Will Nvidia Q1 Print Disappoint? Munster Sees Near-Term Hit From 'Osborne Effect' But Says AI Stalwart Will 'Grow Faster For Longer'
Will Nvidia Q1 Print Disappoint? Munster Sees Near-Term Hit From 'Osborne Effect' But Says AI Stalwart Will 'Grow Faster For Longer'
Nvidia Corp.'s (NASDAQ:NVDA) earnings, due this week, have put macro and rate concerns on the back burner, with investor attention solely focused on the AI bellwether's fiscal-year 2025 first-quarter report. Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster on Monday offered his take on what to expect from the report when it drops in after the market close on Wednesday.
英伟达公司's（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）将于本周公布的财报将宏观和利率担忧置于次要地位，投资者的注意力仅集中在人工智能领头羊的2025财年第一季度报告上。深水资产管理管理管理合伙人吉恩·芒斯特周一对该报告在周三收盘后发布时对该报告的预期发表了看法。
Disappointment In The Cards? The impending launch of Blackwell, Nvidia's new flagship GPU platform, this fall creates a risk for the April, July and even October quarters, said Munster in a post on X, formerly Twitter. Customers may delay or cancel orders for the current H200 flagship chip and wait for the new chips this fall, he said, terming it as the "Osborne Effect."
对卡片感到失望？芒斯特在X（前身为Twitter）上的一篇文章中说，英伟达的新旗舰GPU平台Blackwell即将在今年秋天推出，这给4月、7月甚至10月的季度带来了风险。他说，客户可能会推迟或取消当前H200旗舰芯片的订单，并在今年秋天等待新芯片，称其为 “奥斯本效应”。
Osborne Effect refers to customers canceling or deferring orders for the current product in anticipation of the next iteration that would launched imminently.
奥斯本效应是指客户取消或推迟当前产品的订单，以等待即将推出的下一次迭代。
Munster expects the company to go all out in dampening the Osborne Effect. "There are rumors that Nvidia will push any customers who delay or cancel orders to the back of the waitlist for any Blackwell," he said, adding that he believes the rumors are true.
芒斯特预计，该公司将全力以赴抑制奥斯本效应。他说：“有传言称，Nvidia会将任何延迟或取消订单的客户推到任何Blackwell的候补名单的后面，” 他补充说，他认为传闻是真的。
"Nvidia is doing what it can to manage the product transition without a blow-up," the venture capitalist said. He expects investors to react negatively at first to any potential disappointment and then quickly realize "today's pain is for next quarter's gain."
这位风险投资家说：“Nvidia正在尽其所能管理产品过渡，而不会出现爆炸。”他预计，投资者首先会对任何潜在的失望情绪做出负面反应，然后很快意识到 “今天的痛苦是为了下一季度的收益”。
Munster expects orders to rebound once the Blackwell series, namely B100 B200, and GB200, are released.
芒斯特预计，一旦布莱克韦尔系列，即B100 B200和 GB200 发布，订单将反弹。
Forward Outlook: Munster sees any commentary about the July quarter to be extrapolated to what it would mean for calendar year 2025 earnings and revenue growth. The tech investor expects Nvidia to grow by about 85% this year. The current consensus calls for 2025 calendar year earnings growth of about 30% and revenue growth of 28%.
前瞻展望：芒斯特认为，对7月季度的任何评论都可以推断出它对2025日历年度的收益和收入增长的意义。这位科技投资者预计，英伟达今年将增长约85％。目前的共识要求2025年日历年度的收益增长约30％，收入增长28％。
Nvidia shares traded at a surprisingly conservative price-earnings growth ratio of one time and forward price-earnings multiple of 29 times.
英伟达股票的交易价格出人意料的保守市盈增长率为一倍，远期市盈倍数为29倍。
"My sense is results in CY25 will comfortably exceed the 30%. In other words, the AI build is still just starting, and Nvidia will grow faster for longer," Munster said.
“我的感觉是，25财年的业绩将轻松超过30％。换句话说，人工智能建设仍刚刚开始，Nvidia将在更长的时间内更快地增长，” 芒斯特说。
Analysts, on average, expect Nvidia to report first-quarter non-GAAP earnings per share of $5.12, sharply higher than the 98 cents per share reported a year ago. The consensus calls for nearly 247% revenue growth to $22.58 billion.
分析师平均预计，英伟达公布的第一季度非公认会计准则每股收益为5.12美元，大大高于去年同期公布的每股98美分。该共识要求收入增长近247％，达到225.8亿美元。
Nvidia shares ended Monday's session up 2.49% at $947.80, according to Benzinga Pro data. The stock has soared over 91% this year.
根据Benzinga Pro的数据，英伟达股价周一收盘上涨2.49％，至947.80美元。该股今年飙升了91％以上。
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