The annual results for Midea Real Estate Holding Limited (HKG:3990) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenue of CN¥74b surpassed estimates by 2.0%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 46% below expectations at CN¥0.66 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

After the latest results, the consensus from Midea Real Estate Holding's six analysts is for revenues of CN¥58.3b in 2024, which would reflect a stressful 21% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 63% to CN¥1.04. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥61.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.28 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 18% to HK$7.15. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Midea Real Estate Holding analyst has a price target of HK$11.47 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$4.20. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 21% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 18% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 6.2% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Midea Real Estate Holding is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Midea Real Estate Holding. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Midea Real Estate Holding's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Midea Real Estate Holding. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Midea Real Estate Holding going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Midea Real Estate Holding (including 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.