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There's Reason For Concern Over Hebei Jianxin Chemical Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:300107) Massive 31% Price Jump

There's Reason For Concern Over Hebei Jianxin Chemical Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:300107) Massive 31% Price Jump

有理由对河北建信化工有限公司感到担忧。”s (SZSE: 300107) 股价大幅上涨31%
Simply Wall St ·  05/20 21:50

Despite an already strong run, Hebei Jianxin Chemical Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300107) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 31% in the last thirty days. The last month tops off a massive increase of 159% in the last year.

Following the firm bounce in price, you could be forgiven for thinking Hebei Jianxin Chemical is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 10.5x, considering almost half the companies in China's Chemicals industry have P/S ratios below 2.2x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SZSE:300107 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry May 21st 2024

How Hebei Jianxin Chemical Has Been Performing

For instance, Hebei Jianxin Chemical's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Hebei Jianxin Chemical's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Hebei Jianxin Chemical would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 2.6%. Regardless, revenue has managed to lift by a handy 21% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 23% shows it's noticeably less attractive.

With this information, we find it concerning that Hebei Jianxin Chemical is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What Does Hebei Jianxin Chemical's P/S Mean For Investors?

Hebei Jianxin Chemical's P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

The fact that Hebei Jianxin Chemical currently trades on a higher P/S relative to the industry is an oddity, since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. When we observe slower-than-industry revenue growth alongside a high P/S ratio, we assume there to be a significant risk of the share price decreasing, which would result in a lower P/S ratio. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 3 warning signs for Hebei Jianxin Chemical (2 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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