-
市场
-
产品
-
资讯
-
Moo社区
-
课堂
-
查看更多
-
功能介绍
-
费用费用透明,无最低余额限制
投资选择、功能介绍、费用相关信息由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供
- English
- 中文繁體
- 中文简体
- 深色
- 浅色
An Intrinsic Calculation For Iris Energy Limited (NASDAQ:IREN) Suggests It's 50% Undervalued
An Intrinsic Calculation For Iris Energy Limited (NASDAQ:IREN) Suggests It's 50% Undervalued
Key Insights
- Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Iris Energy fair value estimate is US$11.27
- Iris Energy is estimated to be 50% undervalued based on current share price of US$5.65
- The US$11.07 analyst price target for IREN is 1.8% less than our estimate of fair value
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Iris Energy Limited (NASDAQ:IREN) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
The Method
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | -US$191.2m | US$58.7m | US$63.0m | US$66.3m | US$69.1m | US$71.7m | US$74.1m | US$76.3m | US$78.4m | US$80.5m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 5.20% | Est @ 4.32% | Est @ 3.71% | Est @ 3.29% | Est @ 2.99% | Est @ 2.78% | Est @ 2.63% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.9% | -US$179 | US$51.4 | US$51.6 | US$50.8 | US$49.6 | US$48.1 | US$46.5 | US$44.8 | US$43.1 | US$41.4 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$248m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.9%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$80m× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (6.9%– 2.3%) = US$1.8b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$1.8b÷ ( 1 + 6.9%)10= US$924m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$1.2b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$5.7, the company appears quite undervalued at a 50% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
Important Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Iris Energy as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.996. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Iris Energy
- Currently debt free.
- Balance sheet summary for IREN.
- Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
- Expected to breakeven next year.
- Good value based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.
- Has less than 3 years of cash runway based on current free cash flow.
- Is IREN well equipped to handle threats?
Looking Ahead:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Iris Energy, we've compiled three fundamental factors you should assess:
- Risks: Take risks, for example - Iris Energy has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
- Future Earnings: How does IREN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
关键见解
- 使用两阶段的股本自由现金流,Iris Energy的公允价值估计为11.27美元
- 根据目前5.65美元的股价,Iris Energy的估值估计被低估了50%
- 分析师对IREN的目标股价为11.07美元,比我们对公允价值的估计低1.8%
今天,我们将简单介绍一种估值方法,该方法用于估算艾瑞斯能源有限公司(纳斯达克股票代码:IREN)作为投资机会的吸引力,方法是预测公司的未来现金流并将其折扣回今天的价值。这将使用折扣现金流 (DCF) 模型来完成。这样的模型可能看起来超出外行人的理解,但它们很容易理解。
我们普遍认为,公司的价值是其未来将产生的所有现金的现值。但是,差价合约只是众多估值指标中的一个,而且并非没有缺陷。如果您想了解有关折扣现金流的更多信息,可以在Simply Wall St分析模型中详细了解此计算背后的理由。
该方法
我们将使用两阶段的DCF模型,顾名思义,该模型考虑了两个增长阶段。第一阶段通常是较高的增长期,在第二个 “稳步增长” 时期逐渐趋于平稳,最终值是第二个 “稳定增长” 时期。在第一阶段,我们需要估算未来十年的业务现金流。在可能的情况下,我们会使用分析师的估计值,但是当这些估计值不可用时,我们会从最新的估计值或报告的价值中推断出之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓其萎缩速度,而自由现金流不断增长的公司在此期间的增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期增长的放缓幅度往往比后来的几年更大。
通常,我们假设今天的一美元比未来一美元更有价值,因此我们将这些未来现金流的价值折现为以今天的美元计算的估计价值:
10 年自由现金流 (FCF) 预测
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF(美元,百万) | -191.2亿美元 | 58.7 亿美元 | 6300 万美元 | 6,630 万美元 | 6,910 万美元 | 7170 万美元 | 7,410 万美元 | 7630 万美元 | 78.4 万美元 | 80.5 万美元 |
增长率估算来源 | 分析师 x2 | 分析师 x2 | 分析师 x1 | 东部时间 @ 5.20% | Est @ 4.32% | 美国东部标准时间 @ 3.71% | Est @ 3.29% | Est @ 2.99% | 美国东部标准时间 @ 2.78% | Est @ 2.63% |
现值(美元,百万)折扣 @ 6.9% | -179 美元 | 51.4 美元 | 51.6 美元 | 50.8 美元 | 49.6 美元 | 48.1 美元 | 46.5 美元 | 44.8 美元 | 43.1 美元 | 41.4 美元 |
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估计的FCF增长率)
10 年期现金流 (PVCF) 的现值 = 2.48 亿美元
第二阶段也称为终值,这是企业在第一阶段之后的现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终值,其未来年增长率等于10年期国债收益率2.3%的5年平均水平。我们将终端现金流折现为今天的价值,股本成本为6.9%。
终端价值 (TV) = FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = 8000万美元× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (6.9% — 2.3%) = 18亿美元
终端价值的现值 (PVTV) = 电视/ (1 + r)10= 18亿美元÷ (1 + 6.9%)10= 9.24 亿美元
因此,总价值或权益价值是未来现金流现值的总和,在本例中为12亿美元。在最后一步中,我们将股票价值除以已发行股票的数量。与目前的5.7美元股价相比,该公司的估值似乎被严重低估,比目前的股价折扣了50%。任何计算中的假设都会对估值产生重大影响,因此最好将其视为粗略的估计,而不是精确到最后一美分。
重要假设
现在,贴现现金流的最重要输入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。投资的一部分是自己对公司未来业绩的评估,因此请自己尝试计算并检查自己的假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑公司未来的资本需求,因此它没有全面反映公司的潜在表现。鉴于我们将Iris Energy视为潜在股东,因此使用权益成本作为贴现率,而不是构成债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了6.9%,这是基于0.996的杠杆测试版。Beta是衡量股票与整个市场相比波动性的指标。我们的测试版来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔值,设定在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定的业务的合理范围。
虹膜能量的 SWOT 分析
- 目前无债务。
- IREN 的资产负债表摘要。
- 在过去的一年中,股东被稀释了。
- 预计明年将实现盈亏平衡。
- 根据市销率和估计的公允价值,物有所值。
- 根据当前的自由现金流,现金流不足 3 年。
- IREN 有足够的能力应对威胁吗?
展望未来:
尽管公司的估值很重要,但它只是公司需要评估的众多因素之一。DCF模型不是完美的股票估值工具。相反,它应该被视为 “需要哪些假设才能低估/高估这只股票的价值?” 的指南如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者其股本成本或无风险利率急剧变化,则产出可能会大不相同。为什么内在价值高于当前股价?对于Iris Energy,我们整理了您应该评估的三个基本因素:
- 风险:例如,冒险吧——Iris Energy有3个警告信号,我们认为你应该注意。
- 未来收益:与同行和整个市场相比,IREN的增长率如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,深入了解未来几年的分析师共识数字。
- 其他稳健的业务:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去表现是强大业务的基础。为什么不浏览我们具有坚实业务基础的股票互动清单,看看是否还有其他你可能没有考虑过的公司!
PS。Simply Wall St每天都会更新每只美国股票的差价合约计算结果,因此,如果您想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,请在此处搜索。
对这篇文章有反馈吗?对内容感到担忧?直接联系我们。 或者,给编辑团队 (at) simplywallst.com 发送电子邮件。
Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
- 分享到weixin
- 分享到qq
- 分享到facebook
- 分享到twitter
- 分享到微博
- 粘贴板
使用浏览器的分享功能,分享给你的好友吧