What To Expect From Alibaba's Earnings? Here's What Goldman Sachs Is Watching
What To Expect From Alibaba's Earnings? Here's What Goldman Sachs Is Watching
With the China internet sector up 15% year-to-date (or KraneShares Trust KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSE: KWEB) +30% from late-January lows), Goldman Sachs analyst Ronald Keung highlighted the critical numbers in focus heading in the Tencent Holding Ltd (OTC:TCEHY) and Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) prints and the investor debates as the companies kick off the results.
随着中国互联网板块今年迄今上涨15％（或KraneShares Trust KraneShares CSI中国互联网ETF（纽约证券交易所代码：KWEB）较1月下旬的低点上涨了30％），高盛分析师Ronald Keung强调了腾讯控股有限公司（场外交易代码：TCEHY）和阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司（纽约证券交易所代码：BABA）版画中备受关注的关键数字，以及两家公司公布业绩之际的投资者辩论。
The analyst noted first-quarter bottom line (with different earnings set up where he expects +15% year-on-year operating profit growth for Tencent and -8% group EBITA decline yoy at Alibaba, yet mostly priced-in) forward-looking commentaries around second-quarter top-line growth across Tencent's games re-acceleration and Alibaba's eCommerce fightback and international & cloud as growth drivers, and any updates to shareholder return policies as the next key share price drivers.
这位分析师指出了第一季度的底线（收益设置不同，他预计腾讯的营业利润同比增长15％，阿里巴巴集团息税折旧摊销前利润同比下降-8％，但大部分是定价的）前瞻性评论，围绕腾讯游戏重启和阿里巴巴的电子商务反击以及国际和云作为增长动力，股东回报政策的任何更新是下一个关键股价驱动因素。
While the analyst expects only mid-single-digit first-quarter group revenue growth Y/Y at both Tencent and Alibaba, for Tencent, he noted recent intense Tencent games March-April double-digit grossing growth trends could bring clear visibility of Tencent's second-quarter games revenue growth re-acceleration.
尽管分析师预计，腾讯和阿里巴巴第一季度集团收入同比增长仅为中等个位数，但他指出，腾讯最近3月至4月的强劲游戏收入两位数增长趋势可能会使腾讯第二季度游戏收入增长的重新加速清晰可见。
Meanwhile, alongside healthy advertising growth driven by Video Accounts, stable fintech and continued recovery in cloud revenue could contribute to Keung's expectations of healthy 20%+ profit growth for the first quarter and fiscal 2024.
同时，除了视频账户推动的健康广告增长外，稳定的金融科技和云收入的持续复苏可能有助于实现Keung对第一季度和2024财年利润健康增长20％以上的预期。
For Alibaba, Keung noted recent better-than-expected China total parcel volumes that tracked at >20% growth in April and +30% yoy over the Labor Day holidays and noted Alibaba management's revamped fightback strategy in eCommerce continues to gain traction, with Taobao-Tmall returning to faster-than-national retail sales growth rate in recent months.
对于阿里巴巴，强指出，最近中国包裹总量好于预期，4月份增长超过20％，劳动节假期同比增长30％，并指出，阿里巴巴管理层修改后的电子商务反击战略继续受到关注，淘宝-天猫在最近几个月恢复了快于全国的零售销售增长率。
The analyst noted that GMV growth will eventually translate to a re-acceleration of Alibaba's CMR growth, albeit more back-end skewed towards the second half of 2024.
这位分析师指出，尽管更多的后端向2024年下半年倾斜，但GMV的增长最终将转化为阿里巴巴CMR增长的重新加速。
Keung noted room for multiple valuation improvements from the current valuation, more than offsetting his and the street's expectations. Keung remained Buy-rated on Tencent and Alibaba.
姜指出，与当前估值相比，估值还有多次提高的余地，这足以抵消他和华尔街的预期。Keung仍对腾讯和阿里巴巴给予买入评级。
Price Action: BABA shares traded higher by 5.56% at $84.49 at the last check Monday.
价格走势：周一最后一次检查时，BABA股价上涨5.56％，至84.49美元。
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