China's Economy Expected To Surge 5.3% This Year, Fueled By Property Sector Stabilization And Regional Growth: AMRO
China's Economy Expected To Surge 5.3% This Year, Fueled By Property Sector Stabilization And Regional Growth: AMRO
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) anticipates China's economy to expand by 5.3% this year, bolstered by the stabilizing property sector and improving external demand.
东盟+3宏观经济研究办公室（AMRO）预计，受房地产行业稳定和外部需求改善的推动，中国经济今年将增长5.3％。
What Happened: AMRO, based in Singapore, suggests that a gradual recovery in China's property market, backed by ongoing policy measures, will boost real estate investment and have positive ripple effects on the rest of the region. This forecast was first reported by Bloomberg on Monday.
发生了什么：总部位于新加坡的AMRO表示，在持续的政策措施的支持下，中国房地产市场的逐步复苏将促进房地产投资，并对该地区其他地区产生积极的连锁反应。彭博社周一首次报道了这一预测。
This growth projection aligns with China's official target of around 5%, a target deemed ambitious and requiring further governmental support. Despite the economic activity uptick at the start of 2024, the economy still faces numerous challenges.
这一增长预测与中国设定的5％左右的官方目标一致，这一目标被认为雄心勃勃，需要政府的进一步支持。尽管经济活动在2024年初有所增加，但经济仍然面临许多挑战。
AMRO's chief economist, Hoe Ee Khor, stated, "China will continue to be a powerhouse in the region and the main driver of growth." He also acknowledged the real estate sector's weakness, saying it "will take a bit of time to overcome, but it will happen and we expect the drag on growth will bottom out maybe this year."
AMRO首席经济学家Hoe Ee Khor表示：“中国将继续成为该地区的强国和增长的主要推动力。”他还承认房地产行业的疲软，他说 “需要一点时间才能克服，但会发生，我们预计增长的拖累可能会在今年触底。”
The report also pointed out potential risks, including the possibility of China's growth rate being slower than expected. If growth were to rise by only 4.3% this year, regional growth could be reduced by 1.7 percentage points, affecting trade, investment, and tourism.
该报告还指出了潜在风险，包括中国增长率可能低于预期。如果今年增长仅增长4.3％，地区增长可能会减少1.7个百分点，从而影响贸易、投资和旅游。
Why It Matters: This forecast comes amid a series of events that have shaped China's economic landscape. Earlier this month, China's manufacturing sector surged to a 13-month peak, signaling an economic revival. Additionally, China's largest bank, ICBC, pledged to fund $41 billion in tourism to revive the sector.
为何重要：这一预测是在一系列塑造中国经济格局的事件之际作出的。本月早些时候，中国制造业飙升至13个月的峰值，标志着经济复苏。此外，中国最大的银行中国工商银行承诺为旅游业提供410亿美元的资金，以振兴该行业。
Furthermore, a recent survey revealed that Southeast Asian nations prefer China over the U.S. as their primary alignment choice.
此外，最近的一项调查显示，东南亚国家更喜欢中国而不是美国作为其主要的调整选择。
This geopolitical shift could have significant implications for China's economy. Lastly, U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, kicked off her four-day visit to China, pledging to strengthen economic ties while cautioning against global risks associated with China's manufacturing overcapacity.
这种地缘政治转变可能会对中国经济产生重大影响。最后，美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦开始了对中国为期四天的访问，承诺加强经济关系，同时提醒注意与中国制造业产能过剩相关的全球风险。
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