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Why this top-performing fund calls Facebook 'a screaming value'

Why this top-performing fund calls Facebook 'a screaming value'

为什么这只表现最好的基金称Facebook为“尖叫的价值”
Dow Jones Newswires ·  2021/08/18 08:45

By Sarah Max

作者:莎拉·马克斯

Rafe Resendes has one investing pet peeve. Investors often conflate the terms "value" and "valuation," but the distinction between the two makes all the difference between investing in stocks that are simply cheap and identifying companies that are trading below their intrinsic value.

雷夫·雷森德斯有一个投资方面的烦恼。投资者经常把“价值”和“估值”这两个词混为一谈,但这两个词之间的区别,决定了投资于简单便宜的股票和识别股价低于其内在价值的公司之间的差别。

That's the short explanation for what distinguishes the $294 million Applied Finance Select Fund (ticker: AFVLX) from most large value funds -- and why the nearly five-year-old fund has returned an average of more than 16.7% a year over the past three years, better than 96% of its peers, and 4.8 percentage points a year better than the Russell 1000 Value index.

这就是对2.94亿美元区别的简短解释应用金融精选基金(股票代码:AFVLX)这也是为什么这家成立近五年的基金在过去三年里的年均回报率超过16.7%,超过96%的同行,比罗素1000价值指数(Russell 1000 Value Index)高出4.8个百分点。

It also helps explain why seemingly expensive stocks like $Apple Inc(AAPL.US)$, $Alphabet Inc-CL A(GOOGL.US)$, and $MasterCard Inc(MA.US)$ are among its largest holdings -- and why Resendes thinks $Facebook Inc(FB.US)$ is a "screaming value" despite its high price/earnings multiple. "This stock is priced as if it will have negative 5% sales growth going forward, and to me that just seems insane, " he says. "They haven't even begun to monetize WhatsApp and Oculus," which makes virtual-reality headsets.

这也有助于解释为什么看似昂贵的股票会像$苹果(苹果美国)$, $Alphabet-CL A(谷歌)$,及$万事达(MA.US)$都是其最大的持有量之一--这也是为什么Resendes认为$Facebook(FB.US)$尽管它的市盈率很高,但它的价值令人惊叹。他说:“这只股票的定价就好像它未来的销售额将出现5%的负增长,在我看来,这简直是疯了。”“他们甚至还没有开始将WhatsApp和Oculus货币化,”该公司生产虚拟现实耳机。

Resendes, 56, has always been comfortable going against the grain. The son of immigrants was born in a small town in Oregon after his parents, a lawyer and a school administrator, fled Cuba after the revolution, eventually settling in California's Central Valley. After studying finance at the University of California, Berkeley, Resendes headed to business school at the University of Chicago, where he met his classmate and future business partner, Daniel Obrycki.

现年56岁的雷森德斯一直对与谷物背道而驰感到舒服。这位移民的儿子出生在俄勒冈州的一个小镇上,他的父母--律师和学校管理人员--在古巴革命后逃离古巴,最终定居在加利福尼亚州的中央山谷。在加州大学伯克利分校学习金融专业后,雷森德斯前往芝加哥大学商学院,在那里他遇到了他的同学和未来的商业伙伴丹尼尔·奥布里奇。

In 1995, the duo started Applied Finance with the goal of creating a better model for measuring companies' economic performance. They initially operated as a capital-advisory firm that worked behind the scenes to help large companies understand the economics of complex transactions, capital investments, and compensation plans. As independent consultants at Arthur Andersen, they helped General Motors set cost-of-capital hurdle rates globally and created an internal stock market within DaimlerChrysler to value its more than 100 divisions.

1995年,两人创立了应用金融,目标是创建一种更好的衡量公司经济表现的模型。他们最初是作为一家资本咨询公司运营的,在幕后帮助大公司了解复杂交易、资本投资和薪酬计划的经济学。作为安达信的独立顾问,他们帮助通用汽车在全球设定资本成本门槛利率,并在戴姆勒-克莱斯勒内部创建了一个内部股票市场,以对其100多个部门进行估值。

Resendes and Obrycki eventually pivoted their business to investment research and quickly gained a following among fund managers, hedge funds, banks, and other institutional clients. In 2004, they created a model portfolio of 50 large-cap stocks trading below their intrinsic value and run by management teams with track records for compounding wealth.

Resendes和Obrycki最终将业务重心转向投资研究,并迅速在基金经理、对冲基金、银行和其他机构客户中获得了追随者。2004年,他们创建了一个由50只市值低于内在价值的大盘股组成的投资组合模型,由拥有复利财富记录的管理团队管理。

That was the basis of the Applied Finance Select fund, which launched in early 2017 and has an expense ratio of 1%. The fund, which is sector-neutral, always owns 50 stocks, which the Resendes and his team identify based on quantitative factors -- namely, intrinsic-value rankings within each sector -- and fundamental research.

这是应用金融精选基金的基础,该基金于2017年初推出,费用比率为1%。该基金不分行业,一直持有50只股票,Resendes和他的团队根据量化因素(即每个行业的内在价值排名)和基本面研究来确定这些股票。

One of the key inputs of their intrinsic-value ranking is what they call "economic margin," or the difference between a company's return on capital relative to its cost of capital. Most quantitative-value models don't properly account for the relationship between company investments -- such as in research and development, or technology -- and long-term profitability, says Resendes. A better way to measure intrinsic value, he says, is to ask whether management is creating or destroying value, and to what degree.

