share_log

Opinion: Big Tech can't be held down

Opinion: Big Tech can't be held down

观点:大型科技公司是压不住的
Dow Jones Newswires ·  2021/08/22 20:09  · 观点

Over three days in late July, America's tech giants put on an impressive show. $Apple Inc(AAPL.US)$, $Microsoft Corp(MSFT.US)$, $Alphabet Inc-CL A(GOOGL.US)$, $Amazon.Com Inc(AMZN.US)$, and $Facebook Inc(FB.US)$ had thrived in the pandemic, and their latest earnings reports hammered home the point. The five companies generated a combined $332 billion in revenue from April to June, up 36% from a year earlier. All of their profits were better than expected. The twist is that all of their stocks, save for Alphabet's, sold off on the news.

在7月下旬的三天时间里,美国科技巨头们上演了一场令人印象深刻的表演。$苹果(苹果美国)$, $微软(微软美国)$, $Alphabet-CL A(谷歌)$, $亚马逊(AMZN.US)$,及$Facebook(FB.US)$在疫情中蓬勃发展,他们最新的收益报告强调了这一点。从4月到6月,这五家公司总共创造了3,320亿美元的收入,同比增长36%。他们所有的利润都好于预期。转折是,除了Alphabet以外,他们所有的股票都在消息传出后遭到抛售。

The negative reaction reflects the paradox surrounding America's Big Tech complex. Their products are being used more than ever, just as the companies have become increasingly disliked. Regulators and lawmakers -- cheered on by a bipartisan mix of constituents -- are scrutinizing each business and threatening significant actions to curtail their power. Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney estimates that the regulatory scrutiny has already created a 10% drag on large tech stocks.

这种负面反应反映了围绕美国大型科技企业的悖论。他们的产品比以往任何时候都被使用,就像这些公司变得越来越不受欢迎一样。在两党选民的鼓舞下,监管机构和立法者正在仔细审查每一项业务,并威胁要采取重大行动限制它们的权力。Evercore ISI分析师马克·马哈尼估计,监管审查已经对大型科技股造成了10%的拖累。

After thriving during the pandemic, tech companies are facing the challenges posed by a rebounding economy, as businesses and consumers potentially return to old, more analog habits.

在大流行期间蓬勃发展之后,科技公司正面临着经济反弹带来的挑战,因为企业和消费者可能会回归到更类似的旧习惯。

Big Tech has hit a perilous moment. It won't last. The five megacaps still have the best business models on the planet, and their stocks look relatively cheap. Investors should own them all, even if the regulatory headwinds take a while to abate. (See sidebar, "The White House Wants to Reign in Big Tech. Here's How.")

大型科技公司遇到了一个危险的时刻。不会持续很久的。这五大巨头仍然拥有地球上最好的商业模式,它们的股票看起来相对便宜。投资者应该拥有所有这些股票,即使监管逆风需要一段时间才能减弱。(参见侧栏“白宫想要统治大型科技公司。具体方法如下。”)

Taken together, the five tech giants -- the largest companies in the U.S. stock market by a wide margin -- offer a way to invest in the global economy's most important trends: digital transformation and cloud computing, and the future of communication, entertainment, commerce, and work.

总而言之,这五家科技巨头--美国股市中遥遥领先的最大公司--提供了一种投资全球经济最重要趋势的方式:数字转型和云计算,以及通信、娱乐、商业和工作的未来。

The cloud alone could power the growth of Microsoft (ticker: MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL) from here.

单是云计算就可以为微软、亚马逊和Alphabet的增长提供动力。

"Cloud is the reason I own all three of them," says Walter Price, who runs the tech investment team at mutual fund company Allianz Global Investors. "The world's enterprises are shifting computing to the cloud. This will be an annuity that lasts for decades. They can sell so many more things to their customers over time."

共同基金公司安联全球投资者(Allianz Global Investors)科技投资团队负责人沃尔特·普莱斯(Walter Price)表示:“云是我拥有这三家公司的原因。”“世界上的企业正在将计算转向云计算。这将是一种持续数十年的年金。随着时间的推移,他们可以向客户出售如此多的东西。”

Price, who has been running money at Allianz for close to five decades, sees a precedent in IBM (IBM), which came to dominate tech spending in the era of mainframe computing.

