'Forget Bitcoin Price Targets': Crypto Expert Says 30% Of Cycle Top Metrics Are 'High Risk'
'Forget Bitcoin Price Targets': Crypto Expert Says 30% Of Cycle Top Metrics Are 'High Risk'
Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards shared a comprehensive list of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) cycle top signals, highlighting the importance of monitoring these metrics over focusing on price targets.
Capriole Investments创始人查尔斯·爱德华兹分享了比特币（加密货币：BTC）周期最高信号的完整清单，强调了监控这些指标比关注价格目标的重要性。
What Happened: Edwards took to X on Wednesday to discuss the key indicators that could signal a Bitcoin cycle top. "Forget price targets," Edwards writes, stressing the need to remain "open-minded and nimble" and cautioning against getting "fixated on arbitrary dollar targets or the fear of missing out (FOMO) on a possible super cycle."
发生了什么：爱德华兹周三前往X讨论了可能预示比特币周期顶峰的关键指标。爱德华兹写道：“忘记价格目标，” 他强调需要保持 “开放的心态和灵活性”，并告诫不要 “专注于任意的美元目标，也不要害怕错过可能的超级周期（FOMO）”。
Edwards pointed out important metrics to look out for:
爱德华兹指出了需要注意的重要指标：
- Supply Delta + 90 Day Coin Days Destroyed (CDD): Watch for a rounded top.
- Long-term Holder Inflation Rate: Currently at 0.5. It still has a lot of room until the 2.0 threshold, which marks a high likelihood of the cycle top being in.
- Hodler Growth Rate (HGR): Cycle tops typically occur when HGR hasn't made a new high in 6-9 months. Currently, it is 3 months in now.
- Bitcoin Heater: Extended periods of extreme funding/basis/options readings.
- Mayer Multiple: Any readings over 2.5 have marked all the major Bitcoin cycle tops, currently at 1.6.
- 供应 Delta + 90 天硬币销毁天数 (CDD)：注意圆顶。
- 长期持有人通货膨胀率：目前为0.5。在达到2.0阈值之前，它还有很大的空间，这表明进入周期顶峰的可能性很大。
- 霍德勒增长率（HGR）：周期顶峰通常发生在HGR在6-9个月内没有创出新高时。目前，已经过去了3个月。
- 比特币加热器：延长极端资金/基础/期权读数的时期。
- Mayer Multiple：任何超过2.5的读数都标志着比特币的所有主要周期高点，目前为1.6。
He also highlighted the Dynamic Range NVT, On-chain Transaction Fees, Net Unrealized PnL (NUPL), Spent Volume 7-10 years, SLRV Ribbons, Dormancy Flow, Percent Addresses in Profit, and U.S. Liquidity.
他还重点介绍了动态范围 NVT、链上交易费用、未实现净损益（NUPL）、7-10 年的支出量、SLRV 色带、休眠流量、利润地址百分比和美国流动性。
Also Read: Here's What Robert Kiyosaki Is Going To Do If Bitcoin Falls To $200 In The 'Biggest Everything Crash'
另请阅读：如果比特币在 “最大的一切崩溃” 中跌至200美元，罗伯特·清崎将要做什么
Why It Matters: Edwards' analysis provides a comprehensive guide for crypto enthusiasts and investors to navigate the volatile Bitcoin market. He noted that 30% of the metrics are at high risk, indicating the need for closer monitoring for a cycle top. Currently, Bitcoin's weekly and monthly gains stand at around 5% while its yearly gains are at 134%.
为何重要：爱德华兹的分析为加密爱好者和投资者提供了全面的指南，帮助他们驾驭动荡的比特币市场。他指出，30％的指标处于高风险状态，这表明需要对周期顶峰进行更密切的监测。目前，比特币的每周和每月涨幅约为5％，而其年度涨幅为134％。
He emphasized that these metrics are more important than any predictions or price targets, highlighting the importance of data-driven decision-making in the crypto market.
他强调说，这些指标比任何预测或价格目标都重要，强调了数据驱动决策在加密市场中的重要性。
What's Next: Edwards concludes, "Don't expect the next cycle top to be the same as the last. Not all metrics will work. Some new metrics will."
下一步是什么：Edwards总结道：“不要指望下一个周期的顶峰会与上一个周期相同。并非所有指标都能奏效。一些新指标将出现。”
The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is a topic expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga's upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
Benzinga即将于11月19日举行的数字资产未来活动预计将深入探讨比特币作为机构资产类别的影响力。
Image created using artificial intelligence with Midjourney.
使用 Midjourney 使用人工智能创建的图像。