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Is HNI Corporation (NYSE:HNI) Trading At A 46% Discount?
Is HNI Corporation (NYSE:HNI) Trading At A 46% Discount?
Key Insights
- HNI's estimated fair value is US$81.06 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Current share price of US$43.98 suggests HNI is potentially 46% undervalued
- Analyst price target for HNI is US$52.33 which is 35% below our fair value estimate
Does the April share price for HNI Corporation (NYSE:HNI) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
The Model
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$146.5m | US$192.6m | US$193.8m | US$196.0m | US$198.9m | US$202.3m | US$206.1m | US$210.2m | US$214.6m | US$219.3m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Est @ 0.62% | Est @ 1.12% | Est @ 1.47% | Est @ 1.72% | Est @ 1.89% | Est @ 2.01% | Est @ 2.09% | Est @ 2.15% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.9% | US$137 | US$168 | US$158 | US$150 | US$142 | US$135 | US$129 | US$123 | US$117 | US$112 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$1.4b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.9%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$219m× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (6.9%– 2.3%) = US$4.8b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$4.8b÷ ( 1 + 6.9%)10= US$2.5b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$3.8b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$44.0, the company appears quite good value at a 46% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
Important Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at HNI as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.012. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for HNI
- Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
- Balance sheet summary for HNI.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Commercial Services market.
- Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
- Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
- Dividends are not covered by earnings.
- Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the American market.
- See HNI's dividend history.
Moving On:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For HNI, there are three pertinent factors you should explore:
- Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 6 warning signs for HNI you should know about.
- Future Earnings: How does HNI's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
关键见解
- 根据两阶段的股本自由现金流,HNI的公允价值估计为81.06美元
- 目前的股价为43.98美元,表明HNI可能被低估了46%
- 分析师对HNI的目标股价为52.33美元,比我们的公允价值估计低35%
HNI Corporation(纽约证券交易所代码:HNI)4月份的股价是否反映了其真正价值?今天,我们将通过预测股票的未来现金流来估算股票的内在价值,然后将其折现为今天的价值。为此,我们将利用折扣现金流 (DCF) 模型。不要被行话吓跑,它背后的数学其实很简单。
我们要提醒的是,对公司进行估值的方法有很多,就像DCF一样,每种技术在某些情况下都有优点和缺点。对于那些热衷于股票分析的人来说,你可能会对这里的Simply Wall St分析模型感兴趣。
该模型
我们使用所谓的两阶段模型,这仅意味着公司的现金流有两个不同的增长期。通常,第一阶段是较高的增长阶段,第二阶段是较低的增长阶段。在第一阶段,我们需要估算未来十年的业务现金流。在可能的情况下,我们会使用分析师的估计值,但是当这些估计值不可用时,我们会从最新的估计值或报告的价值中推断出之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓其萎缩速度,而自由现金流不断增长的公司在此期间的增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期增长的放缓幅度往往比后来的几年更大。
差价合约完全是关于未来一美元的价值低于今天一美元的想法,因此我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行折现才能得出现值估计:
10 年自由现金流 (FCF) 估计
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF(美元,百万) | 1.465 亿美元 | 192.6 亿美元 | 193.8 亿美元 | 1.960 亿美元 | 198.9 亿美元 | 2.023 亿美元 | 2.061 亿美元 | 210.2 亿美元 | 2.146 亿美元 | 2.193 亿美元 |
增长率估算来源 | 分析师 x2 | 分析师 x2 | 美国东部标准时间 @ 0.62% | 东部时间 @ 1.12% | Est @ 1.47% | Est @ 1.72% | Est @ 1.89% | Est @ 2.01% | 美国东部时间 @ 2.09% | 东部时间 @ 2.15% |
现值(美元,百万)折扣 @ 6.9% | 137 美元 | 168 美元 | 158 美元 | 150 美元 | 142 美元 | 135 美元 | 129 美元 | 123 美元 | 117 美元 | 112 美元 |
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估计的FCF增长率)
十年期现金流(PVCF)的现值 = 14亿美元
我们现在需要计算终值,该值涵盖了这十年之后的所有未来现金流。出于多种原因,使用的增长率非常保守,不能超过一个国家的GDP增长。在这种情况下,我们使用10年期国债收益率的5年平均值(2.3%)来估计未来的增长。与10年 “增长” 期一样,我们将未来的现金流折现为今天的价值,使用6.9%的股本成本。
终端价值 (TV) = FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = 2.19亿美元× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (6.9% — 2.3%) = 48亿美元
终端价值的现值 (PVTV) = 电视/ (1 + r)10= 48亿美元¼ (1 + 6.9%)10= 25亿美元
因此,总价值或权益价值是未来现金流现值的总和,在本例中为38亿美元。在最后一步中,我们将股票价值除以已发行股票的数量。相对于目前的44.0美元的股价,该公司看起来物有所值,比目前的股价折扣了46%。任何计算中的假设都会对估值产生重大影响,因此最好将其视为粗略的估计,而不是精确到最后一美分。
重要假设
现在,贴现现金流的最重要输入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。你不必同意这些输入,我建议你自己重做计算然后试一试。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑公司未来的资本需求,因此它没有全面反映公司的潜在表现。鉴于我们将HNI视为潜在股东,因此使用权益成本作为贴现率,而不是构成债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了6.9%,这是基于1.012的杠杆测试版。Beta是衡量股票与整个市场相比波动性的指标。我们的测试版来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔值,设定在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定的业务的合理范围。
HNI 的 SWOT 分析
- 收益和现金流足以弥补债务。
- HNI 的资产负债表摘要。
- 在过去的一年中,收益有所下降。
- 与商业服务市场前25%的股息支付者相比,股息很低。
- 在过去的一年中,股东被稀释了。
- 预计年收入的增长速度将快于美国市场。
- 交易价格比我们估计的公允价值低20%以上。
- 股息不包括在收益中。
- 预计年收入的增长速度将低于美国市场。
- 查看 HNI 的股息历史记录。
继续前进:
虽然重要,但理想情况下,DCF的计算不会是您为公司仔细检查的唯一分析内容。使用DCF模型不可能获得万无一失的估值。最好你运用不同的案例和假设,看看它们将如何影响公司的估值。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者其股本成本或无风险利率急剧变化,则产出可能会大不相同。为什么内在价值高于当前股价?对于 HNI,您应该探讨三个相关因素:
- 风险:每家公司都有风险,我们发现了6个你应该知道的HNI警告信号。
- 未来收益:与同行和整个市场相比,HNI的增长率如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,深入了解未来几年的分析师共识数字。
- 其他稳健的业务:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去表现是强大业务的基础。为什么不浏览我们具有坚实业务基础的股票互动清单,看看是否还有其他你可能没有考虑过的公司!
PS。Simply Wall St应用程序每天对纽约证券交易所的每只股票进行折扣现金流估值。如果您想找到其他股票的计算方法,请在此处搜索。
对这篇文章有反馈吗?对内容感到担忧?直接联系我们。 或者,给编辑团队 (at) simplywallst.com 发送电子邮件。
Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。
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在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
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在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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