As you might know, Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. (SHSE:603899) recently reported its quarterly numbers. Revenues came in 4.0% below expectations, at CN¥5.5b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of CN¥0.41 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

After the latest results, the 19 analysts covering Shanghai M&G Stationery are now predicting revenues of CN¥27.7b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a decent 16% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 15% to CN¥1.95. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥27.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.97 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at CN¥48.94. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Shanghai M&G Stationery, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥63.00 and the most bearish at CN¥33.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Shanghai M&G Stationery'shistorical trends, as the 21% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 19% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 20% annually. So although Shanghai M&G Stationery is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥48.94, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Shanghai M&G Stationery going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Shanghai M&G Stationery , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.