Nvidia's New Blackwell GPUs Expected To Boost Future Revenues, KeyBanc Forecasts
Nvidia's New Blackwell GPUs Expected To Boost Future Revenues, KeyBanc Forecasts
KeyBanc analyst John Vinh maintained an Overweight rating on $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ with a price target of $1,200.
KeyBanc分析师约翰·荣维持增持评级 $英伟达 (NVDA.US)$ 目标股价为1200美元。
Despite anticipating next-generation Blackwell GPUs in the second half, Vinh noted limited signs of a demand pause and expects Nvidia to report fiscal first-quarter results and second-quarter guidance meaningfully above expectations.
尽管预计下半年将推出下一代Blackwell GPU，但Vinh注意到需求暂停的迹象有限，并预计英伟达公布的第一财季业绩和第二季度指引将明显超出预期。
The analyst expects an upside driven by improving the supply of H100 GPUs, as lead times have largely normalized, China's demand for H20 GPUs, and the initial ramp of H200 GPUs, which should mitigate a pause in H100 demand. He expects China to contribute $9 billion to $12 billion in calendar year 2024.
该分析师预计，H100 GPU供应的改善将推动上行空间，因为交货时间已基本恢复正常，中国对H20 GPU的需求以及H200 GPU的初步增长，这将缓解上半年需求的暂停。他预计，中国将在2024日历年贡献90亿至120亿美元。
Vinh expects GB200 and Blackwell to drive over $200 billion in DC revenue in 2025. B100 (a drop-in replacement for H100) and B200 will likely begin ramping from the third quarter and account for most GPU volume in the fourth quarter, with ASPs about 40%+ higher than Hopper.
Vinh 预计，到 2025 年，GB200 和 Blackwell 将为华盛顿特区带来超过 2000 亿美元的收入。B100（H100的直接替代品）和B200可能会从第三季度开始增加，占第四季度GPU销量的大部分，ASP比Hopper高出约40％以上。
Coupled with H200 ramps, Vinh expects a smooth transition between Hopper and Blackwell, with both product families ramping into the calendar year 2025. Furthermore, the analyst noted GB200 (GPU+CPU solution) becoming the mainstream Blackwell configuration due to its meaningfully lower TCO, driven by the MGX server rack standard adoption, with backlogs across all major hyperscalers and a demand of 60K – 70K, with an ASP of $1.5million – $2 million, and higher ASP for 72x GPUs.
再加上H200的上市，Vinh预计Hopper和Blackwell之间将平稳过渡，这两个产品系列都将延续到2025日历年。此外，该分析师指出，GB200（GPU+CPU解决方案）成为布莱克韦尔的主流配置，这是因为在采用MGX服务器机架标准的推动下，其总体拥有成本显著降低，所有主要超大规模供应商都有积压，需求为6万至7万英镑，ASP为150万至200万美元，72倍GPU的ASP更高。
Vinh estimates this alone would represent up to $140 billion+ revenue opportunity. In conjunction with HGX AI servers and networking, he estimates total data center revenue could contribute over $200 billion in 2025.
Vinh估计，仅此一项就将带来高达1400亿美元以上的收入机会。他估计，再加上HGX AI服务器和网络，到2025年，数据中心总收入可能超过2000亿美元。
Vinh's first-quarter revenue and EPS estimates are $25.6 billion and $5.81, compared to the consensus of $24.6 billion and $5.57. His second-quarter revenue and EPS estimates are $27.8 billion and $6.20, compared to the consensus of $26.6 billion and $5.92.
Vinh第一季度的收入和每股收益估计为256亿美元和5.81美元，而市场普遍预期为246亿美元和5.57美元。他第二季度的收入和每股收益估计为278亿美元和6.20美元，而市场普遍预期为266亿美元和5.92美元。
Vinh projected first-quarter revenue and EPS of $25.57 billion and $5.81.
Vinh预计第一季度收入和每股收益为255.7亿美元和5.81美元。