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Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:IONS) After Its First-Quarter Results

Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:IONS) After Its First-Quarter Results

以下是分析师对爱奥尼斯制药公司(纳斯达克股票代码:IONS)公布第一季度业绩后的预测
Simply Wall St ·  05/09 07:32

Last week, you might have seen that Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:IONS) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.8% to US$40.16 in the past week. It wasn't the greatest result, with ongoing losses and revenues of US$119m falling short of analyst predictions. The losses were a relative bright spot though, with a per-share statutory loss of US$0.98 being moderately smaller than the analysts forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

上周,你可能已经看到爱奥尼斯制药公司(纳斯达克股票代码:IONS)向市场发布了季度业绩。早期的反应并不乐观,过去一周股价下跌6.8%,至40.16美元。这并不是最好的结果,持续亏损和1.19亿美元的收入低于分析师的预期。不过,亏损相对亮点,每股法定亏损0.98美元,略低于分析师的预期。对于投资者来说,盈利是一个重要时刻,因为他们可以追踪公司的业绩,查看分析师对明年的预测,看看对公司的情绪是否发生了变化。因此,我们收集了最新的财报后预测,以了解估计对明年的预测。

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGS:IONS Earnings and Revenue Growth May 9th 2024
NASDAQGS: IONS 收益和收入增长 2024 年 5 月 9 日

After the latest results, the consensus from Ionis Pharmaceuticals' 20 analysts is for revenues of US$599.4m in 2024, which would reflect a stressful 23% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are forecast to balloon 49% to US$3.94 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$619.7m and losses of US$3.94 per share in 2024.

最新业绩公布后,爱奥尼斯制药的20位分析师一致认为,2024年的收入为5.994亿美元,这将反映出收入与去年业绩相比下降了23%的压力。预计亏损将激增49%,至每股3.94美元。然而,在最新财报公布之前,分析师一直预测2024年的收入为6.197亿美元,每股亏损3.94美元。

The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$58.17, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite a downwards adjustment to forecast revenue next year. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ionis Pharmaceuticals at US$85.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$33.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

共识目标股价基本保持不变,为58.17美元,这意味着尽管对明年的收入预测进行了下调,但该业务的表现大致符合预期。但是,固定单一价格目标可能是不明智的,因为共识目标实际上是分析师目标股价的平均值。因此,一些投资者喜欢查看估计范围,看看对公司的估值是否有任何分歧。目前,最看涨的分析师对爱奥尼斯制药的估值为每股85.00美元,而最看跌的分析师估值为每股33.00美元。这是相当广泛的估计,表明分析师正在预测该业务的各种可能结果。

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 5.6% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 29% decline in revenue until the end of 2024. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 18% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Ionis Pharmaceuticals is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

从现在的大局来看,我们可以理解这些预测的方法之一是看看它们如何与过去的业绩和行业增长预期相比较。在过去五年中,收入每年下降约5.6%。更糟糕的是,预测本质上是预测下降将加速,预计到2024年底,收入的年化下降29%。相比之下,分析师对更广泛行业公司的估计表明,收入(总计)预计每年将增长18%。因此,尽管预计将有许多公司增长,但不幸的是,预计爱奥尼斯制药的收入受到的影响将比业内其他公司更严重。

The Bottom Line

底线

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

最明显的结论是,分析师对明年亏损的预测没有改变。不幸的是,他们还下调了收入预期,我们的数据显示,与整个行业相比,表现不佳。即便如此,每股收益对业务的内在价值更为重要。共识目标股价没有实际变化,这表明该业务的内在价值与最新估计相比没有发生任何重大变化。

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ionis Pharmaceuticals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

根据这种思路,我们认为该业务的长期前景比明年的收益重要得多。在Simply Wall St,我们有分析师对爱奥尼斯制药公司到2026年的全方位估计,你可以在我们的平台上免费看到这些估计。

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Ionis Pharmaceuticals has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

例如,您仍然需要注意风险——爱奥尼斯制药公司有1个警告信号,我们认为您应该注意。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

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