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Calculating The Fair Value Of Daqo New Energy Corp. (NYSE:DQ)
Calculating The Fair Value Of Daqo New Energy Corp. (NYSE:DQ)
Key Insights
- Daqo New Energy's estimated fair value is US$19.06 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- With US$22.29 share price, Daqo New Energy appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
- Our fair value estimate is 35% lower than Daqo New Energy's analyst price target of US$29.45
How far off is Daqo New Energy Corp. (NYSE:DQ) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Is Daqo New Energy Fairly Valued?
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | -US$570.9m | US$198.3m | US$528.8m | US$304.0m | US$200.4m | US$153.9m | US$130.0m | US$116.7m | US$109.2m | US$105.0m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x5 | Analyst x6 | Analyst x4 | Analyst x1 | Est @ -34.09% | Est @ -23.18% | Est @ -15.54% | Est @ -10.19% | Est @ -6.45% | Est @ -3.83% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.7% | -US$520 | US$165 | US$400 | US$210 | US$126 | US$88.2 | US$67.9 | US$55.6 | US$47.4 | US$41.5 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$681m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.7%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$105m× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (9.7%– 2.3%) = US$1.4b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$1.4b÷ ( 1 + 9.7%)10= US$571m
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$1.3b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$22.3, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
Important Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Daqo New Energy as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.321. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Daqo New Energy
- Currently debt free.
- Balance sheet summary for DQ.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the American market.
- Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
- What else are analysts forecasting for DQ?
Moving On:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Daqo New Energy, we've put together three pertinent items you should look at:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Daqo New Energy that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does DQ's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
关键见解
- 根据两阶段股权自由现金流计算,大全新能源的公允价值估计为19.06美元
- 大全新能源的股价为22.29美元,其交易价格似乎接近其估计的公允价值
- 我们的公允价值估计比大全新能源分析师设定的29.45美元的目标股价低35%
达科新能源公司(纽约证券交易所代码:DQ)距离其内在价值有多远?使用最新的财务数据,我们将通过预测未来的现金流,然后将其折现为今天的价值,来研究股票的定价是否合理。这将使用折扣现金流 (DCF) 模型来完成。在你认为自己无法理解之前,请继续阅读!实际上,它没有你想象的那么复杂。
我们要提醒的是,对公司进行估值的方法有很多,就像DCF一样,每种技术在某些情况下都有优点和缺点。如果你对这种估值还有一些迫切的问题,可以看看 Simply Wall St 分析模型。
大全新能源估值合理吗?
我们使用所谓的两阶段模型,这仅意味着公司的现金流有两个不同的增长期。通常,第一阶段是较高的增长阶段,第二阶段是较低的增长阶段。首先,我们需要估计未来十年的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们会使用分析师的估计值,但是当这些估计值不可用时,我们会从最新的估计值或报告的价值中推断出之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓其萎缩速度,而自由现金流不断增长的公司在此期间的增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期增长的放缓幅度往往比后来的几年更大。
通常,我们假设今天的一美元比未来一美元更有价值,因此我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行折价才能得出现值估计:
10 年自由现金流 (FCF) 估计
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF(美元,百万) | -5709 亿美元 | 1.983 亿美元 | 528.8 亿美元 | 3.04 亿美元 | 200.4 亿美元 | 1.539 亿美元 | 1.300 亿美元 | 1.167 亿美元 | 1.092 亿美元 | 1.05 亿美元 |
增长率估算来源 | 分析师 x5 | 分析师 x6 | 分析师 x4 | 分析师 x1 | 美国东部标准时间 @ -34.09% | 美国东部标准时间 @ -23.18% | 美国东部标准时间 @ -15.54% | 美国东部标准时间 @ -10.19% | 美国东部标准时间 @ -6.45% | 美国东部标准时间 @ -3.83% |
现值(美元,百万)折扣 @ 9.7% | -520 美元 | 165 美元 | 400 美元 | 210 美元 | 126 美元 | 88.2 美元 | 67.9 美元 | 55.6 美元 | 47.4 美元 | 41.5 美元 |
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估计的FCF增长率)
10 年期现金流 (PVCF) 的现值 = 6.81 亿美元
第二阶段也称为终值,这是企业在第一阶段之后的现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终值,其未来年增长率等于10年期国债收益率2.3%的5年平均水平。我们将终端现金流折现为今天的价值,权益成本为9.7%。
终端价值 (TV) = FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = 1.05 亿美元× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (9.7% — 2.3%) = 14亿美元
终端价值的现值 (PVTV) = 电视/ (1 + r)10= 14亿美元÷ (1 + 9.7%)10= 5.71 亿美元
总价值是未来十年的现金流总额加上贴现的终端价值,由此得出总权益价值,在本例中为13亿美元。在最后一步中,我们将股票价值除以已发行股票的数量。相对于目前的22.3美元股价,该公司在撰写本文时看似公允价值。但是,估值是不精确的工具,就像望远镜一样——移动几度,最终进入另一个星系。请记住这一点。
重要假设
我们要指出的是,贴现现金流的最重要投入是贴现率,当然还有实际的现金流。如果你不同意这些结果,那就自己计算一下,试一试假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑公司未来的资本需求,因此它没有全面反映公司的潜在表现。鉴于我们将大全新能源视为潜在股东,因此使用权益成本作为贴现率,而不是构成债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了9.7%,这是基于1.321的杠杆测试版。Beta是衡量股票与整个市场相比波动性的指标。我们的测试版来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔值,设定在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定的业务的合理范围。
大全新能源的SWOT分析
- 目前无债务。
- DQ 的资产负债表摘要。
- 在过去的一年中,收益有所下降。
- 预计年收入的增长速度将快于美国市场。
- 与估计的公允市盈率相比,基于市盈率,物有所值。
- 预计年收益的增长速度将低于美国市场。
- 分析师对DQ还有什么预测?
继续前进:
虽然重要,但理想情况下,DCF的计算不会是您为公司仔细检查的唯一分析内容。DCF模型并不是投资估值的万能药。相反,DCF模型的最佳用途是测试某些假设和理论,看看它们是否会导致公司被低估或高估。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者其股本成本或无风险利率急剧变化,则产出可能会大不相同。对于大全新能源,我们整理了三个相关项目,你应该注意:
- 风险:例如,我们发现了大全新能源的1个警告信号,在投资之前,您应该注意这一点。
- 未来收益:与同行和整个市场相比,DQ的增长率如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,深入了解未来几年的分析师共识数字。
- 其他高质量的替代品:你喜欢一个优秀的全能选手吗?浏览我们的高品质股票互动清单,了解您可能还会错过什么!
PS。Simply Wall St每天都会更新每只美国股票的差价合约计算结果,因此,如果您想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,请在此处搜索。
对这篇文章有反馈吗?对内容感到担忧?直接联系我们。 或者,给编辑团队 (at) simplywallst.com 发送电子邮件。
Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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