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We Think Shoucheng Holdings (HKG:697) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

We Think Shoucheng Holdings (HKG:697) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

我们认为首城控股(HKG: 697)可以继续偿还债务
Simply Wall St ·  04/04 18:15

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Shoucheng Holdings Limited (HKG:697) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

沃伦·巴菲特曾说过一句名言:“波动性远非风险的代名词。”当我们思考一家公司的风险有多大时,我们总是喜欢考虑其债务的用途,因为债务过载可能导致破产。与许多其他公司一样,首城控股有限公司(HKG: 697)也使用债务。但是这笔债务是股东关心的问题吗?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

为什么债务会带来风险?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

债务可以为企业提供帮助,直到企业难以用新的资本或自由现金流还清债务。在最坏的情况下,如果一家公司无法偿还债权人,它可能会破产。但是,更常见(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,公司必须以低廉的股价稀释股东才能控制债务。当然,许多公司使用债务为增长提供资金,而不会产生任何负面影响。考虑公司的债务水平的第一步是同时考虑其现金和债务。

What Is Shoucheng Holdings's Debt?

首城控股的债务是什么?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Shoucheng Holdings had HK$793.2m of debt in December 2023, down from HK$1.05b, one year before. However, it does have HK$5.19b in cash offsetting this, leading to net cash of HK$4.39b.

你可以点击下图查看历史数字,但它显示首城控股在2023年12月有7.932亿港元的债务,低于一年前的10.5亿港元。但是,它确实有51.9亿港元的现金抵消了这一点,净现金为43.9亿港元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SEHK:697 Debt to Equity History April 4th 2024
SEHK: 697 2024 年 4 月 4 日债务与股本的比率记录

How Healthy Is Shoucheng Holdings' Balance Sheet?

首城控股的资产负债表有多健康?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Shoucheng Holdings had liabilities of HK$1.33b due within a year, and liabilities of HK$2.15b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had HK$5.19b in cash and HK$203.6m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it actually has HK$1.91b more liquid assets than total liabilities.

最新的资产负债表数据显示,首城控股的负债为13.3亿港元,此后到期的负债为21.5亿港元。与此相抵消的是,它有51.9亿港元的现金和2.036亿港元的应收账款将在12个月内到期。所以它实际上有19.1亿港元 更多 流动资产超过总负债。

This surplus suggests that Shoucheng Holdings is using debt in a way that is appears to be both safe and conservative. Because it has plenty of assets, it is unlikely to have trouble with its lenders. Simply put, the fact that Shoucheng Holdings has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.

这种盈余表明,首城控股正在以一种看似既安全又保守的方式使用债务。由于它拥有充足的资产,因此不太可能与贷款人发生麻烦。简而言之,首城控股的现金多于债务这一事实可以说是一个很好的迹象,表明它可以安全地管理债务。

Unfortunately, Shoucheng Holdings saw its EBIT slide 5.1% in the last twelve months. If earnings continue on that decline then managing that debt will be difficult like delivering hot soup on a unicycle. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Shoucheng Holdings will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

不幸的是,首城控股的息税前利润在过去十二个月中下降了5.1%。如果收益继续下降,那么管理这笔债务将像在独轮车上送热汤一样困难。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但是你不能完全孤立地看待债务;因为首城控股需要收益来偿还债务。因此,在考虑债务时,绝对值得一看收益趋势。单击此处查看交互式快照。

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. While Shoucheng Holdings has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. During the last three years, Shoucheng Holdings burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

最后,企业需要自由现金流来偿还债务;会计利润根本无法减少债务。尽管首城控股的资产负债表上有净现金,但仍值得一看其将息税前收益(EBIT)转换为自由现金流的能力,以帮助我们了解其建立(或侵蚀)现金余额的速度有多快。在过去的三年中,首城控股烧掉了大量现金。尽管投资者无疑预计这种情况将在适当的时候逆转,但这显然意味着其使用债务的风险更大。

Summing Up

总结

While we empathize with investors who find debt concerning, you should keep in mind that Shoucheng Holdings has net cash of HK$4.39b, as well as more liquid assets than liabilities. So we are not troubled with Shoucheng Holdings's debt use. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Shoucheng Holdings you should know about.

虽然我们同情那些认为债务令人担忧的投资者,但您应该记住,首城控股的净现金为43.9亿港元,流动资产也多于负债。因此,我们对首城控股的债务使用并不感到困扰。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但归根结底,每家公司都可以控制资产负债表之外存在的风险。这些风险可能很难发现。每家公司都有它们,我们发现了你应该知道的首城控股的1个警告标志。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

归根结底,通常最好将注意力集中在没有净负债的公司身上。您可以访问我们的此类公司的特别名单(所有公司都有利润增长记录)。它是免费的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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