Topsports International Holdings Limited (HKG:6110) just released its latest full-year report and things are not looking great. Topsports International Holdings missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of CN¥29b and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.36, falling short by 2.2% and 4.0% respectively. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Topsports International Holdings after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Topsports International Holdings' 23 analysts is for revenues of CN¥30.7b in 2025. This would reflect an okay 6.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 12% to CN¥0.40. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥32.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.43 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target fell 5.5% to HK$7.08, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Topsports International Holdings analyst has a price target of HK$8.29 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$5.60. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Topsports International Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. For example, we noticed that Topsports International Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 6.0% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 4.5% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 10% per year. Although Topsports International Holdings' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Topsports International Holdings' future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Topsports International Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Topsports International Holdings .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.