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Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of TAL Education Group (NYSE:TAL)
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of TAL Education Group (NYSE:TAL)
Key Insights
- The projected fair value for TAL Education Group is US$9.96 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- TAL Education Group's US$11.34 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
- The US$13.59 analyst price target for TAL is 36% more than our estimate of fair value
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of TAL Education Group (NYSE:TAL) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
The Model
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$57.7m | US$144.3m | US$279.4m | US$309.5m | US$335.0m | US$356.7m | US$375.2m | US$391.5m | US$406.0m | US$419.4m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x6 | Analyst x6 | Analyst x5 | Est @ 10.79% | Est @ 8.24% | Est @ 6.45% | Est @ 5.20% | Est @ 4.33% | Est @ 3.72% | Est @ 3.29% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.2% | US$53.9 | US$126 | US$227 | US$234 | US$237 | US$235 | US$231 | US$225 | US$217 | US$209 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$2.0b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.2%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$419m× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (7.2%– 2.3%) = US$8.7b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$8.7b÷ ( 1 + 7.2%)10= US$4.4b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$6.4b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$11.3, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
Important Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at TAL Education Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.872. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for TAL Education Group
- Currently debt free.
- Balance sheet summary for TAL.
- Expensive based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.
- What are analysts forecasting for TAL?
- Expected to breakeven next year.
- Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
- No apparent threats visible for TAL.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For TAL Education Group, we've put together three important elements you should assess:
- Financial Health: Does TAL have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does TAL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
关键见解
- 根据两阶段股权自由现金流,TAL教育集团的预计公允价值为9.96美元
- TAL教育集团的11.34美元股价表明其交易价格与其公允价值估计相似
- 分析师对TAL的目标股价为13.59美元,比我们对公允价值的估计高出36%
今天,我们将介绍一种估算TAL教育集团(纽约证券交易所代码:TAL)内在价值的方法,即预测其未来的现金流,然后将其折现为今天的价值。这将使用折扣现金流 (DCF) 模型来完成。不要被行话吓跑,它背后的数学其实很简单。
我们普遍认为,公司的价值是其未来将产生的所有现金的现值。但是,差价合约只是众多估值指标中的一个,而且并非没有缺陷。任何有兴趣进一步了解内在价值的人都应该读一读 Simply Wall St 分析模型。
该模型
我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,这只是意味着我们考虑了公司增长的两个阶段。在初始阶段,公司的增长率可能更高,而第二阶段通常被认为具有稳定的增长率。在第一阶段,我们需要估算未来十年的业务现金流。在可能的情况下,我们会使用分析师的估计值,但是当这些估计值不可用时,我们会从最新的估计值或报告的价值中推断出之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓其萎缩速度,而自由现金流不断增长的公司在此期间的增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期增长的放缓幅度往往比后来的几年更大。
通常,我们假设今天的一美元比未来一美元更有价值,因此我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行折价才能得出现值估计:
10 年自由现金流 (FCF) 预测
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF(美元,百万) | 5,770 万美元 | 1.443 亿美元 | 279.4 亿美元 | 3.095 亿美元 | 335.0 亿美元 | 356.7 亿美元 | 375.2 亿美元 | 391.5 亿美元 | 4.060 亿美元 | 419.4 亿美元 |
增长率估算来源 | 分析师 x6 | 分析师 x6 | 分析师 x5 | Est @ 10.79% | 东部时间 @ 8.24% | Est @ 6.45% | 东部时间 @ 5.20% | Est @ 4.33% | Est @ 3.72% | Est @ 3.29% |
现值(美元,百万)折扣 @ 7.2% | 53.9 美元 | 126 美元 | 227 美元 | 234 美元 | 237 美元 | 235 美元 | 231 美元 | 225 美元 | 217 美元 | 209 美元 |
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估计的FCF增长率)
十年期现金流(PVCF)的现值 = 20亿美元
我们现在需要计算终值,该终值涵盖了这十年之后的所有未来现金流量。戈登增长公式用于计算终值,其未来年增长率等于10年期国债收益率2.3%的5年平均水平。我们将终端现金流折现为今天的价值,权益成本为7.2%。
终端价值 (TV) = FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = 4.19亿美元× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (7.2% — 2.3%) = 87亿美元
终端价值的现值 (PVTV) = 电视/ (1 + r)10= 87亿美元÷ (1 + 7.2%)10= 44 亿美元
总价值是未来十年的现金流总额加上贴现的终端价值,由此得出总权益价值,在本例中为64亿美元。在最后一步中,我们将股票价值除以已发行股票的数量。相对于目前的11.3美元的股价,该公司在撰写本文时看似公允价值。任何计算中的假设都会对估值产生重大影响,因此最好将其视为粗略的估计,而不是精确到最后一美分。
重要假设
我们要指出的是,贴现现金流的最重要投入是贴现率,当然还有实际的现金流。你不必同意这些输入,我建议你自己重做计算然后试一试。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑公司未来的资本需求,因此它没有全面反映公司的潜在表现。鉴于我们将TAL Education Group视为潜在股东,因此使用权益成本作为贴现率,而不是构成债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了7.2%,这是基于0.872的杠杆贝塔值。Beta是衡量股票与整个市场相比波动性的指标。我们的测试版来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔值,设定在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定的业务的合理范围。
TAL 教育集团的 SWOT 分析
- 目前无债务。
- TAL 的资产负债表摘要。
- 根据市销率和估计的公允价值,价格昂贵。
- 分析师对TAL的预测是什么?
- 预计明年将实现盈亏平衡。
- 根据当前的自由现金流,有足够的现金流超过3年。
- TAL 看不到明显的威胁。
后续步骤:
尽管重要,但DCF的计算不应是你在研究公司时唯一考虑的指标。使用DCF模型不可能获得万无一失的估值。相反,DCF模型的最佳用途是测试某些假设和理论,看看它们是否会导致公司被低估或高估。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者其股本成本或无风险利率急剧变化,则产出可能会大不相同。对于TAL教育集团,我们汇总了您应该评估的三个重要要素:
- 财务状况:TAL的资产负债表是否良好?看看我们的免费资产负债表分析,其中包含对杠杆和风险等关键因素的六项简单检查。
- 未来收益:与同行和整个市场相比,TAL的增长率如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地了解未来几年的分析师共识数字。
- 其他稳健的业务:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去表现是强大业务的基础。为什么不浏览我们具有坚实业务基础的股票互动清单,看看是否还有其他你可能没有考虑过的公司!
PS。Simply Wall St应用程序每天对纽约证券交易所的每只股票进行折扣现金流估值。如果您想找到其他股票的计算方法,请在此处搜索。
对这篇文章有反馈吗?对内容感到担忧?直接联系我们。 或者,给编辑团队 (at) simplywallst.com 发送电子邮件。
Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。
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风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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