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Option Montage: There's still a drawdown risk across the board
Option Montage: There's still a drawdown risk across the board
By Eli, Rachel
Same old story out there on Wednesday, buy re-opening, sell high growth/tech. Institutional sweepers continue to plow into inflation/reflation leaders, while the bulk of the put buying remains focused on ETFs and growth.
$United Airlines Holdings Inc(UAL.US)$, $Las Vegas Sands Corp(LVS.US)$, $Boeing Co(BA.US)$, $Exxon Mobil Corp(XOM.US)$, $ONEOK Inc(OKE.US)$, financials and travel leaders have been absolutely tattooed over the past couple of weeks.
On the sentiment front
Recent volatility hasn't had a noteworthy impact on intermediate-term sentiment yet but the selling has been in just half of the market so far.
Hedge Fund Exposure source: sentimentrader
Hedge funds spit up a bit, trimming some of their recent long exposure after getting a bit more aggressive buying into this recent dip.
Institutions are still primarily focused on this "re-opening" theme but continue to plow into the leaders for the most part. There has been some recent activity in underbelly commodity plays like $Teck Resources Ltd(TECK.US)$ and $Amyris Inc(AMRS.US)$ yesterday but we haven't seen many fresh names, the most aggressive aspect of the flow has been in the more well-known cyclical plays.
That will change, eventually, there's still a potential drawdown risk across the board here because the more they hammer growth, the higher the odds they'll need to sell winners as well to meet margin calls. Our best entry for swing positions will likely come off the selling where everything is highly correlated. In other words, when everything finally pulls back together with the indices and there's nowhere to hide, this phase can come to an end.
But when will that come? NO CLUE, for now, a tactical strategy remains the way to go, they are not really showing much excitement in growth yet, selectively dabbling for just a bounce.
Notable bettings toward broader market indices ETF on 3/3
Market-wide option volume of 43.3m contracts was in line with recent average levels, with calls leading puts 13 to 8. ETF and single stock products saw relatively heavy volume, while index flow was moderate.
Individuals breakdown by sectors (3/3 notable bets)
Most active sectors included Financials, Industrials and Consumer Cyclicals while Health Care and Utilities were relatively light. Of the 3,814 stocks with listed options, 1,596 (42%) closed higher, and 2,124 (56%) lower. Among the 500 most liquid single stocks, 30day implied volatility was higher for 333 and lower for 107. Unusual total option volume was observed in $Bank of America Corporation(BAC.US)$, $Rocket Companies Inc(RKT.US)$, $SOS Ltd(SOS.US)$, $UWM HLDGS CORP(UWMC.US)$ and $Boeing Co(BA.US)$.
Tech
Industrial
Consumer Cyclical
Financial
Communication Services
Healthcare
Energy
Real Estate
Basic materials
Consumer Defensive
By Eli, Rachel
作者:伊莱,雷切尔
Same old story out there on Wednesday, buy re-opening, sell high growth/tech. Institutional sweepers continue to plow into inflation/reflation leaders, while the bulk of the put buying remains focused on ETFs and growth.
周三,同样的老生常谈,买入重新开盘,卖出高增长/科技股。机构投资者继续买入通胀/通货再膨胀领头羊,而看跌期权的大部分买入仍聚焦于ETF和增长。
$United Airlines Holdings Inc(UAL.US)$, $Las Vegas Sands Corp(LVS.US)$, $Boeing Co(BA.US)$, $Exxon Mobil Corp(XOM.US)$, $ONEOK Inc(OKE.US)$, financials and travel leaders have been absolutely tattooed over the past couple of weeks.
$联合航空控股公司(UAL.US)$, $拉斯维加斯金沙集团(拉斯维加斯金沙集团)$, $波音(BA.US)$, $埃克森美孚(XOM.US)$, $ONEOK Inc.(OKE.US)$在过去的几周里,金融和旅游领袖都被纹上了纹身。
On the sentiment front
在情绪方面
Recent volatility hasn't had a noteworthy impact on intermediate-term sentiment yet but the selling has been in just half of the market so far.
