Guangshen Railway Company Limited (HKG:525) Just Released Its Yearly Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates
Guangshen Railway Company Limited (HKG:525) Just Released Its Yearly Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates
Shareholders might have noticed that Guangshen Railway Company Limited (HKG:525) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.2% to HK$1.77 in the past week. It was an okay report, and revenues came in at CN¥26b, approximately in line with analyst estimates leading up to the results announcement. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
股东们可能已经注意到,广深铁路股份有限公司(HKG: 525)上周这个时候公布了年度业绩。早期的反应并不乐观,过去一周股价下跌2.2%,至1.77港元。这是一份不错的报告,收入为260亿元人民币,与业绩公布前的分析师估计大致一致。分析师通常会在每份收益报告中更新他们的预测,我们可以从他们的估计中判断他们对公司的看法是否发生了变化,或者是否有任何新的问题需要注意。根据这些结果,我们收集了最新的法定预测,以了解分析师是否改变了盈利模式。
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Guangshen Railway from five analysts is for revenues of CN¥27.5b in 2024. If met, it would imply a reasonable 5.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 17% to CN¥0.18. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥27.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.18 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
考虑到最新业绩,五位分析师对广深铁路的最新共识是,2024年的收入为275亿元人民币。如果得到满足,这意味着其收入在过去12个月中合理增长了5.1%。每股收益预计将增长17%,至0.18元人民币。然而,在最新财报公布之前,分析师曾预计2024年的收入为275亿元人民币,每股收益(EPS)为0.18元人民币。因此,在最近的业绩公布之后,整体情绪似乎略有下降——收入估计没有重大变化,但分析师确实对每股收益的预测进行了小幅下调。
The consensus price target held steady at HK$2.66, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Guangshen Railway analyst has a price target of HK$2.98 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$2.50. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
共识目标股价稳定在2.66港元,分析师似乎投票认为,在可预见的将来,他们较低的预期收益预计不会导致股价下跌。但是,这并不是我们可以从这些数据中得出的唯一结论,因为一些投资者在评估分析师目标股价时也喜欢考虑估计值的差异。最乐观的广深铁路分析师将目标股价定为每股2.98港元,而最悲观的分析师则将其估值为2.50港元。尽管如此,由于估计范围如此之窄,这表明分析师对他们认为该公司的价值有了很好的了解。
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Guangshen Railway's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 5.1% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.6% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 5.5% per year. Guangshen Railway is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.
我们可以从大局的角度看待这些估计值的另一种方式,例如预测如何与过去的表现相提并论,以及预测相对于业内其他公司是否或多或少看涨。分析师肯定预计,广深铁路的增长将加速,预计到2024年底的年化增长率为5.1%,而过去五年的历史年增长率为3.6%。预计该行业其他类似公司(有分析师报道)的收入也将以每年5.5%的速度增长。预计广深铁路的增长速度将与其行业大致相同,因此目前尚不清楚我们能否从其相对于竞争对手的增长中得出任何结论。
The Bottom Line
底线
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$2.66, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
要了解的最重要的一点是,分析师下调了每股收益的预期,这表明公布这些业绩后,市场情绪明显下降。令人高兴的是,收入预测没有实际变化,预计该业务仍将与整个行业保持一致。共识目标股价稳定在2.66港元,最新估计不足以对其目标股价产生影响。
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Guangshen Railway going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
考虑到这一点,我们仍然认为该业务的长期发展轨迹对于投资者来说更为重要。我们对广深铁路将于2026年开通做出了预测,你可以在我们的平台上免费查看。
It might also be worth considering whether Guangshen Railway's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.
可能还值得考虑广深铁路的债务负担是否合适,在这里使用我们在Simply Wall St平台上的债务分析工具。
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。