普莱斯在安联掌管资金近50年,他看到了IBM的先例,IBM在大型机计算时代主导了科技支出。

The old saying was that you don't get fired for buying IBM. Now, the saying applies to Microsoft, Price says. IBM's recipe was selling more software and more services to more customers. Each of the Big Tech companies are following the same playbook.

老话说,收购IBM不会被炒鱿鱼。现在,这句话适用于微软,普莱斯说。IBM的秘诀是向更多的客户销售更多的软件和服务。每一家大型科技公司都在遵循同样的策略。

There are near-term challenges, to be sure. A postpandemic hangover looks the most obvious at Amazon, where e-commerce is growing more slowly than in the past. Apple's (AAPL) quarantine-fueled hardware boom has slowed. And all of Big Tech's hardware arms are feeling the effects of component shortages and skyrocketing shipping costs. Apple has said that iPhone production could be crimped by parts shortages.

可以肯定的是,短期内存在挑战。延迟性的宿醉在亚马逊看来最为明显,该公司的电子商务增长速度比过去更慢。苹果公司(Apple)以检疫为燃料的硬件热潮已经放缓。大型科技公司的所有硬件部门都感受到了零部件短缺和运输成本飙升的影响。苹果曾表示,iPhone的生产可能会因零部件短缺而受到影响。

Another worry: Big Tech's dominance has some investors seeing a peak in valuations. Apple, which leads the pack with a $2.4 trillion market value; Microsoft ($2.2 trillion); Alphabet ($1.8 trillion); Amazon ($1.6 trillion); and Facebook ($1 trillion) now account for 23.3% of the S&P 500 index's value.

另一个令人担忧的问题是,大型科技公司的主导地位让一些投资者看到了估值的峰值。苹果以2.4万亿美元的市值领跑;微软(2.2万亿美元);Alphabet(1.8万亿美元);亚马逊(1.6万亿美元);Facebook(1万亿美元),现在占标准普尔500指数市值的23.3%。

Then again, skeptics have spent years waiting for the law of large numbers to kick in. At the end of 2019, the Big Tech companies were about 18% of the S&P 500. Since then, each of the stocks has gained at least 70%.

话又说回来,怀疑者多年来一直在等待大数定律生效。截至2019年底,大型科技公司约占标准普尔500指数的18%。自那以来,每只股票都上涨了至少70%。

Big Tech is eating the stock market, but technology is doing the same to the rest of the world -- and the five megacaps remain the best way to play the trend.

大型科技公司正在吞噬股市,但科技公司也在对世界其他地区做同样的事情--而五百万股仍然是把握这一趋势的最佳方式。

Nonetheless, the regulatory overhang is real, even if there are signs that the risks have been priced in. That was one takeaway from a relief rally of 4% in Facebook (FB) stock in June after an antitrust lawsuit from the Federal Trade Commission was thrown out by a federal judge. (The FTC filed an amended version of the lawsuit on Thursday.)

尽管如此,监管过剩是真实存在的,即使有迹象表明风险已被计入价格。今年6月,美国联邦贸易委员会(Federal Trade Commission)提起的反垄断诉讼被一名联邦法官驳回后,Facebook股价出现了4%的宽慰反弹。(联邦贸易委员会于周四提交了诉讼的修订版。)

Tech regulation is gaining steam in Washington, but the courts could hold back the most aggressive efforts. And some investors think that the worst-case scenario -- forced breakups -- could actually unlock value to the benefit of shareholders.

华盛顿的科技监管力度正在加大,但法院可能会阻止最激进的努力。一些投资者认为,最糟糕的情况--被迫拆分--实际上可能会释放价值,让股东受益。

The long-term business trends offset the regulatory risks. Speedy 5G mobile networks are still rolling out, for instance, which will drive strong smartphone sales and more usage of social networks and cloud-based applications.

长期的业务趋势抵消了监管风险。例如,高速的5G移动网络仍在铺开,这将推动智能手机的强劲销售,以及社交网络和基于云的应用的更多使用。

And then there are the wild cards, which investors haven't even begun to price in. All of Big Tech is poised to benefit if Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg's vision of a mixed reality "metaverse" comes to fruition. He sees people working, socializing, and transacting all within an even more expansive internet.