近期的波动尚未对中期市场人气产生明显影响,但到目前为止,抛售仅占市场的一半。
Hedge Fund Exposure source: sentimentrader
对冲基金曝险来源:SentimenTrader
Hedge funds spit up a bit, trimming some of their recent long exposure after getting a bit more aggressive buying into this recent dip.
对冲基金略微增加了一些,在最近的下跌中进行了更积极的买入后,削减了一些最近的多头敞口。
Institutions are still primarily focused on this "re-opening" theme but continue to plow into the leaders for the most part. There has been some recent activity in underbelly commodity plays like $Teck Resources Ltd(TECK.US)$ and $Amyris Inc(AMRS.US)$ yesterday but we haven't seen many fresh names, the most aggressive aspect of the flow has been in the more well-known cyclical plays.
金融机构仍主要关注这一“重新开放”的主题,但在很大程度上仍在继续向领导人发起攻势。最近,大宗商品领域出现了一些活跃的现象,比如$Teck Resources Ltd(TECK.US)$和$Amyris Inc.(AMRS.US)$但我们昨天没有看到很多新名字,最具侵略性的方面是在更知名的周期性比赛中。
That will change, eventually, there's still a potential drawdown risk across the board here because the more they hammer growth, the higher the odds they'll need to sell winners as well to meet margin calls. Our best entry for swing positions will likely come off the selling where everything is highly correlated. In other words, when everything finally pulls back together with the indices and there's nowhere to hide, this phase can come to an end.
这种情况将会改变,最终,这里仍然存在潜在的全面缩水风险,因为他们越猛烈地打击增长,他们需要出售赢家以满足追加保证金要求的几率就越高。我们最好的摇摆头寸可能会从抛售中脱手,因为一切都高度相关。换句话说,当一切最终与指数一起拉回到一起,没有地方可藏时,这个阶段就可以结束了。
But when will that come? NO CLUE, for now, a tactical strategy remains the way to go, they are not really showing much excitement in growth yet, selectively dabbling for just a bounce.
但那会在什么时候到来呢?没有线索,就目前而言,战术战略仍然是前进的方向,他们还没有真正表现出对增长的兴奋,有选择地涉足仅仅是反弹。
Notable bettings toward broader market indices ETF on 3/3
3/3对大盘指数ETF的值得注意的押注
Market-wide option volume of 43.3m contracts was in line with recent average levels, with calls leading puts 13 to 8. ETF and single stock products saw relatively heavy volume, while index flow was moderate.
全市场的期权成交量为4330万份,与近期的平均水平一致,看跌期权的数量为13份至8份。ETF和单一股票产品的成交量相对较大,而指数成交量不大。
Individuals breakdown by sectors (3/3 notable bets)
按行业细分的个人(3/3值得注意的赌注)
Most active sectors included Financials, Industrials and Consumer Cyclicals while Health Care and Utilities were relatively light. Of the 3,814 stocks with listed options, 1,596 (42%) closed higher, and 2,124 (56%) lower. Among the 500 most liquid single stocks, 30day implied volatility was higher for 333 and lower for 107. Unusual total option volume was observed in $Bank of America Corporation(BAC.US)$, $Rocket Companies Inc(RKT.US)$, $SOS Ltd(SOS.US)$, $UWM HLDGS CORP(UWMC.US)$ and $Boeing Co(BA.US)$.
最活跃的板块包括金融、工业和消费周期类股,而医疗保健和公用事业板块相对较少。在3,814只有期权上市的股票中,1,596只(42%)收盘上涨,2,124只(56%)下跌。在流动性最强的500只单一股票中,30天隐含波动率较高的有333只,较低的有107只。观察到异常的期权总成交量$美国银行(美国银行)$, $Rocket Companies Inc.(RKT.US)$, $SOS有限公司(SOS.US)$, $UWM Hldgs Corp(UWMC.US)$和$波音(BA.US)$.
Tech
高科技
Industrial
工业
Consumer Cyclical
消费周期
Financial
金融
Communication Services
通信服务
Healthcare
医疗保健
Energy
能量
Real Estate
房地产
Basic materials
基础材料
Consumer Defensive
消费者防御性
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在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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