR)。下面列出了QQQ持有的部分ADR。
Here's a comparison of average annual returns for the two ETFs over many periods:
以下是这两只ETF在多个时期的平均年回报率比较：
ETF 3 Years 5 Years 10 years 15 Years 20 Years Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ 25.6% 25.8% 22.0% 16.6% 14.2% SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY 16.3% 17.0% 16.4% 10.3% 9.5% Source: FactSet
ETF 3年5年10年15年20年景顺QQQ信托QQQ 25.6%25.8%22.0%16.6%14.2%SPDR标准普尔500ETF信托标普500ETF 16.3%17.0%16.4%10.3%9.5%来源：Factset
One thing to keep an eye on is the relative cost of the indexes/ETFs. QQQ looks a bit expensive relative to where it usually trades against SPY. Here's a comparison of current forward price-to-earnings ratios with averages:
有一件事需要密切关注，那就是指数/ETF的相对成本。与标普500ETF通常的交易价格相比，QQQ看起来有点贵。以下是当前预期市盈率与平均市盈率的比较：
ETF Forward P/E 10-year average forward P/E 15-year average forward P/E Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ 26.95 19.32 18.73 SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 20.82 16.37 15.26 Source: FactSet
ETF远期市盈率10年平均远期市盈率15年平均远期市盈率QQQ信托QQQ 26.95 19.32 18.73 SPDR标准普尔500指数ETF信托20.82 16.37 15.26来源：FactSet
So QQQ now trades for 129% of SPY's forward P/E valuation. It has traded for 118% of SPY's forward P/E on average over 10 years and 123% based on the 15-year averages.
因此，QQQ目前的市盈率是标普500ETF远期市盈率的129%。10年来，它的平均市盈率是标普500ETF远期市盈率的118%，根据15年的平均市盈率，它的市盈率为123%。
The Nasdaq-100 bear list
纳斯达克100指数熊市名单
There are actually 102 stocks in the Nasdaq-100 because Alphabet and Fox Corp. have two common-share classes apiece. Here are the 22 stocks among them that were down at least 20% from their 52-week highs as of the close on Sept. 28:
纳斯达克100指数(Nasdaq-100)实际上有102只股票，因为Alphabet和福克斯公司(Fox Corp.)各有两个普通股类别。以下是截至9月1日收盘时较52周高点下跌至少20%的22只股票。28：
Company Decline from 52-week high 52-week high Date of 52-week high Closing Price -- Sept. 28 Pinduoduo Inc. ADR Class A PDD -58.1% $212.60 02/16/2021 $89.00 Baidu Inc. ADR Class A BIDU -56.6% $354.82 02/22/2021 $154.02 Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A ZM -55.5% $588.84 10/19/2020 $261.89 Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A PTON -48.7% $171.09 01/14/2021 $87.80 Biogen Inc. BIIB -39.2% $468.55 06/07/2021 $284.71 Splunk Inc. SPLK -37.3% $222.19 10/21/2020 $139.42 NetEase Inc. ADR NTES -37.0% $134.33 02/11/2021 $84.69 Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. VRTX -35.4% $280.99 10/13/2020 $181.60 Trip.com Group Ltd. ADR TCOM -33.6% $45.19 03/17/2021 $30.01 Incyte Corp. INCY -32.3% $101.47 01/25/2021 $68.68 JD.com Inc. ADR Class A JD -30.4% $108.29 02/17/2021 $75.42 Dollar Tree Inc. DLTR -28.3% $120.37 04/06/2021 $86.28 Activision Blizzard Inc. ATVI -27.0% $104.53 02/16/2021 $76.33 Illumina Inc. ILMN -26.2% $555.77 02/12/2021 $410.20 Sirius XM Holdings Inc. SIRI -25.1% $8.14 01/27/2021 $6.10 Micron Technology Inc. MU -24.6% $96.96 04/12/2021 $73.10 Seagen Inc. SGEN -24.6% $213.94 10/13/2020 $161.40 Amgen Inc. AMGN -23.3% $276.69 01/28/2021 $212.27 Moderna Inc. MRNA -22.8% $497.49 08/10/2021 $384.21 Qualcomm Inc. QCOM -22.7% $167.94 01/20/2021 $129.90 Paccar Inc. PCAR -21.7% $103.19 01/21/2021 $80.82 Intel Corp. INTC -21.2% $68.49 04/12/2021 $54.00 Source: FactSet
公司股价从52周高位52周高位回落至52周高位收盘价-9月1日。28拼多多公司A类美国存托凭证-58.1%$212.60 02/16/2021年$89.00百度-56.6%$354.82 02/22/2021年$154.02 Zoom视频通讯A类ZM-55.5%$588.84 10/19$261.89佩洛顿互动公司A类PTON-48.7%$171.09 01/14/2021年$87.80生物遗传公司BIIB-39.2%$468.55 06/072021年$284.71 Splunk Inc.$37.3%$222.19 2020年10月21日$139.42网易-37.0%$134.33 02/11/2021年$84.69 Vertex制药公司VRTX-35.4%$280.99 2020年10月13日$181.60携程集团-S集团有限公司$45.1903/17/2021年$30.01 Incell Corp.INCY-32.3%$101.47/01/25/2021$68.68京东A类美国存托凭证JD-30.4%$108.29 02/17/2021年$75.42Dollar Tree Inc.DLTR-28.3%$120.37 04/06/2021年$86.28Activision Blizzard Inc.ATVI-27.0%$104.53 02/16/2021年$76.33ILMN-26.2%$555.77 02/12/2021年$410.20天狼星XM控股公司SIRI-25.1%$8.14/27/2021年$技术公司MU-24.6%$96.96.04/12/2021$73.10Seagen Inc.Sgen-24.6%$213.94 2020年10月13日$161.40安进-23.3%$276.69 01月28日/2021年$212.27 Moderna-22.8%$497.49 08/10/2021年$384.21高通-22.7%$167.94 01/20/2021年Paccar Inc.$103.19 2021年01月21日$80.82Intel Corp.INTC-21.2%$68.49.04.12/2021年$54.00来源：FactSet
You can click the tickers for more about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore's guide to the wealth of information available for free on the quote page.