此外还有一些未知因素,投资者甚至还没有开始计入这些因素。如果脸书首席执行官马克·扎克伯格提出的混合现实的“元宇宙”愿景成为现实,那么整个科技巨头都将受益。他认为,人们的工作、社交和交易都在一个更加广阔的互联网中进行。

Apple is weighing an entry into the automobile market, while Alphabet could dominate the future of autonomous cars through its Waymo unit. Amazon and Apple are both taking a stab at healthcare and fitness. Facebook hasn't even tried making money off WhatsApp, its global messaging platform with about two billion users.

苹果正在考虑进入汽车市场,而Alphabet可能通过旗下的Waymo主导自动驾驶汽车的未来。亚马逊和苹果都在医疗保健和健身领域进行尝试。Facebook甚至还没有尝试利用WhatsApp赚钱,WhatsApp是Facebook的全球通讯平台,拥有约20亿用户。

The investment upside applies across Big Tech, but each company has different opportunities and challenges. Here's a closer look at the Big Tech five:

投资的好处适用于整个大型科技公司,但每家公司都有不同的机会和挑战。以下是科技行业五大巨头的详细介绍:

Amazon best illustrates the current risks -- and untapped potential -- of the group. Its stock has been under pressure since late last month, when Amazon said it was seeing a slowdown in e-commerce growth as more people leave home to shop.

亚马逊最好地说明了该集团当前的风险--以及尚未开发的潜力。亚马逊的股价自上月底以来一直承压,当时亚马逊表示,随着越来越多的人离家购物,它的电子商务增长正在放缓。

Amazon is also in the crosshairs of regulators and lawmakers. The FTC is reviewing the company's proposed acquisition of the MGM film studio. The primary question is whether to allow the big to get bigger. Should the agency seek to block the deal, it would signal a shift in how regulators approach tech consolidation. But don't expect a rejection to move Amazon's stock in the long term. MGM films would be a nice addition to Amazon's Prime Video offering, but they won't move the needle on the company's bottom line.

亚马逊也是监管机构和立法者的靶子。联邦贸易委员会正在审查该公司收购米高梅电影制片厂的提议。首要问题是是否允许大公司变得更大。如果该机构寻求阻止这笔交易,这将标志着监管机构对待科技整合的方式发生了转变。但从长远来看,不要指望亚马逊的拒绝会影响亚马逊的股价。米高梅电影将是亚马逊Prime Video服务的一个很好的补充,但它们不会改变公司的利润。

In testifying to Congress last year, Amazon's founder and then-CEO Jeff Bezos said, "I believe Amazon should be scrutinized. We should scrutinize all large institutions, whether they're companies, government agencies, or nonprofits. Our responsibility is to make sure we pass such scrutiny with flying colors."

去年,亚马逊创始人、时任首席执行官杰夫·贝佐斯在国会作证时表示:“我认为亚马逊应该受到审查。我们应该审查所有大型机构,无论它们是公司、政府机构还是非营利组织。我们的责任是确保我们出色地通过审查。”

That said, investors could miss the big picture by focusing on Amazon's battles with regulators. The company offers an opportunity to invest in three of the most important elements of the current economy: online commerce, cloud computing, and transportation logistics. Amazon also has a growing advertising business, and big ambitions in healthcare and bricks-and-mortar retail. This past week, The Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon is planning to open department-store-style retail outlets.

话虽如此,如果投资者把注意力放在亚马逊与监管机构之间的斗争上,可能会偏离对大局的预期。该公司提供了一个投资当前经济中最重要的三个元素的机会:在线商务、云计算和运输物流。亚马逊还拥有不断增长的广告业务,并在医疗保健和实体零售领域雄心勃勃。上周,《华尔街日报》报道称,亚马逊正计划开设百货商店式的零售店。

Even with a $1.6 trillion current market valuation, Amazon might be a bargain based on its cloud business alone. Growth at Amazon Web Services is accelerating, and revenue from the unit could hit an annualized $100 billion by 2023. Valuing that business at, say, 15 times sales (most cloud application companies fetch higher valuations than that), gives you a market cap of $1.5 trillion, meaning that investors are getting Amazon's e-commerce business and its nascent advertising business almost for free.

即使亚马逊目前的市值为1.6万亿美元,单从其云业务来看,也可能是一笔划算的交易。亚马逊网络服务的增长正在加速,到2023年,该部门的年化收入可能达到1000亿美元。比如说,将这项业务的估值定为销售额的15倍(大多数云应用程序公司的估值高于这个数字),你的市值将达到1.5万亿美元,这意味着投资者几乎免费获得了亚马逊的电子商务业务及其新生的广告业务。

Amazon stock has been basically flat for a year. At some point, investors will do the math.

