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Don't Panic Yet! Ahead Of Key April Inflation Data, Economist Points To Charts That Hint At 'Some Good News' — 'Fed Beige Book Nailed This'

Don't Panic Yet! Ahead Of Key April Inflation Data, Economist Points To Charts That Hint At 'Some Good News' — 'Fed Beige Book Nailed This'

暂时不要惊慌!在4月份的关键通胀数据公布之前,经济学家指出了暗示 “一些好消息” 的图表—— “美联储褐皮书搞定了这一点”
Benzinga ·  05/15 05:03

The producer price inflation report released on Tuesday stirred worries concerning a hot consumer price inflation print, which weighed down on the market in early trading. An economist, however, pointed to a data point that could allay concerns about pricing pressure.

周二发布的生产者价格通胀报告引发了人们对消费者物价通胀数据火热的担忧,该数据在早盘交易中打压了市场。但是,一位经济学家指出,一个数据点可以缓解对定价压力的担忧。

What Happened: The results of the National Federation of Independent Business's small business survey released Tuesday threw up some encouraging news for Wednesday's CPI print, said David Rosenberg, founder and president at Rosenberg Research & Associates, in a post on X.

发生了什么:Rosenberg Research & Associates创始人兼总裁戴维·罗森伯格在关于X的文章中说,全国独立企业联合会周二发布的小企业调查结果为周三的消费者价格指数带来了一些令人鼓舞的消息。

Sharing two charts on current and future pricing power, the economist said the "downtrend in both is notable." He also said the latest installment of the Fed's Beige Book, a compilation of anecdotal evidence of economic conditions in the 12 Federal Reserve districts nailed this.

这位经济学家分享了两张关于当前和未来定价能力的图表,他说:“两者的下降趋势都很明显。”他还说,最新一期的美联储褐皮书汇编了12个美联储区经济状况的传闻证据,证实了这一点。

Ahead of tomorrow's CPI report, some encouraging news from today's NFIB small biz survey on current pricing and future pricing power. The downtrend in both is notable. The Fed Beige Book nailed this. pic.twitter.com/XwqwWvGskM

— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) May 14, 2024

在明天的消费者价格指数报告之前,今天的NFIB小型企业调查中出现了一些令人鼓舞的消息,该调查涉及当前定价和未来定价能力。两者的下降趋势都很明显。美联储褐皮书搞定了这一点。pic.twitter.com/xwqwwvgsKM

— 大卫·罗森伯格 (@EconguyRosie) 2024 年 5 月 14 日

Why It's Important: With the Federal Reserve's fixation on bringing inflation below its 2% upper ceiling, incoming data is keenly watched by the Street. Traders are particularly worried about inflation potentially resuming its upward climb and preventing the Fed from reversing its rate hikes.

为何重要:由于美联储致力于将通货膨胀率降至2%的上限以下,华尔街密切关注即将到来的数据。交易者特别担心通货膨胀可能会恢复向上攀升,并阻碍美联储扭转加息的趋势。

The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for June 11-12. Between now and then, traders get to digest two CPI inflation reports, one coming just ahead of the Fed decision on June 12. A personal income and spending report, which comprises the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, namely the annual rate of core price consumption expenditure data, is also due before the next meeting.

下一次联邦公开市场委员会会议定于6月11日至12日举行。从现在到那时,交易者需要消化两份消费者价格指数通胀报告,其中一份是在美联储6月12日做出决定之前发布的。个人收入和支出报告也将在下次会议之前发布,其中包括美联储首选的通货膨胀指标,即核心价格消费支出数据的年率。

This apart, traders may also look for cues on rate trajectory from the May non-farm payrolls report due in early June.

除此之外,交易者还可能从6月初发布的5月非农就业报告中寻找利率走势的线索。

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday stuck with his rhetoric that inflation has stayed elevated, likely keeping rates on hold for longer. But the market construed it as suggesting a rate cut could come as early as September.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周二坚持其言论,即通货膨胀率一直保持在较高水平,可能会在更长的时间内保持利率不变。但市场将其解释为暗示最早可能在9月降息。

The CPI report for April due Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. EDT is expected to show a 0.4% month-over-month increase in the headline number, compared with March's 0.3% rise. On an annual basis, however, the consumer price index may have risen 3.4%, lower than the 3.5% gain in the previous month.

美国东部时间周三上午8点30分公布的4月份消费者价格指数报告预计将显示总体数据同比增长0.4%,而3月份的涨幅为0.3%。但是,按年计算,消费者物价指数可能上涨3.4%,低于上个月的3.5%。

The monthly and annual rates of core consumer prices are expected at 0.3% and 3.6%, respectively, versus March's 0.4% and 3.8%.

核心消费者价格的月率和年增长率预计分别为0.3%和3.6%,而3月份为0.4%和3.8%。

The iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSE:TIP), an ETF tracking the investment results of an index composed of inflation-protected U.S. Treasury bonds, ended Wednesday's session up 0.19% at $106.29, according to Benzinga Pro data.

根据Benzinga Pro的数据,追踪由受通胀保护的美国国债组成的指数的投资业绩的交易所买卖基金iShares TIPS债券ETF(纽约证券交易所代码:TIP)周三收盘上涨0.19%,至106.29美元。

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