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Are Investors Undervaluing SIA Engineering Company Limited (SGX:S59) By 26%?
Are Investors Undervaluing SIA Engineering Company Limited (SGX:S59) By 26%?
Key Insights
- Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, SIA Engineering fair value estimate is S$2.95
- SIA Engineering is estimated to be 26% undervalued based on current share price of S$2.19
- Our fair value estimate is 9.2% higher than SIA Engineering's analyst price target of S$2.71
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of SIA Engineering Company Limited (SGX:S59) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
The Method
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF (SGD, Millions) | S$134.5m | S$124.4m | S$139.6m | S$186.1m | S$200.3m | S$211.1m | S$220.3m | S$228.3m | S$235.6m | S$242.3m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 5.35% | Est @ 4.36% | Est @ 3.67% | Est @ 3.18% | Est @ 2.84% |
Present Value (SGD, Millions) Discounted @ 7.7% | S$125 | S$107 | S$112 | S$138 | S$138 | S$135 | S$131 | S$126 | S$121 | S$115 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = S$1.2b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.1%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.7%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = S$242m× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (7.7%– 2.1%) = S$4.4b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= S$4.4b÷ ( 1 + 7.7%)10= S$2.1b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is S$3.3b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of S$2.2, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 26% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at SIA Engineering as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.235. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for SIA Engineering
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- Balance sheet summary for S59.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Infrastructure market.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Singaporean market.
- Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
- Dividends are not covered by earnings and cashflows.
- Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
- See S59's dividend history.
Looking Ahead:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For SIA Engineering, we've put together three essential aspects you should assess:
- Financial Health: Does S59 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does S59's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SGX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
关键见解
- 使用两阶段自由现金流股本计算,新航工程的公允价值估计为2.95新元
- 根据目前2.19新元的股价,SIA工程估计被低估了26%
- 我们的公允价值估计比新航工程的分析师目标股价2.71新元高9.2%
今天,我们将介绍一种估算新航工程有限公司(SGX: S59)内在价值的方法,即采用预期的未来现金流并将其折现为今天的价值。我们的分析将采用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。在你认为自己无法理解之前,请继续阅读!实际上,它没有你想象的那么复杂。
但请记住,估算公司价值的方法有很多,而差价合约只是一种方法。如果你对这种估值还有一些迫切的问题,可以看看 Simply Wall St 分析模型。
该方法
我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,这只是意味着我们考虑了公司增长的两个阶段。在初始阶段,公司的增长率可能更高,而第二阶段通常被认为具有稳定的增长率。首先,我们必须估算出未来十年的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们会使用分析师的估计值,但是当这些估计值不可用时,我们会从最新的估计值或报告的价值中推断出之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓其萎缩速度,而自由现金流不断增长的公司在此期间的增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期增长的放缓幅度往往比后来的几年更大。
差价合约完全是关于未来一美元的价值低于今天一美元的想法,因此我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行折现才能得出现值估计:
10 年自由现金流 (FCF) 估计
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF(新加坡元,百万) | 134.5 亿新元 | 1.244 亿新元 | 1.396 亿新元 | 1.861 亿新元 | 200.3 亿新元 | 2.111 亿新元 | 2.203 亿新元 | 2.283 亿新元 | 2.356 亿新元 | 242.3 亿新元 |
增长率估算来源 | 分析师 x2 | 分析师 x2 | 分析师 x2 | 分析师 x1 | 分析师 x1 | Est @ 5.35% | Est @ 4.36% | 美国东部标准时间 @ 3.67% | 东部时间 @ 3.18% | Est @ 2.84% |
现值(新加坡元,百万新元)折扣 @ 7.7% | 新币 125 | 新币 107 美元 | 新币 112 美元 | 新币 138 美元 | 新币 138 美元 | 新币 135 美元 | 新币 131 美元 | 新币 126 美元 | 新币 121 美元 | 115 新元 |
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估计的FCF增长率)
10 年期现金流 (PVCF) 的现值 = 12 亿新元
在计算了最初10年期未来现金流的现值之后,我们需要计算终端价值,该终端价值考虑了第一阶段之后的所有未来现金流。Gordon Growth 公式用于按未来年增长率计算终端价值,该增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值2.1%。我们将终端现金流折现为今天的价值,权益成本为7.7%。
终端价值 (TV) = FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = 2.42亿新元× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (7.7% — 2.1%) = 44亿新元
终端价值的现值 (PVTV) = 电视/ (1 + r)10= 4.4亿新元÷ (1 + 7.7%)10= 21亿新元
总价值是未来十年的现金流总额加上折后的终端价值,由此得出总权益价值,在本例中为33亿新元。在最后一步中,我们将股票价值除以已发行股票的数量。与目前的2.2新元股价相比,该公司的估值似乎略有低估,与目前股价相比折扣了26%。但是,估值是不精确的工具,就像望远镜一样——移动几度,最终进入另一个星系。请记住这一点。
假设
现在,贴现现金流的最重要输入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。投资的一部分是自己对公司未来业绩的评估,因此请自己尝试计算并检查自己的假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑公司未来的资本需求,因此它没有全面反映公司的潜在表现。鉴于我们将SIA Engineering视为潜在股东,因此使用权益成本作为贴现率,而不是构成债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了7.7%,这是基于1.235的杠杆测试版。Beta是衡量股票与整个市场相比波动性的指标。我们的测试版来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔值,设定在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定的业务的合理范围。
SIA 工程的 SWOT 分析
- 过去一年的收益增长超过了该行业。
- 债务不被视为风险。
- S59 的资产负债表摘要。
- 与基础设施市场前25%的股息支付者相比,股息较低。
- 预计年收入的增长速度将快于新加坡市场。
- 交易价格比我们估计的公允价值低20%以上。
- 股息不在收益和现金流的覆盖范围内。
- 预计收入每年增长将低于20%。
- 查看S59的股息历史记录。
展望未来:
就建立投资论点而言,估值只是硬币的一面,它不应该是你在研究公司时唯一考虑的指标。使用DCF模型不可能获得万无一失的估值。最好你运用不同的案例和假设,看看它们将如何影响公司的估值。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者其股本成本或无风险利率急剧变化,则产出可能会大不相同。为什么内在价值高于当前股价?对于 SIA 工程而言,我们汇总了您应该评估的三个基本方面:
- 财务状况:S59的资产负债表是否良好?看看我们的免费资产负债表分析,其中包含对杠杆和风险等关键因素的六项简单检查。
- 未来收益:与同行和整个市场相比,S59的增长率如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,深入了解未来几年的分析师共识数字。
- 其他高质量的替代品:你喜欢一个优秀的全能选手吗?浏览我们的高品质股票互动清单,了解您可能还会错过什么!
PS。Simply Wall St应用程序每天对新加坡交易所的每只股票进行折扣现金流估值。如果您想找到其他股票的计算方法,请在此处搜索。
对这篇文章有反馈吗?对内容感到担忧?直接联系我们。 或者,给编辑团队 (at) simplywallst.com 发送电子邮件。
Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。
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风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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