亚马逊股票一年来基本持平。总有一天,投资者会算算的。

The iPhone maker's shares have doubled since the end of 2019, increasing the company's market capitalization by more than $1 trillion. Apple grew sales 36% in its latest quarter, following 54% growth in the March quarter -- the company's two best quarters since 2012.

自2019年底以来,这家iPhone制造商的股价翻了一番,使公司市值增加了超过1万亿美元。苹果在最近一个季度的销售额增长了36%,而3月份的季度销售额增长了54%,这是该公司自2012年以来表现最好的两个季度。

Apple, meanwhile, is more diverse than ever. While the latest iPhone 12 is a hit, with sales up almost 50% in the latest quarter, everything else is working, too. The company continues to see double-digit growth for its Macs, iPads, and wearables businesses. Apple's services segment grew 33% in the latest quarter. All told, the iPhone is now about 50% of Apple sales, down from 66% in 2015.

与此同时,苹果比以往任何时候都更加多样化。虽然最新的iPhone12大受欢迎,最近一个季度的销售额增长了近50%,但其他一切也都很正常。该公司的Mac、iPad和可穿戴设备业务继续以两位数的速度增长。苹果的服务部门在最近一个季度增长了33%。总体而言,iPhone目前约占苹果销售额的50%,低于2015年的66%。

There are near-term headwinds, however. A few weeks from now, Apple will unveil its follow-up to the iPhone 12. The upgrades are expected to be modest, and Apple has already warned that it could have trouble meeting demand because of worsening component shortages.

然而,短期内也存在一些不利因素。几周后,苹果将发布iPhone 12的后续产品。预计升级幅度不会太大,苹果已经警告称,由于日益严重的零部件短缺,它可能难以满足需求。

Among the Big Tech group, Apple could face the most immediate regulatory risk, given growing complaints about its hefty 30% commission rate on sales in its App Store. Epic Games sued Apple over the issue -- a decision on the case is pending -- and the situation has received attention in Washington. In July, three dozen state attorneys general sued Alphabet over the fees charged by its Google Play store, and a parallel action against Apple seems inevitable.

在科技巨头集团中,苹果可能面临最直接的监管风险,因为越来越多的人抱怨苹果应用商店的销售佣金高达30%。Epic游戏公司就这一问题起诉了苹果公司,该案还在等待裁决,这一事件已经引起了华盛顿的关注。今年7月,30多个州的总检察长起诉Alphabet,指控其在谷歌Play商店收取费用,而针对苹果的类似诉讼似乎不可避免。

In defending the App Store to lawmakers last year, Apple CEO Tim Cook said, "For the vast majority of apps, developers keep 100% of the money they make. The only apps that are subject to a commission are those where the developer acquires a customer on an Apple device and where the features or services would be experienced and consumed on an Apple device."

去年,苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克在为苹果应用商店向立法者辩护时说:“对于绝大多数应用来说,开发者100%地保留他们赚到的钱。只有那些开发者在苹果设备上获得客户,并在苹果设备上体验和消费这些功能或服务的应用,才需要收取佣金。”

App tracker Sensor Tower, estimates that Apple generated commissions of $21.7 billion from the App Store in 2020, or about 8% of its annual revenue. Even if Apple is forced to cut its 30% commission in half, the hit would be less than 5% of Apple's total revenue.

App Track Sensor Tower估计,苹果在2020年从App Store获得了217亿美元的佣金,约占其年收入的8%。即使苹果被迫将其30%的佣金削减一半,其影响也不到苹果总收入的5%。

Gene Munster, managing partner at the investment firm Loup Ventures, is bullish on the whole set of tech megacaps, but he has a particular preference for Apple, a company he once covered as an analyst at Piper Jaffray. He concedes that Apple is headed for a step down in growth but thinks that Wall Street is too negative. He sees Apple still growing sales 10% in its upcoming 2022 fiscal year, versus a 3.4% forecast from analysts.-

投资公司Loup Ventures的管理合伙人吉恩·蒙斯特看好一整套科技巨头,但他特别偏爱苹果,他曾在Piper Jaffray担任分析师时追踪这家公司。他承认,苹果的增长正在放缓,但他认为华尔街过于悲观。他预计,苹果在即将到来的2022财年的销售额仍将增长10%,而分析师的预测为3.4%。

The wild card for Apple investors is the possibility that the company jumps into making cars. Munster puts the chances at less than 50%, but says that if it happens, it would be a "measurable multiple expander" for the stock. Apple currently trades at 26 times earnings estimates for the next 12 months; Tesla (TSLA) fetches an earnings multiple north of 100.

