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We Think Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

We Think Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

我们认为德文能源(纽约证券交易所代码:DVN)可以继续偿还债务
Simply Wall St ·  05/06 07:43

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Devon Energy Corporation (NYSE:DVN) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

大卫·伊本说得好,他说:“波动性不是我们关心的风险。我们关心的是避免资本的永久损失。”因此,很明显,当你考虑任何给定股票的风险时,你需要考虑债务,因为过多的债务会使公司陷入困境。我们注意到,德文能源公司(纽约证券交易所代码:DVN)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但真正的问题是这笔债务是否使公司面临风险。

When Is Debt Dangerous?

债务何时危险?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

一般而言,只有当公司无法通过筹集资金或用自己的现金流轻松还清债务时,债务才会成为真正的问题。在最坏的情况下,如果公司无法向债权人付款,它可能会破产。但是,更频繁(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,公司必须以低廉的价格发行股票,永久稀释股东,以支撑其资产负债表。当然,债务可以成为企业的重要工具,尤其是资本密集型企业。当我们考虑公司使用债务时,我们首先将现金和债务放在一起考虑。

What Is Devon Energy's Debt?

德文能源的债务是什么?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Devon Energy had US$6.15b of debt in March 2024, down from US$6.42b, one year before. However, it also had US$1.13b in cash, and so its net debt is US$5.02b.

你可以点击下图查看历史数字,但它显示德文能源在2024年3月的债务为61.5亿美元,低于一年前的64.2亿美元。但是,它也有11.3亿美元的现金,因此其净负债为50.2亿美元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
NYSE:DVN Debt to Equity History May 6th 2024
纽约证券交易所:DVN 债务与股本比率历史记录 2024 年 5 月 6 日

A Look At Devon Energy's Liabilities

看看德文能源的负债

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Devon Energy had liabilities of US$3.27b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$9.37b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$1.13b as well as receivables valued at US$1.67b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$9.84b.

我们可以从最新的资产负债表中看出,德文能源的负债为32.7亿美元,一年后到期的负债为93.7亿美元。除这些债务外,它有11.3亿美元的现金以及价值16.7亿美元的应收账款将在12个月内到期。因此,其负债超过其现金和(短期)应收账款总额98.4亿美元。

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Devon Energy has a huge market capitalization of US$32.0b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

尽管这可能看起来很多,但还不错,因为德文能源的市值高达320亿美元,因此如果需要,它可能会通过筹集资金来加强其资产负债表。但是,仍然值得仔细研究其偿还债务的能力。

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

我们使用两个主要比率来告知我们相对于收益的债务水平。第一个是净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前的收益(EBITDA),第二个是其利息和税前收益(EBIT)覆盖其利息支出(或简称利息保障)的多少倍。因此,我们将债务与收益的关系考虑在内,包括和不包括折旧和摊销费用。

Devon Energy's net debt is only 0.70 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 14.3 times over. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. In fact Devon Energy's saving grace is its low debt levels, because its EBIT has tanked 44% in the last twelve months. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Devon Energy's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

德文能源的净负债仅为其息税折旧摊销前利润的0.70倍。其息税前利润高达14.3倍的利息支出。因此,我们对它超保守的债务使用相当放松。实际上,德文能源的储蓄之处在于其低债务水平,因为其息税前利润在过去十二个月中下降了44%。收益下降(如果这种趋势持续下去)最终也可能使即使是微不足道的债务也相当危险。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但是,未来的收益将决定德文能源未来维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Devon Energy recorded free cash flow worth 57% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

最后,公司只能用冷硬现金偿还债务,不能用会计利润偿还债务。因此,合乎逻辑的步骤是研究息税前利润与实际自由现金流相匹配的比例。在最近三年中,德文能源公司的自由现金流占其息税前利润的57%,鉴于自由现金流不包括利息和税收,这几乎是正常的。这种自由现金流使公司处于有利地位,可以在适当的时候偿还债务。

Our View

我们的观点

Based on what we've seen Devon Energy is not finding it easy, given its EBIT growth rate, but the other factors we considered give us cause to be optimistic. There's no doubt that its ability to to cover its interest expense with its EBIT is pretty flash. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Devon Energy's use of debt. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Devon Energy (including 1 which can't be ignored) .

根据我们所见,鉴于其息税前利润增长率,德文能源公司并不容易,但我们考虑的其他因素使我们有理由感到乐观。毫无疑问,它用息税前利润支付利息支出的能力相当闪烁。当我们考虑上述所有因素时,我们对德文能源的债务使用确实有些谨慎。尽管我们意识到债务可以提高股本回报率,但我们建议股东密切关注其债务水平,以免债务增加。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但是,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中,远非如此。为此,你应该了解我们在德文能源公司发现的3个警告信号(包括一个不容忽视的警告)。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

当然,如果你是那种喜欢在没有债务负担的情况下购买股票的投资者,那么请立即查看我们的独家净现金增长股票清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

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