他们内在价值排名的关键输入之一是他们所说的“经济边际”,即一家公司的资本回报率与资本成本之间的差额。雷森德斯说,大多数量化价值模型没有恰当地考虑到公司投资--如研发或技术投资--与长期盈利能力之间的关系。他表示,衡量内在价值的更好方法是询问管理层是在创造价值还是在破坏价值,以及在多大程度上创造了价值。

For example, in 2011 the team added Google's parent company, Alphabet, to the model portfolio when it was trading at an above-average P/E ratio -- but their intrinsic value estimate suggested the stock was undervalued. Shares have since increased more than 900%, but Resendes argues the stock is still undervalued, offering more than 13% upside.

例如,2011年,当谷歌的市盈率高于平均水平时,该团队将谷歌的母公司Alphabet纳入了模型投资组合,但对其内在价值的估计表明该股被低估了。自那以来,该公司股价上涨了900%以上,但雷森德斯认为,该股仍被低估,涨幅超过13%。

"Our goal since the beginning has been to answer two questions: What's a firm's economic performance, and what is the firm worth?" says Resendes, whose own employee-owned firm is based in Chicago, though most of its staff began working remotely well before the pandemic.

从一开始,我们的目标就是回答两个问题:一家公司的经济表现如何,这家公司的价值是什么?Resendes说,他自己的员工所有的公司总部设在芝加哥,尽管大多数员工在疫情爆发前就开始远程工作了。

Broadly speaking, Resendes doesn't think the market is as pricey as many investors -- and especially value investors -- insist. "If we were to look at the intrinsic value of every stock in, say, the Russell 3000 and compare it against where the market is trading, we would say the market is toward the expensive side, but certainly not to the point that we would be making drastic portfolio changes," he says.

总的来说,Resendes并不认为股市像许多投资者--尤其是价值投资者--坚称的那样昂贵。他说:“如果我们考察罗素3000指数中每一只股票的内在价值,并将其与市场目前的交易水平进行比较,我们会说市场倾向于价格较高的一方,但肯定不会到我们会做出重大投资组合调整的地步。”

The fund's turnover is incredibly low. Seven of its top 10 holdings have been in the fund since inception. When the team makes that rare decision to sell, it's typically because a stock's intrinsic-value ranking falls below the 50th percentile for its sector. (This alone won't automatically trigger a sell; the analyst covering the stock also weighs in.)

该基金的营业额低得令人难以置信。自该基金成立以来,其最大的10个持有量中有7个一直在该基金中。当团队做出这种罕见的抛售决定时,通常是因为一只股票的内在价值排名低于其所在行业的第50个百分位数。(单凭这一点并不会自动引发抛售;跟踪这只股票的分析师也会参与进来。)

In August 2020, for example, the team made the call to sell longtime holding Nvidia (NVDA), which they added to their model portfolio in 2011 when the stock traded at about a split-adjusted $3.50 a share. "We still think Nvidia still has a great future, but the expectations built into it became too rich for us," he says. They sold the stock when it traded around a split-adjusted $132, versus $129 for their intrinsic-value estimate at the time.

例如,在2020年8月,该团队呼吁出售长期持有的英伟达(NVDA),2011年,当NVDA的股价经拆分调整后约为每股3.50美元时,他们将其添加到他们的模型投资组合中。“我们仍然认为NVIDIA仍有一个美好的未来,但对它的期望对我们来说太多了,”他说。当该股经拆分调整后在132美元左右交易时,他们卖出了这只股票,而当时他们的内在价值估计为129美元。

In its place they added semiconductor equipment supplier KLA (KLAC). "Thinking about the Gold Rush days of California, if Nvidia, Intel [INTC], and Texas Instruments [TXN] are the gold miners, KLA would be Levi's," he says. At the time its shares traded around $208, and its intrinsic value suggested it was worth $271. The stock recently traded around $320, but KLA's intrinsic value has also increased, putting fair valuation at $420, as the company pairs equipment sales with consulting services that provide high recurring revenue.

取而代之的是半导体设备供应商KLA(KLAC)。想一想加州的淘金热时代,如果英伟达、英特尔[INTC]、和德州仪器[TXN]如果是金矿公司,KLA就是Levi‘s,“他说。当时,KLA的股票交易价格约为208美元,其内在价值相当于271美元。该公司股票最近的交易价格约为320美元,但KLA的内在价值也有所上升,合理估值为420美元,因为该公司将设备销售与提供高经常性收入的咨询服务相结合。

It's a similar story with auto-parts maker Aptiv (APTV), which the fund bought in early 2018. Here, too, the stock has gone up, but it trades at a 20% discount to intrinsic value. "We don't know who will ultimately emerge as winners in the electric-vehicle market, but regardless, we believe Aptiv provides a relatively high-return, low-risk way to invest in the EV transformation of the global auto industry," Resendes says.

2018年初被该基金收购的汽车零部件制造商Aptiv也是如此。在这里,股票也上涨了,但它的交易价格比内在价值低20%。“我们不知道谁最终会成为电动汽车市场的赢家,但无论如何,我们相信Aptiv为全球汽车行业的电动汽车转型提供了一种相对高回报、低风险的投资方式,”雷森德斯说。

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August 18, 2021 04:14 ET (08:14 GMT)

2021年8月18日东部时间04:14(格林尼治标准时间08:14)

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