苹果投资者面临的不确定因素是,该公司可能会跳入汽车制造行业。明斯特认为这种可能性不到50%,但他表示,如果发生这种情况,对该股来说将是一个可衡量的倍数扩张器。苹果目前的市盈率为26倍,而特斯拉(Tesla)的市盈率则超过了100倍。

Microsoft has thrived in the pandemic era, as more companies adopted digital processes to ensure their survival in a world of shuttered offices and limited travel. The surge in PC demand triggered by the work-from-home trend has boosted the Windows business, lifted sales of Microsoft's Surface line of tablets and laptops, and buoyed demand for its Xbox videogame consoles. The company has even seen a pickup in ad revenue, thanks to both the company's Bing search engine and growth on LinkedIn, which, as of the latest quarter, is generating revenue at an annualized rate of more than $10 billion.

微软在大流行时代蓬勃发展,因为越来越多的公司采用数字流程,以确保自己在办公室关门和旅行受限的世界中生存。在家工作的趋势引发的个人电脑需求激增提振了Windows业务,提振了微软Surface平板电脑和笔记本电脑的销售,并提振了对Xbox视频游戏机的需求。该公司的广告收入甚至出现了回升,这要归功于公司的必应搜索引擎和LinkedIn的增长。截至最近一个季度,LinkedIn的年化收入超过100亿美元。

But the core driver has been the growth of the company's Azure cloud business -- sales were up 51% in the latest quarter -- and accelerating adoption of cloud-based versions of Microsoft's software, including Office and its communications suite called Teams.

但最核心的驱动力是微软Azure云业务的增长--最近一个季度销售额增长了51%--以及微软软件基于云的版本的加速采用,包括Office及其名为Team的通信套件。

"I shudder to think what the world would have been like if it were not for digital technology and the cloud and collaboration platforms like Teams," said Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella in a recent Barron's interview. "Even five or 10 years ago, I think we would have been in deep trouble."

微软首席执行官萨蒂亚·纳德拉最近在接受巴伦采访时表示:“如果没有数字技术、云和团队等协作平台,世界会是什么样子,我不寒而栗。”“即使在5年或10年前,我认为我们也会陷入深深的麻烦之中。”

Microsoft's revenue grew 18% for the June 2021 fiscal year, and the company projects "healthy" double-digit revenue growth for fiscal 2022. But that steady growth does not come cheap. Microsoft has a market value of $2.2 trillion, which makes it the world's largest company after Apple. And it trades for 33 times earnings estimates for the next 12 months, making it the most expensive name in Big Tech relative to growth.

微软在2021财年6月的营收增长了18%,该公司预计2022财年营收将实现“健康”的两位数增长。但这种稳定的增长并不便宜。微软的市值为2.2万亿美元,这使其成为仅次于苹果的全球最大公司。它的股价是未来12个月预期收益的33倍,使其成为相对于增长而言最昂贵的大型科技公司。

But for risk-averse investors, Microsoft is also the least vulnerable to regulation. Once the primary target of antitrust regulators, the company has been largely left out of the current regulatory debate.

但对于厌恶风险的投资者来说,微软也是最不容易受到监管影响的。该公司曾是反垄断监管机构的主要目标,但在很大程度上被排除在当前的监管辩论之外。

The opportunity in online advertising, the primary domain of Alphabet (and Facebook), might get less attention than the cloud and smartphones, but it is no less compelling. In the recent June quarter, Alphabet's ad sales grew 69%.

在线广告是Alphabet(和脸书)的主要领域,在线广告的机会可能没有云和智能手机那么受关注,但它的吸引力并不亚于云。在最近的6月份这个季度,Alphabet的广告销售额增长了69%。

YouTube's ad revenue soared 84%, to $7 billion, in the second quarter, putting the business on par with Netflix (NFLX), which reported quarterly revenue of $7.3 billion. Netflix is expected to grow sales by 19%, to $29.7 billion this year, while YouTube's ad revenue is forecast to rise 45%, to $28.7 billion.