您可以单击滚动条了解有关每家公司的更多信息。单击此处查看Tomi Kilgore在报价页面上免费提供的丰富信息指南。
Pinduoduo Inc. and Baidu Inc. top the list, with sharp declines from their 52-week highs.
拼多多和百度集团-SW位居榜首，股价从52周高点大幅回落。
Here's a summary of opinion for the group among analysts polled by FactSet:
以下是FactSet调查的分析师对该集团的看法摘要：
Company Share "buy" ratings Share neutral ratings Share "sell" ratings Closing Price -- Sept. 28 Cons. price target Implied 12-month upside potential Pinduoduo Inc. ADR Class A PDD 79% 21% 0% $89.00 $136.54 35% Baidu Inc. ADR Class A BIDU 86% 9% 5% $154.02 $256.77 40% Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A ZM 52% 44% 4% $261.89 $363.11 28% Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A PTON 74% 19% 7% $87.80 $129.67 32% Biogen Inc. BIIB 52% 48% 0% $284.71 $418.24 32% Splunk Inc. SPLK 62% 38% 0% $139.42 $179.90 22% NetEase Inc. ADR NTES 94% 6% 0% $84.69 $124.99 32% Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. VRTX 74% 19% 7% $181.60 $260.67 30% Trip.com Group Ltd. ADR TCOM 71% 29% 0% $30.01 $37.25 19% Incyte Corp. INCY 60% 40% 0% $68.68 $101.27 32% JD.com Inc. ADR Class A JD 94% 6% 0% $75.42 $93.02 19% Dollar Tree Inc. DLTR 36% 60% 4% $86.28 $105.52 18% Activision Blizzard Inc. ATVI 94% 6% 0% $76.33 $115.34 34% Illumina Inc. ILMN 15% 65% 20% $410.20 $455.19 10% Sirius XM Holdings Inc. SIRI 65% 29% 6% $6.10 $7.60 20% Micron Technology Inc. MU 87% 13% 0% $73.10 $104.60 30% Seagen Inc. SGEN 57% 38% 5% $161.40 $187.35 14% Amgen Inc. AMGN 31% 61% 8% $212.27 $246.10 14% Moderna Inc. MRNA 31% 44% 25% $384.21 $351.40 -9% Qualcomm Inc. QCOM 64% 36% 0% $129.90 $184.15 29% Paccar Inc. PCAR 53% 42% 5% $80.82 $99.56 19% Intel Corp. INTC 37% 39% 24% $54.00 $61.98 13% Source: FactSet
公司股票“买入”评级股票中性评级股票“卖出”评级收盘价-9月1日。28个囚徒。目标价暗示12个月的上行潜力美国存托凭证A类PDD 79%21%0%$89.00$136.54 35%百度A类BIDU 86%9%5%$154.02$256.77 40%Zoom视频通讯A类ZM 52%44%4%$261.89$363.11 28%Peloton Interactive Inc.A类PTON 74%19%7%$87.80$129.67 32%Biogen Inc.BIIB 52%48%0%$284.71$418.24 32%Splunk Inc.SPLK 62%38%0%$139.42$179.90 22%网易ADR NTES 94%6%0%$84.69$124.99 32%Vertex PharmPharmticals Inc.VRTX 74%19%7%$181.60$260.67 30%Adr TCOM 71%29%0%$30.01$37.2519%Incell Corp.INCY 60%40%0%$6868$101.27 32%京东A类美国存托凭证JD 94%6%0%$75.42%93.0219%Dollar Tree Inc.DLTR36%60%4%$86.28$105.52 18%Activision Blizzard Inc.ATVI94%6%0%$76.33$115.34 34%Illumina 15%65%20%$410.20$455.19 10%Sirius XM Holdings Inc.Sirius XM Holdings Inc.$7.6 20%美光科技87%13%0%$73.10$104.60 30%Seagen Inc.Sgen 57%38%5%$161.40$187.35 14%安进AMGN 31%61%8%$212.27$246.10 14%Moderna 31%44%25%$384.21$351.40-9%高通64%36%0%$129.90$184.15 29%PACCARInc.PCAR 53%42%5%$80.82$99.5619%Intel Corp.INTC 37%39%24%$54.00$61.98 13%来源：FactSet
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-Philip van Doorn
--菲利普·范·多恩