Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (NASDAQ:ABUS), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues fell -43% short of what the analysts had expected, coming in at US$1.6m. Statutory losses were somewhat milder than expected, coming in with a loss of US$0.10 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the five analysts covering Arbutus Biopharma, is for revenues of US$7.11m in 2024. This implies a substantial 45% reduction in Arbutus Biopharma's revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$0.39. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$9.23m and losses of US$0.44 per share in 2024. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated losses the business will incur.

There was no major change to the US$4.41average price target, suggesting that the adjustments to revenue and earnings are not expected to have a long-term impact on the business. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Arbutus Biopharma analyst has a price target of US$5.01 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$4.01. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 55% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 33% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 18% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Arbutus Biopharma is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$4.41, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Arbutus Biopharma going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Arbutus Biopharma .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.