YouTube的广告收入在第二季度飙升了84%,达到70亿美元,与网飞公司(Netflix)持平,后者公布的季度收入为73亿美元。预计Netflix今年的销售额将增长19%,至297亿美元,而YouTube的广告收入预计将增长45%,至287亿美元。

Alphabet's growth isn't fully appreciated. Alphabet's Class A shares fetch an inexpensive 26 times forward earnings.

新浪Alphabet的增长并未得到充分认可。Alphabet A类股的预期市盈率为26倍,并不算贵。

"You're paying a market multiple for the core Google ad-services business, and then you're getting the cloud and all the other bets for free," says Mitch Rubin, chief investment officer at RiverPark Funds.

RiverPark Funds首席投资官米奇·鲁宾(Mitch Rubin)表示:“你为谷歌核心的广告服务业务支付了市盈率,然后你就免费获得了云服务和所有其他押注。”

Some of the other bets could soon come in focus. The company started breaking out results for its cloud computing unit last year. In the recent quarter, it slashed operating losses for the cloud by more than half. While rivals Amazon and Microsoft remain fierce competitors, Alphabet has a mix of artificial intelligence and machine learning that will be key to driving Wall Street's forecasted cloud growth of 51% this year.

其他一些押注可能很快就会成为焦点。该公司去年开始公布其云计算部门的业绩。在最近一个季度,它将云计算的运营亏损削减了一半以上。虽然竞争对手亚马逊和微软仍然是激烈的竞争对手,但Alphabet将人工智能和机器学习结合在一起,这将是推动华尔街今年云计算增长51%的关键。

The core business -- search advertising -- is doing just fine meanwhile. Google remains the world's largest seller of advertising, and YouTube accounts for just roughly 11% of revenue.

与此同时,其核心业务--搜索广告--的表现也不错。谷歌仍然是世界上最大的广告销售商,YouTube仅占其收入的11%左右。

Google represents more than 90% of internet search visits in the U.S., and its clear dominance there makes it an obvious target for regulators.

谷歌占美国互联网搜索访问量的90%以上,其在该市场的明显主导地位使其成为监管机构的明显目标。

Alphabet is facing antitrust litigation from the Department of Justice and multiple state attorneys general over alleged monopolistic practices in search advertising -- a threat to the company's oldest-running moneymaker.

Alphabet正面临美国司法部和多个州总检察长的反垄断诉讼,原因是该公司涉嫌在搜索广告领域存在垄断行为,这对该公司历史最悠久的摇钱树构成威胁。

Alphabet called the lawsuits misleading, flawed, and dubious, and vowed to defend itself in court.

Alphabet称这些诉讼具有误导性、缺陷和可疑之处,并誓言要在法庭上为自己辩护。

Facebook generates the most controversy of the Big Tech firms. In recent weeks, the social networking giant has drawn the ire of the White House over its treatment of Covid-19 vaccine misinformation, and some lawmakers have spoken out about what they perceive to be violations of their free speech. Through it all, though, Facebook has remained a compelling stock, an opportunity that Barron's highlighted in an April cover story.

Facebook是大型科技公司中争议最大的。最近几周,这家社交网络巨头因其对新冠肺炎疫苗虚假信息的处理引发了白宫的愤怒,一些议员公开表示,他们认为这是对他们言论自由的侵犯。尽管如此,Facebook仍然是一只引人注目的股票,巴伦在4月份的一篇封面故事中强调了这一机会。

Even after a 30% gain this year, Facebook shares trade at just 23 times forward earnings, making it the cheapest of the Big Tech stocks and just a bit more pricey than the S&P 500, even though Facebook remains in clear growth mode.

即使在今年上涨了30%之后,Facebook的预期市盈率也只有23倍,是大型科技股中最便宜的,略高于标准普尔500指数,尽管Facebook仍处于明显的增长模式。

"For an asset that can grow earnings over the next three years at something close to 30%, I think that's highly attractive," says Evercore's Mahaney. "There is a lot of valuation support for where the stock is now."

