As you might know, Business First Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:BFST) last week released its latest first-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Business First Bancshares missed earnings this time around, with US$61m revenue coming in 2.2% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.48 also fell short of expectations by 16%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

After the latest results, the five analysts covering Business First Bancshares are now predicting revenues of US$265.0m in 2024. If met, this would reflect an okay 6.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 34% to US$1.66 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$257.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.31 in 2024. While next year's revenue estimates increased, there was also a pretty serious reduction to EPS expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view of these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$28.00, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Business First Bancshares, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$30.50 and the most bearish at US$26.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Business First Bancshares' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Business First Bancshares' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 24% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Business First Bancshares' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$28.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Business First Bancshares going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Business First Bancshares that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.