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Is CenterPoint Energy (NYSE:CNP) A Risky Investment?

Is CenterPoint Energy (NYSE:CNP) A Risky Investment?

CenterPoint Energy(纽约证券交易所代码:CNP)是一项风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  05/21 09:41

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.'  When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin.  Importantly, CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (NYSE:CNP) does carry debt.  But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

传奇基金经理李露(由查理·芒格支持)曾经说过:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久的资本损失。”当我们思考一家公司的风险有多大时,我们总是喜欢考虑其债务的用途,因为债务过载可能导致破产。重要的是,CenterPoint Energy, Inc.(纽约证券交易所代码:CNP)确实有债务。但更重要的问题是:这笔债务会带来多大的风险?

When Is Debt A Problem?

债务何时会成为问题?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price.  In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors.  While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price.  Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage.  When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

当企业无法通过自由现金流或以诱人的价格筹集资金来轻松履行这些义务时,债务和其他负债就会成为风险。在最坏的情况下,如果公司无法向债权人付款,它可能会破产。尽管这种情况并不常见,但我们经常会看到负债公司永久稀释股东,因为贷款人迫使他们以不良价格筹集资金。话虽如此,最常见的情况是公司合理地管理债务,而且对自己有利。当我们检查债务水平时,我们首先要同时考虑现金和债务水平。

How Much Debt Does CenterPoint Energy Carry?

CenterPoint Energy 背负了多少债务?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2024 CenterPoint Energy had debt of US$19.1b, up from US$16.5b in one year.    However, it does have US$659.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$18.5b.  

您可以点击下图查看更多详情,该图片显示,截至2024年3月,CenterPoint Energy的债务为191亿美元,高于一年内的165亿美元。但是,它确实有6.590亿美元的现金抵消了这一点,净负债约为185亿美元。

NYSE:CNP Debt to Equity History May 21st 2024

纽约证券交易所:CNP 债务与股权比率历史记录 2024 年 5 月 21 日

A Look At CenterPoint Energy's Liabilities

看看 CenterPoint Energy 的负债

According to the last reported balance sheet, CenterPoint Energy had liabilities of US$3.43b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$26.8b due beyond 12 months.   Offsetting this, it had US$659.0m in cash and US$1.25b in receivables that were due within 12 months.   So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$28.3b.  

根据上次报告的资产负债表,CenterPoint Energy的负债为34.3亿美元,12个月以后到期的负债为268亿美元。与此相抵消的是,它有6.590亿美元的现金和12.5亿美元的应收账款将在12个月内到期。因此,其负债超过其现金和(短期)应收账款总额283亿美元。

When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's   huge  US$19.2b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently.  In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.  

当你考虑到这一缺口超过了公司192亿美元的巨额市值时,你很可能会倾向于仔细审查资产负债表。在公司必须迅速清理资产负债表的情况下,股东似乎可能会遭受大规模稀释。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover).  Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

为了扩大公司相对于收益的负债规模,我们计算其净负债除以其扣除利息、税项、折旧和摊销前的收益(EBITDA)和其利息和税前收益(EBIT)除以其利息支出(利息保障)。因此,无论是否有折旧和摊销费用,我们都将债务与收益的关系考虑在内。

CenterPoint Energy shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (6.0), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 2.4 times the interest expense.  The debt burden here is substantial.        On a slightly more positive note, CenterPoint Energy grew its EBIT at 13% over the last year, further increasing its ability to manage debt.       The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt.  But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine CenterPoint Energy's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward.  So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

由于息税前利润仅为利息支出的2.4倍,CenterPoint Energy的股东面临着净负债与息税折旧摊销前利润比率高(6.0)和利息覆盖率相当薄弱的双重打击。这里的债务负担是沉重的。稍微乐观的一面是,CenterPoint Energy的息税前利润比去年增长了13%,进一步提高了其管理债务的能力。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但是,未来的收益将决定CenterPoint Energy未来维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果您专注于未来,可以查看这份显示分析师利润预测的免费报告。

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it.   So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow.    During the last three years, CenterPoint Energy burned a lot of cash.  While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.  

最后,企业需要自由现金流来偿还债务;会计利润根本无法减少债务。因此,值得检查一下息税前利润中有多少是由自由现金流支持的。在过去的三年中,CenterPoint Energy消耗了大量现金。尽管投资者无疑预计这种情况将在适当的时候逆转,但这显然意味着其使用债务的风险更大。

Our View

我们的观点

On the face of it, CenterPoint Energy's net debt to EBITDA left us tentative about the stock, and its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year.    But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic.       It's also worth noting that CenterPoint Energy is in the Integrated Utilities industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive.     Overall, it seems to us that CenterPoint Energy's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business.  So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say.    The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt.  But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet.   For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for CenterPoint Energy (1 is potentially serious!) that you should be aware of before investing here.  

从表面上看,CenterPoint Energy的净负债占息税折旧摊销前利润让我们对该股持初步看法,其将息税前利润转换为自由现金流并不比一年中最繁忙的夜晚那家空荡荡的餐厅更具吸引力。但好的一面是,其息税前利润增长率是一个好兆头,也使我们更加乐观。还值得注意的是,CenterPoint Energy属于综合公用事业行业,人们通常认为该行业具有很强的防御性。总体而言,在我们看来,CenterPoint Energy的资产负债表对业务来说确实是一个很大的风险。因此,我们对这只鱼的警惕几乎就像一只饥饿的小猫要掉进主人的鱼池一样警惕:正如他们所说,一旦被咬伤,两次害羞。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但归根结底,每家公司都可以控制资产负债表之外存在的风险。例如,我们发现了 CenterPoint Energy 的 2 个警告信号(1 个可能很严重!)在这里投资之前,您应该注意这一点。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果你有兴趣投资能够在没有债务负担的情况下增加利润的企业,请查看这份资产负债表上有净现金的成长型企业的免费清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

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