Americans Swap $5 Burgers For $1,000 Weight Loss Drugs — Is Soda Getting Left Behind Too?
Americans Swap $5 Burgers For $1,000 Weight Loss Drugs — Is Soda Getting Left Behind Too?
A trio of earnings reports Tuesday morning may have given us a glimpse into how Americans' consumption habits are shifting. Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY), which makes Mounjaro, one of the leading weight-loss drugs in the United States, beat EPS estimates and also raised its 2024 revenue guidance, sending the stock higher.
Meanwhile, both McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) and Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) each reported underwhelming quarters, sending their respective stocks lower. Weight-loss drugs, like Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro, have swept through the country, quadrupling the number of prescriptions to more than 8 million last year. This means that almost 2.5% of all Americans were prescribed some form of weight-loss medication.
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周二上午的三份财报可能让我们一窥美国人的消费习惯正在发生怎样的变化。生产美国领先的减肥药物之一Mounjaro的礼来公司（纽约证券交易所代码：LLY）超过了每股收益预期，还上调了2024年的收入预期，使该股走高。
同时，麦当劳（纽约证券交易所代码：MCD）和可口可乐（纽约证券交易所代码：KO）均公布了低迷的季度业绩，导致各自的股票走低。诸如Ozempic、Wegovy和Mounjaro之类的减肥药物已席卷全国，去年的处方数量翻了三番，达到800万张以上。这意味着将近2.5％的美国人服用了某种形式的减肥药物。
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Because of the drugs' impact on limiting appetite, it's safe to assume that some people may eat fewer burgers and fries from McDonald's and other fast-food chains. Undergoing weight-loss treatment through expensive medication may also incentivize patients to cut out unnecessary calories like the ones found in soda.
由于这些药物会影响食欲，可以肯定地说，有些人可能会少吃麦当劳和其他快餐连锁店的汉堡和薯条。通过昂贵的药物进行减肥治疗还可能激励患者减少不必要的卡路里，例如苏打水中的卡路里。
One market expert, Chris Versace, host of the Thematic Signals podcast, said it's still too early to determine whether weight-loss drugs directly impact McDonald's sales volume. But, Versace points out that markets tend to be a 'forward-looking animal'. If the adoption of weight-loss drugs continues to grow, the impact on 'junk food' stocks like McDonald's and Coca-Cola could be more significant.
"So it's hard to measure, right? So far we haven't really seen any results. But as we know, the market tends to be a forward-looking animal," Versace said, as reported by TheStreet. "So it's saying to itself, geez, what could this be possibly in 12, 18, 24 months? And the issue is that when we see forecasts and expectations like this, they tend to get ahead of themselves, and I think that's exactly what's happening here again."
一位市场专家，主题信号播客的主持人克里斯·范思哲表示，现在确定减肥药物是否直接影响麦当劳的销量还为时过早。但是，范思哲指出，市场往往是 “前瞻性动物”。如果减肥药物的采用率继续增长，对麦当劳和可口可乐等 “垃圾食品” 库存的影响可能会更大。
“所以很难测量，对吧？到目前为止，我们还没有真正看到任何结果。但正如我们所知，市场往往是一种前瞻性动物。” 据TheStreet报道，范思哲说。“所以它不言自明，哎呀，12、18、24个月后会发生什么？问题在于，当我们看到这样的预测和预期时，他们往往会超越自我，我认为这正是这里再次发生的事情。”
The Bottom Line: Weight-loss drugs appear to be continuing to trend upward, while McDonald's and Coca-Cola are lacking growth. Other issues, like inflation, could also be negatively effecting sales from fast-food companies with lower-income customers most impacted.
底线：减肥药似乎继续呈上升趋势，而麦当劳和可口可乐则缺乏增长。通货膨胀等其他问题也可能对受低收入客户影响最大的快餐公司的销售产生负面影响。
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Image generated using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
通过 Midjourney 使用人工智能生成的图像。