Evercore的马哈尼表示:“对于一项能够在未来三年实现近30%的收益增长的资产来说,我认为这是非常有吸引力的。”“对该股目前的估值水平有很大的支持。”

One area that gets overlooked by investors is Facebook's growing focus on commerce. Facebook now has 1.2 million active shops, where small and medium-size businesses can tap Facebook's enormous social network to sell their wares.

一个被投资者忽视的领域是Facebook对商务的日益关注。Facebook现在有120万家活跃的商店,中小型企业可以在这些商店里利用Facebook巨大的社交网络来销售他们的商品。

Shopify (SHOP), which provides similar e-commerce tools to businesses, is valued at $183 billion. That is the kind of value that could accrue to Facebook over time.

为企业提供类似电子商务工具的Shopify(商店)估值为1,830亿美元。随着时间的推移,这是Facebook可能会积累的那种价值。

And seven years after buying WhatsApp, Facebook has turned the service into a global phenomenon. The company is slowly adding payment transfers to the app, making it a potential rival to PayPal Holdings' (PYPL) Venmo.

在收购WhatsApp七年后,Facebook已经将这项服务变成了一种全球现象。该公司正在慢慢地将转账功能添加到这款应用中,使其成为贝宝控股(PayPal Holdings)旗下的Venmo的潜在竞争对手。

There could be near-term hiccups, though. Facebook's ever-conservative chief financial officer, David Wehner, has warned investors that revenue growth will slow modestly for the rest of the year, even when compared with the pre-Covid, 2019 numbers.

不过,短期内可能会出现一些小问题。Facebook一向保守的首席财务官大卫·韦纳警告投资者,今年剩余时间的收入增长将略有放缓,即使与2019年Covid之前的数字相比也是如此。

Privacy changes from Apple have complicated ad targeting on some of Facebook's mobile apps. The company has suggested that its third-quarter results could be affected by the changes.

苹果对隐私的改变使Facebook的一些移动应用上的广告投放变得更加复杂。该公司表示,其第三季度业绩可能会受到这些变化的影响。

Then there's the potential regulation. A Facebook spokesman called the FTC's revised lawsuit against the company "meritless," saying that "the FTC's claims are an effort to rewrite antitrust laws and upend settled expectations of merger review, declaring to the business community that no sale is ever final."

然后是潜在的监管。Facebook的一位发言人称,联邦贸易委员会修改后对该公司的诉讼是“毫无根据的”,称“联邦贸易委员会的指控是为了重写反垄断法,颠覆对合并审查的既定预期,并向商界宣布,没有任何出售是最终的。”

So far, the agency's efforts have just highlighted the high bar facing regulators.

到目前为止,该机构的努力只是突显了监管机构面临的高门槛。

In dismissing the FTC's initial lawsuit against Facebook, Judge James Boasberg of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia wrote, "It is almost as if the agency expects the court to simply nod to the conventional wisdom that Facebook is a monopolist."

在驳回联邦贸易委员会最初对Facebook提起的诉讼时,美国哥伦比亚特区地区法院的法官詹姆斯·博斯伯格写道:“这几乎就像是该机构希望法院只是简单地点头接受Facebook是垄断者的传统智慧。”

Investors have done well by ignoring such conventional wisdom. Since Barron's first highlighted the regulatory threat for Big Tech in an October 2017 cover story, the five stocks have returned an average of 218%, versus 84% for the S&P 500.

投资者无视这些传统智慧,做得很好。自巴伦在2017年10月的一篇封面故事中首次强调监管对大型科技公司的威胁以来,这五只股票的平均回报率为218%,而标准普尔500指数的回报率为84%。

Investors will probably see continued gains from the stocks, even as regulators work overtime to make their case against Big Tech.

投资者可能会看到这些股票继续上涨,尽管监管机构正在加班加点地对大型科技公司提起诉讼。

Write to Eric J. Savitz at eric.savitz@barrons.com and Max A. Cherney at max.cherney@barrons.com

写信给埃里克·J·萨维茨(eric.savitz@Barrons.com)和马克斯·A·切尔尼(Max A.Cherney)

To subscribe to Barron's, visit http://www.barrons.com/subscribe

欲订阅巴伦百货,请访问http://www.barrons.com/subscribe

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

(完)道琼通讯社

August 20, 2021 21:31 ET (01:31 GMT)

2021年8月20日21:31东部时间(格林尼治标准时间01:31)

Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

版权所有(C)2021道琼斯公司。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
    抢沙发