JPMorgan's Chief Global Equity Strategist Warns Of 'Out-Of-The-Blue' Stock Market Shock: 'It Just Might Come One Day'
JPMorgan's Chief Global Equity Strategist Warns Of 'Out-Of-The-Blue' Stock Market Shock: 'It Just Might Come One Day'
JPMorgan Chase & Co's clients have been warned by its chief global equity strategist, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, of a potential "out-of-the-blue" shock to the stock market. This warning comes amid a strong first quarter for stocks.
摩根大通首席全球股票策略师杜布拉夫科·拉科斯-布哈斯警告摩根大通的客户，股市可能出现 “出乎意料” 的冲击。该警告是在第一季度股市表现强劲之际发出的。
What Happened: Lakos-Bujas cautioned investors on Wednesday about the risks associated with the current momentum trade in the U.S. equities market, reported Bloomberg. He highlighted the dangers of excessive crowding in the market's top-performing stocks, which could lead to an unexpected correction.
发生了什么：彭博社报道，Lakos-Bujas周三提醒投资者注意与美国股市当前动量交易相关的风险。他强调了市场表现最佳的股票过度拥挤的危险，这可能会导致意想不到的修正。
"It just might come one day out of the blue. This has happened in the past; we've had flash crashes," Lakos-Bujas said in a webinar. One big fund starts de-levering some positions, a second fund hears that and tries to reposition, the third fund basically gets caught off guard, and the next thing you know, we start having a bigger and bigger momentum unwind."
“有朝一日可能会出乎意料。过去曾发生过这种情况；我们曾经发生过闪电故障。” Lakos-Bujas在网络研讨会上说。一家大基金开始降低部分头寸的杠杆率，第二只基金听到这一消息并试图进行重新定位，第三只基金基本上措手不及，接下来你知道的是，我们开始失去越来越大的势头。”
He mentioned that various factors such as earnings, Fed expectations, and the possibility of former president Donald Trump's election victory have already been factored into the market. Additionally, he highlighted NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA). And the potential for AI innovation as a primary source of upside surprise. However, he emphasized that these opportunities are becoming scarcer, with increasing risks looming in the background.
他提到，诸如收益、美联储预期以及前总统唐纳德·特朗普在大选中获胜的可能性等各种因素已经被纳入市场。此外，他还重点介绍了英伟达公司（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）。而且，人工智能创新的潜力是上行惊喜的主要来源。但是，他强调说，这些机会越来越少，背景中隐约可见的风险越来越大。
Furthermore, he observed a trend in recent history where the surge into popular momentum stocks like the Magnificent Seven is often succeeded by a correction. This pattern has occurred three times since the Global Financial Crisis.
此外，他观察到近代历史上的一个趋势，即像科技七巨头这样的热门动量股票的激增通常会被修正所取代。自全球金融危机以来，这种模式已经出现过三次。
Why It Matters: The stock market has been performing exceptionally well, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 15% upside for the S&P 500 by the end of 2024. The exceptional performance of mega-cap tech stocks drives this surge. However, Lakos-Bujas' warning suggests that the current momentum trade may not be sustainable.
为何重要：股市表现异常出色，高盛预测到2024年底，标准普尔500指数将上涨15％。大型科技股的出色表现推动了这种飙升。但是，Lakos-Bujas的警告表明，当前的动量交易可能不可持续。
His concerns align with a general sense of caution among investors and analysts despite the stock market's strong performance in the first quarter of 2024. The stock market's robust performance has prompted investors and strategists to consider potential warning signs and protective measures against an anticipated market correction.
尽管股市在2024年第一季度表现强劲，但他的担忧与投资者和分析师普遍持谨慎态度一致。股市的强劲表现促使投资者和策略师考虑潜在的警告信号和保护措施，以防预期的市场调整。
Furthermore, the upcoming 2024 presidential election will impact the stock market significantly. According to UBS, the stark policy differences between the two key contenders, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, could lead to significant market implications.
此外，即将到来的2024年总统大选将对股市产生重大影响。根据瑞银的说法，两个主要竞争者，总统乔·拜登和前总统唐纳德·特朗普之间的明显政策分歧可能会对市场产生重大影响。
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