EXCLUSIVE: The Fed Should Cut Interest Rates Using Proven Fiscal Rule, Economic Expert Says
EXCLUSIVE: The Fed Should Cut Interest Rates Using Proven Fiscal Rule, Economic Expert Says
Blu Putnam, the former chief economist at the CME Group Inc (NASDAQ:CME) joined Benzinga's PreMarket Prep Wednesday morning to help dissect April's inflation report.
芝加哥商品交易所集团公司（纳斯达克股票代码：CME）前首席经济学家布鲁·普特南周三上午加入了本辛加的盘前预备会议，以帮助剖析4月份的通胀报告。
The CPI numbers showed lower-than-expected inflation growth in the previous month, helping spark a rally in the S&P 500 Index Trust (NYSE:SPDR) and the overall market.
Putnam argued that based on the Taylor Rule the Federal Reserve should start cutting interest rates. Hotter inflation reports in previous months have shifted the interest rate outlook, with initial market projections of four to five interest rate cuts in 2024 dropping to one to two.
What Is the Taylor Rule? The Taylor Rule, named after Stanford University economist John Taylor, is a formula that helps determine whether the central bank should cut or raise interest rates based on inflation and economic growth.
消费者价格指数数据显示上个月的通货膨胀增长低于预期，这有助于引发标准普尔500指数信托基金（纽约证券交易所代码：SPDR）和整个市场的上涨。
普特南认为，根据泰勒规则，美联储应该开始降息。前几个月更热的通胀报告改变了利率前景，最初的市场预测是2024年四到五次降息降至一到两次。
什么是泰勒规则？泰勒规则以斯坦福大学经济学家约翰·泰勒的名字命名，该公式有助于确定央行是否应根据通货膨胀和经济增长降低或提高利率。
"The Taylor rule says that the Fed has a dual mandate they have to trade off unemployment and inflation," Putnam said. "The Taylor rule basically takes unemployment at its trend rate... at unemployment we're kind of checking the box, we're not going up and it's not going down. Inflation has come down a lot and it's below the federal funds rate, so you know the Taylor rule says sure the unemployment rate is low but inflation has come down well below Federal fund rates, so let's cut rates."
普特南说：“泰勒规则规定，美联储有双重授权，他们必须在失业和通货膨胀之间进行权衡。”“泰勒规则基本上以趋势率计算失业率... 在失业率下，我们是在勾选方框，我们没有上升，也不会下降。通货膨胀率已经下降了很多，低于联邦基金利率，所以你知道泰勒规则说失业率肯定很低，但通货膨胀率已经下降了远低于联邦基金利率，所以让我们降息吧。”
Putnam went on to say that a few small interest rate cuts shouldn't have a drastic impact on inflation. Right now, CME's Fed Watch Tool shows that it's likely that the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of the year.
普特南接着说，几次小幅降息不应该对通货膨胀产生巨大影响。目前，芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具显示，美联储很可能会在年底之前将利率下调50个基点。
Despite April's lower inflation report reigniting hopes that the Fed will indeed be able to cut multiple times this year, many interest rate-sensitive sectors lagged the overall market in Wednesday's session. For example, the Invesco Solar ETF (NYSE:TAN) and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:KRE) were in the green but were underperforming the S&P 500 Wednesday afternoon.
尽管4月份较低的通胀报告重新点燃了人们对美联储今年确实能够多次削减的希望，但许多对利率敏感的板块在周三的交易中落后于整个市场。例如，景顺太阳能ETF（纽约证券交易所代码：TAN）和SPDR标准普尔地区银行ETF（纽约证券交易所代码：KRE）上涨，但周三下午表现低于标准普尔500指数。
To watch Putnam's full interview on PreMarket Prep, click here.
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要观看 Putnam 在 PreMarket Prep 上的完整采访，请点击此处。
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